Weekend Watch

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

The Division Bell
The first-place teams are taking big-time advantage of their cellar-dwelling divisional mates, especially in the American League. The Red Sox and Yankees are both jockeying for first place. They're obviously both fine teams and World Series contenders, but even more so facing the likes of the Blue Jays and Orioles. The Jays have managed a subpar 12-20 record against the AL East, while the O's have the worst divisional record winning percentage at just .281. It's a good thing the Birds aren't in the AL West, however, as they're 0-14 against the Angels, Astros, Athletics, Mariners and Rangers this season. On the flip side, the Indians are 8 1/2 games clear in the AL Central. However, they're under .500 against the East and West, going 4-6 and 8-12. However, they're an impressive 25-13 insde their own division. In other words, bet the Indians inside the Central and fade them elsewhere.

Looking Ahead

Saturday, June 30
The Giants and Diamondbacks will continue their divisional series in the desert, as Dereck Rodriguez squares off against Shelby Miller. The San Francisco rookie, son of Hall of Famer Ivan 'Pudge' Rodriguez, is coming off of a quality start and no-decision against the Padres last time out. He has been solid at home, but he has yet to get his footing on the road. Pudge Jr. is 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA across 12 2/3 innings over two starts and a relief appearance on the road this season. The opposition is hitting .321 against him on the road this season. Miller made his first start of the season after reconstructive elbow surgery, allowing five earned runs, six hits and two walks over 3 2/3 innings in Miami on Monday. The Giants are 14-3 in the past 17 against right-handed starters, while the 'over' is 6-1 in the past seven for the Snakes vs. RHP.

The Red Sox and Yankees will continue their AL East battle, and the Red Sox look to avenge an 8-1 whipping in the series opener in the Bronx on Friday. The Red Sox are 4-1 over their past five games against a team with a winning record, while going 38-15 in the past 53 inside the division. They're 5-1 in their past six games with Sale on the hill against an AL East club, and they're 43-17 in their past 60 vs. RHP. The Yankees counter with Sonny Gray, and they're just 2-5 over his past seven against teams with a winning overall mark while going 0-4 in the past four divisional contests. The Yankees are 20-7 in the past 27 at home vs. LHP, while going 21-7 in their past 28 overall against southpaws. The Red Sox are now 1-5 in the past six meetings at Yankee Stadium.

Also in NL West action, German Marquez of the Rockies and Kenta Maeda of the Dodgers butt heads at Dodger Stadium. Maeda has posted a 4.30 ERA in five starts and a relief appearance on the road over 29 1/3 innings, but he has a sparkling 2.79 ERA in eight assignments at home with 48 strikeouts in just 38 2/3 innings at Chavez Ravine. Marquez also has shocking splits, or perhaps not so shocking since half of his games are a mile above sea level. He is 2-5 with a 7.93 ERA and a .345 opponent batting average in nine home starts, while going 3-3 with a solid 3.07 ERA and .214 opponent batting average on the road. The last time Marquez worked at Dodger Stadium, he allowed one earned run, two hits and two walks with five strikeotus over seven innings in a win May 21.

Weather Report
The wind will be blowing out at Wrigley Field on Saturday afternoon, gusting 10-13 mph out to left field while the heat index will be flirting with the 100-degree mark. Wind will also be an issue at the Oakland Coliseum, blowing 11-15 mph out to the right-center field power alley.

Wind will also be an issue in the early-evening games, blowing from right to left at Busch Stadium II from 10-13 mph with heat indices again flirting with triple digits. In Arlington, the White Sox and Rangers will be battling wind, too, but it will be blowing in from right field to home plate at a 14-17 mph clip. Other than that, there is no threat of precipitation anywhere and the other venues have wind under 10 mph or controlled conditions.

Sunday, July 1
The Rangers will host the White Sox, with Cole Hamels taking the ball. He is 1-5 with a 5.14 ERA with a .268 opponent batting average with 14 homers allowed in 49 innings. On the road he is 3-1 with a 2.05 ERA and .203 opponent average across eight road outings. Perhaps he'll be able to get well against the White Sox, as they're just 12-26 on the road with a minus-105 run differential, fourth-worst in the majors.

The Red Sox and Yankees wrap up their rivalry series under the lights and on national television. Shocking, as this might be the first time these teams have played on ESPN, right?

David Price will be on the hill for the Red Sox looking to avenge an early-season ripping from the Bronx Bombers. Price was tagged for four earned runs, three hits and two walks in just one inning of work in a loss at Fenway against the Yankees on April 11. He has been much better lately, however, winning seven of his past eight decisions while going 4-1 with a 2.90 ERA in five outings in June, all quality starts. The Yankees counter with Luis Severino, who brings a 12-2 record, 2.10 ERA and .201 opponent batting average into the game. He also has 132 strikeouts over just 111 2/3 innings across 17 starts. He has been money at home, going 7-0 with a 1.83 ERA with 69 strikeouts over 59 innings across nine starts with a .187 opponent batting average. However, he is 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in two outings against the BoSox this season, lasting just 11 total innings while Boston is hitting .298 against him.

Andrew Benintendi has been Severino's kryptonite, going 9-for-19 (.474) with two doubles, a triple, two homers and 10 RBI with a 1.524 OPS. Mookie Betts is also 7-for-22 (.318) with three doubles and two RBI with an .855 OPS. Price has struggled against Didi Gregorius, as he is 12-for-28 (.429) with two doubles, a homer, five RBI and a 1.055 OPS. The good news for Price is that Gary Sanchez is sidelined with a Grade I groin strain, as the backstop has five homers in just 12 career at-bats against Price. Giancarlo Stanton hasn't seen much of the veteran southpaw, but he is 4-for-11 (.364) with a double, a triple and three RBI.

Weather Report

The weather on Canada Day will be HOT with a capital H. In Baltimore, temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-90s with heat indices in triple digits. The temperatures will be the same in Cincinnati, and there is a 30 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms which might interrupt the start of the ball game. It won't last long enough for a postponement, however. The Nationals-Phillies, Braves-Cards and Twins-Cubs will all be playing during the daytime, and they'll each be dealing with mid-90's temperatures and heat indices in triple digits.

In Arlington, the wind will be blowing in for a second straight day. It will be a hot wind gusting from 13-16 mph from right field to home plate. It will be much more temperate in Oakland, and the winds will be blowing out from 11-15 mph to the right-center field power alley for the Indians-Athletics.

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