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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:53 PM

KBO & CPBL Picks, Odds, Lines and Predictions for May 18

With major US Sports on hold due to COVID-19, many sports bettors are betting on German Soccer, Russian Table Tennis, and the UFC. If betting on a sport that you either do not understand or find too gruesome is as unappealing to you as it is to me, you're in luck!

This is because there is "live breakfast baseball" being played in Asia, with Taiwan (CPBL) and South Korea (KBO) offering up daily betting opportunities.

Similiar to betting on MLB, US legal sportsbooks are offering plenty of betting markets on these leagues and I'll be providing my Top Picks and Best Bets for select cards on VegasInsider.com.

Let's break down the action and make a note that you can follow the action on national television plus major streaming outlets as well.

Tuesday May 19, 2020 Betting Schedule

CPBL - Taiwan

  • Games: 1
  • Time: 6:35 a.m. ET
  • Watch: LIVENow, Twitter

Fubon Guardians (-120) at Uni-President 7/11 Lions (-105)

KBO - South Korea

NC Dinos (-135) at Doosan Bears (+105)
Lotte Giants (-180) at Kia Tigers (+150)
Hanwha Eagles (+140) at KT Wiz (-170)
SK Wyverns (+140) at Kiwoom Heroes (-170)
LG Twins (-145) at Samsung Lions (+115)

Tuesday's Pick of the Day
Kia Tigers Moneyline +150 (William Hill)

The Kia Tigers have started the KBO season with a 5-7 record, while the Lotte Giants have a 7-4 record. Based on Lotte having a better season so far, the oddsmakers believe that the Kia Tigers only have a 40% chance of winning tomorrow. Tomorrow morning’s matchup is the perfect example of a game where early season records are misleading as my model gives the Kia Tigers a 52.6% chance of winning.

The reason why I think Kia should be favored in tomorrow’s game is because their starting pitcher is superior. Kia’s starting pitcher Min-Woo Lee (3.84 FIP in 2019) had a significantly better season last year than Lotte’s starting pitcher Jun-Won Seo (4.98 FIP in 2019). While Lotte will be putting out a slightly better lineup than Kia tomorrow, that lineup is not good enough to justify betting Lotte at -180 when they should be an underdog.

KBO Favorite to Back
LG Twins -145 Moneyline (William Hill)

The LG Twins have started the KBO season with a 7-4 record, while the Samsung Lions are 4-8. While a 4-8 record is awful, Samsung is even worse than their record indicates. Samsung has only one position player who is above average offensively, and that player SS Tyler Saladino who played last season for the Milwaukee Brewers was recently placed on the 10-day injured list. Without Saladino, Samsung by far has the worst offense in the league as 8 out of 9 of their players had a wRC+ less than 94 last year. Even with Saladino, Samsung has been dreadful offensively as they are last in the KBO in runs per game (3.09), batting average (.228), and on-base plus slugging percentage (.648).

My model gives the LG Twins a 62.7% chance of winning tomorrow, and the only reason they aren’t favored more is because Samsung has an edge in starting pitching in tomorrow’s game. While LG’s starting pitcher Chan-Gyu Lim has started the season better Samsung’s pitcher David Buchanan, Buchanan had a much better season last year than Lim. I will be continuing to bet against Samsung until the betting market correctly values them.

CPBL Pick of the Day
No Bet

While over the weekend CPBL odds were inefficient, tomorrow’s odds are sadly efficient. My model believes that the Uni-President 7-11 Lions should be -117 moneyline favorites and they are currently -107 moneyline underdogs. I will only bet on the Uni-President 7-11 Lions moneyline if they are +120 or better underdogs.

Tuesday's Team Totals to Bet
Hanwha Eagles Over 3.5 Runs (-150) (FoxBet)
Lotte Giants Under 5.5 Runs (-112) (Draftkings)

While the total runs scored in a game by both teams is one of the most popular types of baseball bets, I believe that betting on just the amount of runs that one team scores provides better value for sports handicappers. A strategy that I have been using frequently in the KBO this season is to bet the over on the team totals for underdog offenses that are undervalued and the under on the team totals for favorites whose offenses is overvalued.

My model projects the Lotte Giants to only score 4.6 runs and betting team to score fewer than 5.5 runs at an only -112 juice is exceptionally good value when considering their opponent’s pitching.

For the Hanwha Eagles, the -150 juice on betting them to score over 3.5 runs is worth the squeeze. The team total is low for the Hanwha Eagles not just because they are an underdog, but because so far this season they have the second worst offense in the league and key position players for them are injured. Despite this the average position player for tomorrow’s projected lineup had an above average wRC+ last season and I expect Hanwha to eventually regress to the mean. My model projects Hanwha to score 4.63 runs in tomorrow’s game.

Best Bets Tracker

Kia Tigers Moneyline +150 (William Hill)
LG Twins Moneyline -145 (William Hill)
Hanwha Eagles Over 3.5 Runs (-150) (FoxBet)
Lotte Giants Under 5.5 Runs (-112) (Draftkings)


Odds Subject to Change
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