Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:53 PM
KBO & CPBL Picks, Odds, Lines and Predictions for Tuesday, June 9
Tomorrow June 9th, we have a full slate of 5 KBO (South Korea) games and one CPBL (Taiwan) game. The moneyline odds for the sole CPBL game are efficient for tomorrow’s game, so I will be steering clear of the CPBL and only betting on KBO games.
For tomorrow’s games I am going to be a contrarian bettor as I am backing two moneyline underdogs, and a run total under for a high scoring game.
If you are the type of KBO bettor that has the stomach to bet against the conventional wisdom, then you should tail my plays for tomorrow morning’s games.
Tuesday, June 9, 2020
CPBL - Taiwan
- Games: 1
- Time: 6:35 a.m. ET
- Watch: LIVENow, Twitter
Rakuten Monkeys (-250) at Uni-President 7/11 Lions (+180)
KBO - South Korea
Doosan Bears (+145) at NC Dinos (-182)
Hanwha Eagles (+145) at Lotte Giants (-186)
SK Wyverns (+210) at LG Twins (-265)
Kia Tigers (-150) at KT Wiz (+117)
Kiwoom Heroes (-129) at Samsung Lions (+107)
Tuesday's Pick of the Day
Doosan Bears Moneyline +145 (Bet now at DraftKings)
Under 12.5 Total Runs -110 (Bet now at Bet365)
The three-game series between the Doosan Bears and the NC Dinos is the KBO equivalent of a Yankees-Astros regular season series. Of the 10 teams in the KBO, NC is in first place and Doosan is only 4 games behind in second place. The final KBO regular season standings determine how many playoff series each team must play in order to win the Korean Series. If a team finishes in first place, they only have to play in one series. NC has played the best of any KBO team this year as they are 23-6 winning 79.3% of their games, but the Doosan Bears with their 19-10 record should not be overlooked as they are the defending 2019 Korean Series champion.
If Doosan wants to have the best chance to win the Korean Series at the end of the year, they need to finish in 1st place in the regular season as they did in 2019. Tomorrow’s game is nationally televised on ESPN, and I am going to go out on a limb by predicting that the betting public will bet on the NC Dinos to win and for the run total to go over.
In my last three articles, I supported the heavily favored NC Dinos and it appears that the betting public has been supporting the NC Dinos as well. As a result, bettors looking to back the NC Dinos from now on will probably have to pay a premium in order to bet on the Dinos. Despite NC’s -182 moneyline odds implying that NC has a 64.6% chance of winning, my model sees tomorrow’s game as a tossup. As a result, I am backing the Doosan Bears moneyline at +145 odds implying that they only have a 40.8% chance of winning when my model has them at a 48.9% chance.
One reason why the NC Dinos are in first place is because they lead the KBO with a colossal average of 7.14 runs per game. The Doosan Bears are not far behind the NC Dinos as they are second in the KBO with an average of 6.14 runs per game. However, despite what appears to be a wide gap between the two teams’ lineups, my model views each team equally. Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) is a park-adjusted sabermetric statistic that measures the total runs that each player individually creates related to the league average. With the average wRC+ in the KBO at 100, both the Doosan Bears and NC Dinos are substantially better than the league average and they are surprisingly nearly identical to each other. The average wRC+ for a player in tomorrow’s NC Dinos lineup this year is 120.4, while for the Doosan Bears it is 120.2. Based on this, I believe that betting on the Doosan Bears to win outright as +145 moneyline underdogs is the best betting strategy for tomorrow morning’s game.
The second-best betting strategy for tomorrow’s Doosan/NC game is to bet that under 12.5 runs will be scored. It is a contrarian approach to take as you have the two best offense teams in the KBO playing against each other, but my model projects only 10.82 total runs to be scored. In addition to the offensive powers of both teams, both teams are not using their best starting pitchers. For the Doosan Bears, 19-year old Je-Yeong Jo will be making his KBO Debut. Jo is so young that he wasn’t even alive when Outkast released Ms. Jackson, yet my model projects Jo to pitch 5 innings giving up only 3 runs which is less than a quarter of the runs needed for the run total to go over.
Facing Jo is NC Dinos starting pitcher Sung-Young Choi who in only 7 innings of baseball this year has a 5.14 ERA. However, using these numbers to justify betting the over is a misuse of a small sample size as Choi had a 3.94 ERA and 4.21 FIP in 82.1 innings of baseball in 2019. For 13 or more runs to be scored in tomorrow’s game, both starting pitchers have to pitch poorly, and I don’t see that happening. For that reason, I will be sweating out tomorrow’s game by betting that under 12.5 runs will be scored at -110 juice.
KBO Underdog to Back
Hanwha Eagles Moneyline +145 (DraftKings)
The Hanwha Eagles by far have the worst record in the KBO this season as they are 7-23 winning only 23.3% of their games. Hanwha has lost 14 games in a row, and as a result their manager just resigned after Sunday’s loss. The Hanwha Eagles opponent the Lotte Giants on the other hand are 14-15 and are only half a game behind the Kia Tigers for the final KBO postseason spot. It would appear on paper that this is a game in which KIA should be heavily favored at odds better than the -186 moneyline odds they have now, but my model actually gives the Hanwha Eagles a 51.9% chance of beating the Lotte Giants.
The biggest reason why I believe that Hanwha is going to beat Lotte has nothing to do with them being embarrassed by their losing streak, rather it is because of their edge in starting pitching for tomorrow’s game. Warrick Saupold will be pitching for the Hanwha Eagles, and he is the type of innings eater that they need in order to break their 14-game losing streak. Saupold is currently averaging 6.83 innings per start with a 3.07 ERA. With a starting pitcher who can pitch for a long time while giving up few runs, it is going to be hard for Lotte to jump to a lead. In addition to Saupold being a strong pitcher, Hanwha’s bullpen quietly has the lowest FIP in the KBO. Opposing Saupold is Lotte Starting Pitcher Adrian Sampson who in two starts this season has only pitched 7.2 innings with a 9.39 ERA. While I do not think that Sampson is as bad as his statistics in limited action suggests, he is nowhere near as reliable as Warrick Saupold on the mound.
The only way in which Hanwha could lose tomorrow’s game besides the fact that they are good at losing, is the fact that they have the worst offense in the KBO so far this season. Hanwha currently is last in the KBO in runs per game as they average only 3.33 runs per game. Additionally, the average player in the Hanwha Eagles lineup has a wRC+ of only 68. However, all of this should be taken with a grain of salt as Hanwha’s lineup last year was relatively average, and the Lotte Giants are not exactly the 2001 San Francisco Giants. Lotte currently is second to last in runs per game as they average only 4.14 runs per game. I believe that Hanwha’s large edge in pitching will help them overcome Lotte’s slight edge in hitting and that is why I am betting on Hanwha to win outright at +145 moneyline odds.
Best Bets Tracker
- Doosan Bears Moneyline +145 (DraftKings)
- Under 12.5 Total Runs -110 (Bet365)
- Hanwha Eagles Moneyline +145 (DraftKings)
Record: 12-8, +1.84 Units, +9.2% ROI