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Mar 16, 2021

2021 National League West Baseball Betting Predictions

Mar. 16, 2021

MLB Expert
VegasInsider.com

NL West Betting Odds & Forecast

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2021 NL West Division Odds

  • Los Angeles Dodgers -250
  • San Diego Padres +200
  • San Francisco Giants +4000
  • Arizona Diamondbacks +5000
  • Colorado Rockies +5000

Even without looking at the prices for the NL West this year, baseball bettors had better have already known this division is going to be a two-horse race between the Dodgers and Padres barring something extraordinary somewhere else.

One of the Giants/Diamondbacks/Rockies is going to end up better than their projections if for no other reason then someone's got to win those games played among each other. But for the team that is lucky enough to do that to seriously threaten the division title – at least at this stage – is money best left kept in pocket.

The Dodgers have owned this division for years, having won it for eight consecutive seasons now. Everyone knows that all those division titles typically ended up in playoff heartbreak before last season, but the fact that the Dodgers were able to get over that hump and win a World Series may actually be a negative for this year's division futures.

A World Series title in exchange for not winning the division after eight straight years of doing so is a trade off every Dodger fan will gladly make, but from a historical betting perspective, I want nothing to do with the Dodgers at -250 to win the NL West for a 9th straight season.

That's because defending World Champions have only gone on to win their division the following year five times the past 20 years. It has happened twice in the past four seasons with the Cubs winning the 2017 NL Central following their 2016 championship year, and the Houston Astros doing the same thing the following season, but given what we know about how good the Padres are, and how willingly they've spent money to further improve can really only suggest a play on San Diego at +200.

San Diego hasn't hidden their agenda to become the next dominant NL West organization this next decade and with how they are loading up things on their roster, the prices on the Padres aren't going to get any cheaper.

L.A. probably should have had at least one other World Series during this run of dominance these past handful of years, but guys have been going elsewhere to get paid more to play and even with the additions and reloads the Dodgers continue to make, eventually runs like that run their course. A bit more uncertainty in the depth department for L.A. has a price like -250 nothing but something I'd be looking to fade more often than not.

It just so happens that it works out rather nicely here with the Padres being the only realistic contender to dethrone the champs. Add in the negative history for World Series champs to go on and win their respective division to the Padres current situation of gunning for a decade of dominance in the “Fernando Tatis era”, only a Padres play makes sense here in my view.

2021 National League Pennant Odds

  • Los Angeles Dodgers +175
  • San Diego Padres +390
  • San Francisco Giants +6000
  • Arizona Diamondbacks +8000
  • Colorado Rockies +8000

So the fact that the Dodgers and Padres are priced #1 and #2 in the National League actually serves as more support for backing San Diego at +200 for the division in a roundabout way, but it does also suggest that both may be a little overpriced to go the distance(s) the most expect them too.

But whatever team that wins the NL East had a great season being the best of the bunch in that division, and the NL Central isn't a two-horse race like the NL West is either. Both of those division champs are going to be hard outs in a playoff series, and as we've seen with the Dodgers run prior to 2020, sometime the best team can run through their division/regular season and then get tripped up at the wrong time in a short sample size seven-game series.

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