Manchester City vs. Bournemouth Predictions, Picks, Odds

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

12 minute read

Manchester City’s season hangs in the balance as they prepare for a decisive clash against Bournemouth. With the FA Cup final not quite going the way many City fans have grown accustomed to,  a great deal of importance is placed on securing a Champions League spot that is far from secure. 

Updated on 5/21/25

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Just one point separates them from Aston Villa, and Forest are close behind, level on points but lacking in goal difference. Every game now is a must-win.

Bournemouth, once seen as a dark horse for Europe, have stumbled in the final stretch. Dropping to 11th after a poor run of form, they still have a slim shot at finishing as high as 8th. 

That path starts with beating City and hoping results, and in this case, trophies, go their way. Can the Cherries surprise here, or will the Citizens be too big of a bite for them?

Analysis of the Match

Manchester City entered the season as favourites to win the Premier League after winning four consecutive titles. The campaign hasn’t gone according to plan, but this is still a hugely important game for them as they aim to qualify for the Champions League. 

Pep Guardiola’s side currently sit 4th in the table, two points above Aston Villa in 6th place, who are aiming to sneak into that top five and qualify for Europe’s elite club competition.

The Citizens have swept all before them under Guardiola, so this campaign has to go down as a disappointment. Nevertheless, finishing in the top five would be a massive boost ahead of what looks set to be a major rebuild in the summer. 

Kevin De Bruyne will leave the club. Several other experienced players could follow suit. Qualifying for the Champions League would increase the funds for that summer rebuild. 

Bournemouth has continued to develop under Andoni Iraola this season. The team have produced some excellent football and have European hopes of their own. 

The Cherries’ poor run of form since mid-February has put them on the back foot. They are now 10th in the league and relying on results elsewhere if they are to clinch 8th place, which could be enough to secure a place in one of UEFA’s competitions next season.  

Recent disappointments shouldn’t subtract from how well Bournemouth have played this season. They rank 3rd in the division for xPTS (expected points), which highlights how the underlying data suggests they should have scored more and conceded less. 

Iraola’s side has the tools to hurt City. Their cohesive pressing game can make it difficult for the home side to play through the lines. Bournemouth also has the pace and intelligence the exploit the space behind Pep Guardiola’s high defensive line. 

With both teams needing the points to bolster their European ambitions and Bournemouth having longer to prepare than the home side, we should see a fiercely contested match at the Etihad.

Manchester City Analysis and Form

Manchester City will finish the campaign without a trophy for the first time since Pep Guardiola’s first season in charge. The legendary boss was infuriated by VAR’s decision not to send off Dean Henderson as his team succumbed to defeat against Crystal Palace. Now City’s players must refocus to secure a Champions League place. 

The Citizens’ Premier League form has been solid. They haven’t lost a league game since February 8th, a run of eight matches. Over that period, they have won five, netting an average of 1.75 goals per game. 

Pep’s side has certainly recovered from their disastrous form in November and December. The January signings have been a key part in that upturn in form. Omar Marmoush, despite missing the penalty in the FA Cup Final, has proven highly effective in attack. 

Nico Gonzales has been in and out of the team but has played a key role in some important victories. The 4-0 win over Newcastle in February showcased Marmoush and Gonzales at their best. Nico O’Reilly’s integration into the starting eleven has also provided a massive boost.  

City now sit 6th in the table, but a win would move them up to 3rd, two points ahead of Newcastle. A win over Bournemouth would put them in a commanding position ahead of the final match of the season.

Bournemouth Analysis and Form

Bournemouth have struggled for consistency in the second half of the season. They haven’t won back-to-back league games since January. Since then, they have played 13 in the Premier League and won just three, picking up 13 points in the process.

Their last away match was an impressive 2-1 win over Arsenal. However, they followed that up with a home defeat against Aston Villa. Despite the setbacks in 2025, Andoni Iraola will be relatively pleased with the way his second season in England has panned out.

The Cherries were in contention for a Champions League place at one stage, sitting as high as 5th on matchday 24. Bournemouth may have shown their frailties in the weeks since, but their style continues to develop under Iraola. Quick, direct attacks and man-to-man high pressing will continue to earn them plaudits as they aim to close the gap on the European places.

The underlying data paints a pretty picture. Bournemouth have the fifth-best xG (expected goals) in the Premier League with 62.22, 3.65 more than Arsenal. However, they have only managed 55 goals, making them the third-biggest xG underperformer in the division.

Iraola’s men have a great work ethic out of possession and create plenty of chances with the ball. Becoming more clinical is the focus for Bournemouth ahead of next season, and taking their chances will be key in the final two games of this season.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Manchester City predicted starting lineup:
Ederson; Rico Lewis, Ruben Dias, Gvardiol, O'Reilly; Kovacic, B. Silva; Savinho, De Bruyne, Doku; Marmoush

Bournemouth predicted starting lineup:
Arrizabalaga; Smith, Zabarnyi, Huijsen, Kerkez; Adams, Cook; Tavernier, Kluivert, Semenyo; Evanilson

Pep Guardiola prioritised Saturday’s FA Cup final against Crystal Palace and therefore, he is likely to rest some of his key players like Akanji, Foden and Haaland for Tuesday’s home game. 

O’Reilly should replace the Swiss defender with Gvardiol moving into the centre-back position. As Ake, Stones, and Rodri are injured, it’s likely Kovacic and Bernardo Silva will keep their place in midfield. 

Savinho is expected to start as on the right in place of McAtee, who played from the first minute against Southampton last Saturday. Up front, Doku and Marmoush are poised to replace Foden and Haaland. 

The visitors will likely be without midfielder Alex Scott, who fractured his jaw in a clash with Aston Villa’s Tyrone Mings last weekend. He will be replaced by Cook, with Justin Kluivert coming into the starting XI to roam behind the sole striker, Evanilson. 

Iraola’s back four will be unchanged from the last game, Tavernier and Semenyo will be the two wingers. Sinistierra, Christie, Ouattara, and Unal are all expected to miss the game due to injuries.

Best Bet: Match - Under 33.5 Throw-Ins (-139)

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Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 2 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson