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KBO & CPBL Picks, Odds, Lines and Predictions for Wednesday, June 3

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read
Tomorrow June 3rd, we have a full plate of Asian “Breakfast Baseball” as all KBO (South Korea) and CPBL (Taiwan) teams will be playing.

The odds for both CPBL games are efficient tomorrow, so I will be steering clear of the CPBL and only betting on KBO games.

For tomorrow’s games I am backing two heavy moneyline favorites, and two run-lines.

Wednesday, June 3, 2020 Betting Schedule

CPBL - Taiwan

  • Games: 2
  • Time: 6:35 a.m. ET
  • Watch: LIVENow, Twitter

Rakuten Monkeys (-133) at CTBC Brothers (+105)
Uni-President 7/11 Lions (+185) at Fubon Guardians (-250)

KBO - South Korea

SK Wyverns (+155) at NC Dinos (-190)
Doosan Bears (-130) at KT Wiz (+100)
Samsung Lions (+170) at LG Twins (-230)
Lotte Giants (+125) at Kia Tigers (-155)
Kiwoom Heroes (-130) at Hanwha Eagles (+100)

Wednesday's Pick of the Day
NC Dinos Moneyline -190 (Bet now at PointsBet)
NC Dinos Run Line -1.5 +115 (Bet now at Bet365)

In my last two articles, I supported the heavily favored NC Dinos and my logic remains the same despite yesterday’s disappointing loss 8-2 loss against the SK Wyverns. With a 120-game regular season, the worst teams will beat the best teams occasionally but in the long run the better team will win most of the time. In tomorrow’s rematch against the SK Wyverns, The NC Dinos will show why they are 1st in the KBO and the SK Wyverns are 9th out of 10 teams. My model gives the NC Dinos a 72% chance of winning when the -190 moneyline odds imply that NC only has a 65.5% chance.

Despite the KBO having a long regular season, this is not an inconsequential game for the NC Dinos as they are first in the KBO with a 18-6 record and have every reason to keep winning. This is because in the KBO having a higher place in the KBO regular season standings means needing to play fewer post-season games in order to win the Korean Series. If a team is in 1st place in the KBO, they skip the line of other postseason KBO teams to the final round of the Korean Series. With a lead of only two games ahead of the 2nd place LG Twins and 3 games of the defending KBO champion Doosan Bears, a loss would most likely mean losing a game in the standings as both LG and Doosan are favored in their games tomorrow. I believe that the KBO standings are a factor that most new KBO bettors are overlooking in handicapping KBO games.

One reason why I am betting on not only the Moneyline, but the Run Line as well is because the NC Dinos have a much better lineup than the SK Wyverns. SK is also second to last in runs per game at 4.33 runs per game compared to NC who are second in the league with an average of 6.42 runs per game. With such a large gap in both team’s offenses, it is possible to imagine a scenario where NC jumps to a large lead and holds it.

The only way in which SK could win is if their Starting Pitcher Geon-Wook Lee who has limited experience manages to pitch the best game of his five-year career where he has only pitched 10 2/3 innings. In Lee’s first career start last week, Lee had a solid outing pitching 5 1/3 innings and giving up only 1 earned run against the Doosan Bears who have the best offense in the league. While that was a strong performance that should not be discounted, In order for SK to either win or not lose badly they have to rely on Lee to replicate that performance and for the SK bullpen perform well. I don’t see that happening, so I am betting on both the moneyline and the run line even though I am typically a moneyline only bettor. Favorites have surprisingly been undervalued on run-line wagers this year as betting the run-line for every favorite this season would have yielded you a profit, but betting on the moneyline would have yielded you a small loss.

KBO Favorite to Back
LG Twins Moneyline -230 (DraftKings)
LG Twins Run Line -1.5 -110 (DraftKings)

Despite having to bet $230 to win $100, betting on the LG Twins to beat the Samsung Lions is a fantastic price at -230 moneyline odds. According to my model the LG Twins have a 76.4% chance of winning suggesting that they should be -324 money line favorites. Throughout the whole season, the Samsung Lions have been my favorite KBO team to bet against and they are currently overperforming with an 11-14 record.

Samsung’s biggest Achilles heel is their lackluster offense which is camouflaged by the fact that they average 5.17 runs per game when the league average is 5.29. While on the surface this looks normal, Samsung also plays their home games in the most hitter friendly ballpark in the KBO and this skews their offensive numbers. Samsung has only two players in their starting lineup with a wRC+ over 92, and my model projects the Samsung Lions to only score 3.63 runs against the LG Twins.

Usually teams with poor lineups can occasionally win games with strong pitching, however Samsung is at a disadvantage in that department as well for tomorrow’s game. Samsung’s Starting Pitcher is 18-year old rookie Yoon-Dong Heo who made his KBO debut on an ESPN2 broadcast this week. Heo is a highly touted rookie who pitched 5 shutout innings against the Lotte Giants last week, but he is no Doc Gooden. While he had an impressive shutout performance, he got incredibly lucky as in those 5 innings of play he gave up 4 hits and 4 walks and only had 1 strikeout. I have a hard time imaging any pitcher let alone an 18-year old rookie giving up that many hits and walks without giving up any runs again. While the quality of play in the KBO is not as good as the MLB, it is not a league where a boy can dominate men so easily. Based on Samsung’s pitcher and their lack of offensive talent, I have a hard time seeing how the LG Twins do not obliterate the Samsung Lions.

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