Cy Young Betting Odds & Forecast
MLB Cy Young Betting Odds and Analysis
The Houston Astros rode their two aces all the way to the World Series last season. Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander were both 20-game winners, and the two pitchers split all 30 first place votes in the AL Cy Young Award voting last year. Verlander edged Cole for the award by grabbing 17 of the votes, but Cole is the favorite coming into this season after an incredible postseason.
It’s been two decades since an AL pitcher has won the Cy Young in consecutive seasons. Pedro Martinez was the last player to accomplish the feat, winning the award in 1999 and 2000, so Verlander knows the challenge that awaits him as he looks to win his third Cy Young Award.
Cole’s incredible postseason performance in 2019 is one of the major reasons why he is such a sizable favorite at most Sportsbook. He allowed just one run in three starts during the AL playoffs, and although he wasn’t at his best against the Washington Nationals in the World Series, he finished the postseason with a 4-1 record. He posted a 1.72 ERA and an 0.87 WHIP, and he struck out 47 batters in 36.2 IP.
Verlander did not have the same success in the postseason. Last year’s Cy Young winner was 1-4, and he finished the playoffs with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. He continued to allow the long ball at a prodigious rate, giving up eight home runs in 35.1 IP after allowing 36 home runs in the regular season.
2020 American League Cy Young Betting Odds
- Gerrit Cole +280
- Justin Verlander +800
- Blake Snell +1100
- Shane Bieber +1100
- Charlie Morton +1500
- Mike Clevinger +1500
- Tyler Glasnow +1600
- Carlos Carrasco +2500
- Jose Berrios +2500
- More AL Cy Young Odds
MLB Cy Young Betting Odds and Analysis
Although Jacob deGrom has a record of 21-17 over the last two seasons, he has claimed the last two National League Cy Young Awards. The New York Mets’ ace was almost a unanimous winner last season, being named the top pitcher in the NL on 29 of 30 ballots, but one vote for Hyun-jin Ryu prevented him from being the first unanimous winner since Clayton Kershaw in 2014. It was the second straight year he was deprived of a unanimous win after receiving 29 votes (Max Scherzer received the other vote) in 2018.
His pitching has the Mets optimistic that they can return to the postseason for the first time since 2016 this season. However, the Mets share a division with the 2019 World Series champion Washington Nationals, and they have an ace of their own in Scherzer.
The ace of the New York Mets, Jacob deGrom, has claimed the last two National League Cy Young awards and he's favored again in 2020. (AP)
Repeat winners are not uncommon in the NL with Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw, Scherzer, and deGrom all winning the Cy Young in back-to-back seasons over the last 12 years. We haven’t seen a pitcher win three straight Cy Young Awards since Randy Johnson was named the best pitcher in the NL four straight times from 1999 to 2002 though.
This will largely be portrayed as a race between deGrom and Scherzer, but both pitchers are on the wrong side of 30. Scherzer will turn 36 and deGrom will turn 32 this summer, so durability is a major concern when handicapping this award.
2020 National League Cy Young Betting Odds
- Jacob deGrom +280
- Max Scherzer +400
- Walker Buehler +800
- Jack Flaherty +1000
- Stephen Strasburg +1300
- Luis Castillo +1800
- Trevor Bauer +1800
- Aaron Nola +2000
- Clayton Kershaw +2200
- Noah Syndergaard +2200
- More NL Cy Young Odds
American League 2020 Cy Young Players to Watch
Gerrit Cole - New York Yankees
Playing on the best team money can buy will only help Gerrit Cole in 2020. Cole signed a massive $324 million contract with the New York Yankees this offseason, and he will immediately become the undisputed ace in the rotation. He should pick up more wins than he would with Houston, as the Yankees are likely to have the best offense in baseball behind him. That will help him with more traditional voters, who continue to value wins and losses for pitchers in the analytics era.
According to the analytics, Cole (not Verlander) was the best pitcher in the AL last year. Cole finished the season with an ERA+ of 185, and he posted a 13.8 K/9 rate. He was able to get over half his outs from strikeouts, and that’s incredibly valuable in the juiced ball era.
Justin Verlander - Houston Astros
Verlander has the second lowest Cy Young odds in the AL. He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for the last dozen years, but he just turned 37 in February, and he has pitched a lot of innings over the last two seasons. His postseason struggles may portend trouble on the horizon for the eight-time All-Star, so it’s wise to stay away at this price.
Tyler Glasnow - Tampa Bay Rays
Every other pitcher in the AL is at least 11-1. Among the longer shots, the best value lies in 6’8 Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow was lights out in 12 starts with Tampa Bay in 2019, posting a 1.78 ERA and 0.89 WHIP with 76 strikeouts in 60.2 innings. He missed four months of the season due to injury, but he has had the whole offseason to get healthy, and he is playing for the best organization in baseball when it comes to developing young pitchers.
National League 2020 Cy Young Players to Watch
Jacob deGrom - New York Mets
Since his debut in 2014, deGrom has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. He has registered a 10.3 K/9 over his six seasons with the Mets, and he does not give up home runs. He has allowed just 29 long balls over the last two seasons, and he gave up just 0.4 dingers every nine innings in 2018. deGrom has recorded at least 200 strikeouts and thrown 200 innings in each of the last three seasons, but it’s difficult to bet on him to threepeat at this price.
Max Scherzer - Washington Nationals
Max Scherzer is the strikeout king. Scherzer has recorded at least 230 K’s in each of the last eight seasons, and he has been remarkably consistent over that stretch. He has thrown at least 200 innings in six of the last seven seasons, and he has shown no signs of slowing down although he is getting older. Scherzer has led the NL in WHIP in three of the last four seasons, and his K/9 rate has been tops in the league for four of the last five years. That reliability makes him worthy of a small wager at sportsbooks.
Walker Buehler - Los Angeles Dodgers
Walker Buehler emerged as the next great pitcher for the Dodgers in 2019. Buehler showed that he can handle a hefty workload, throwing two complete games, and he accumulated a 10.6 K/9. He has the benefit of playing on the best team in the NL, which will give him added exposure and a great win-loss record in all likelihood.
Jack Flaherty - St. Louis Cardinals
The only other pitcher with Cy Young odds of 10-1 or less is Jack Flaherty. The Cardinals’ young star improved his control substantially in 2019, allowing fewer walks although he threw 45 more innings than he did in 2018. He led the NL in WHIP with a mark of 0.968, and he plays in a relatively weak division with only a couple great hitters.
Sonny Gray - Cincinnati Reds
If you’re feeling lucky and want to bet on a longshot, take a look at Sonny Gray. Gray was one of the top pitchers in the NL in his first season in the league, and Cincinnati has a knack for getting the most out of older arms. He is a little more of a longshot after undergoing offseason surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow, but his arm has looked great in spring training
2020 MLB Cy Young Predictions
American League - Gerrit Cole +280, Tyler Glasnow +1600
National League - Max Scherzer +400, Jack Flaherty +1000, Sonny Gray +3500
Odds & Betting Markets Subject to Change