Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 14:03 PM
Weekly Total Talk
|Over-Under Hot Streaks|
Phillin' Up the Unders
The Philadelphia Phillies have been blessing total bettors with a steady stream of 'under' results lately, including Tuesday's 2-1 interleague setback against the Boston Red Sox. It has been a combination of factors leading to the unders lately. First, Philadelphia ranks first in the National League with a 3.26 ERA since the All-Star break, although they're just 12-11 during the span with 206 strikeouts over 215 2/3 innings. They have needed that great pitching, as the offense has been anemic, posting just a .226 batting average in the 23 games since the break, second-worst in the National League only ahead of the lowly Miami Marlins.
The starting pitching staff has been on point, with four of the five starters posting a 3.68 ERA or less since the break. All-Star Aaron Nola leads the way with a 2.16 ERA in his four starts since the Mid-Summer Classic, while Vince Velasquez has a 2.31 ERA in four starts and a relief appearance. Jake Arrieta and Nick Pivetta have matching 3.68 ERA over 29 1/3 innings each over their five outings since the break, with Pivetta posted a sparkling 1.02 WHIP in his five outings with 40 strikeouts and just four walks issued. He has simply been on fire. While Maikel Franco and Nick Williams are batting .302 since the break with eight extra-base hits each, and Rhys Hoskins has belted nine homers in the second half, everyone else on the team is hitting .250 or worse. It's a recipe for plenty of under results until the bats start to get going again.
Wednesday, Aug. 15
We mentioned the Phillies above, and touched on the success of Velasquez a bit. He will take the ball against the Red Sox on Hump Day. The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in Velasquez's past seven assignments while going 4-0 in his past four home outings. The under is also 7-2 over his past nine against teams with a winning overall record. The Phillies have been hitting the under plenty in interleague battles, too, as the under is 16-6-4 in their past 26 against the American League, and 9-1-1 in their past 11 against AL East foes. The under is also a perfect 8-0 in their past eight home games against teams with a road winning percentage over .600, including Tuesday's 2-1 setback against the BoSox. For Boston, the under is 3-0-1 in their past four overall, 3-0-1 in their past four on the road and 9-0-2 in their past 11 when allowed two or fewer runs in their previous game. In addition, the under is 8-2-1 in their past 11 interleague road contests, and 4-0 in their past four against the NL East. Between these teams, the under is 6-0-2 in the past eight meetings, and 3-1-1 in the past five at The Vault.
In the Gateway City, the Cardinals host the Nationals with RHP Jeremy Hellickson facing LHP Austin Gomber. Total bettors will want to slam the under when Hellboy is on the mound for the Nats, as the under is 10-1 over his past 11 assignments on the road, while going 14-2 across his past 16 starts overall. The under is also 4-0 in his past four against teams with a winning overall record and 5-0 in his past five against NL Central foes. For Washington, the under is 36-16 in the past 52 road games while going 11-5 in their past 16 vs. Central clubs. For the Cards, it's the complete opposite, with the over hitting in four in a row, five of the past six at home. The over is 17-8-2 in the past 27 against NL East clubs, too. The over is also 6-1-4 in the past 11 meetings at Busch Stadium II, while going 8-2-1 in the past 11 meetings overall in this series.
It's southpaw-on-southpaw when LHP Derek Holland and LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu lock horns at Chavez Ravine. The under is 3-0-1 in San Francisco's past four overall, while going 15-5-2 in their past 22 road outings and 9-2-2 in their past 13 road games against a left-handed starter. The under is 3-1-1 in Holland's past five starts, 11-4 in his past 15 against teams with a winning overall record and 8-2-1 in his past 11 road outings. The under is also 16-6-2 in Frisco's past 24 inside the division. For the Dodgers, the under is 12-3-1 in their past 16 inside the division, while going 4-0-1 in their past five overall and 6-1 in their past seven against winning sides. The under is also 4-0 in Ryu's past four starts at home, while going 19-9-2 in the past 30 against teams with a winning overall mark.
Betting On The Wind
The winds will be mostly tranquil across baseball, although they'll experience 9-12 mph winds blowing out to left field for the Brewers-Cubs afternoon contest, as well as a 10-14 mph jetstream to right-center field for the Mariners-Athletics contest. Other than that, wind will not be a factor anywhere else.
Thursday, Aug. 16
In the afternoon game between the Nationals and Cards, RHP Tanner Roark will battle RHP Jack Flaherty. The under has hit in 36 of Washington's past 52 road games heading into Wednesday's tilt, whilg going 48-22-3 in their past 73 on the road vs. RHP. The under is 12-5-1 in Tanner Roark's past 18 on the road, but the over is 5-2 in his past seven outings overall. The under is 23-9-2 in Roark's past 34 against teams with a winning overall mark, too. For the Cards, the under is 3-1-1 in their past five vs. RHP, while going 7-3 in the past 10 during the fourth game of a series. However, the over is 6-1 in Flaherty's past seven assignments, and 17-8-2 in their past 27 against NL East clubs. The over is also 4-0 in their past four at home against teams with a losing overall road record.
The Blue Jays and Royals will battle in a matchup of RHPs Sam Gaviglio and Glenn Sparkman. That matchup won't exactly remind people of Jacob deGrom vs. Max Scherzer. The over is 6-2 in Gaviglio's past eight starts on the road, while going 9-3 in Toronto's past 12 games on the road. Head into Wednesday's tilt the over was 8-2 in their past 10 on the road against RHP, too. The over is 7-1 in Kansas City's past eight against a right-handed starter, and 6-1 in their past seven against teams with a losing overall record.
Friday, Aug. 17
Reds RHP Anthony DeSclafani takes the ball for the series opener against the Giants. The righty from the same hometown as Bruce Springsteen has been hard on the opposition lately. He has yielded just one run over his past 14 innings, and the under is 3-1 across his past four outings after a 6-0 over run in his six starts from June 17-July 15.
Rangers LHP Mike Minor will hit the mound looking to stay hot against the Angels on Friday night. Since the All-Star break he is 3-0 with a 3.42 ERA with the opposition hitting just .207 against him. If you're going to pound unders with Minor, he better be at home. That's where he'll be Friday, and he is 5-2 with a 3.33 ERA in 12 starts with a .220 opponent batting average at Globe Life Park as opposed to a dismal 4-4 record and 6.48 ERA in 10 road outings.
Mariners LHP Wade LeBlanc takes the ball looking to stay hot at home. He is 6-1 with a 3.50 ERA across 10 starts and two relief outings at home, and the opposition is hitting just .222 against him in 61 2/3 innings with 53 strikeouts and just 12 walks allowed. The under is 6-1 in LeBlanc's past seven starts overall, too.