Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:53 PM
KBO Picks, Odds, Lines and Predictions for July 14
It is July 13th, and we are still without Major League Baseball but luckily we still have live baseball being played in South Korea (KBO), Japan (NPB), and Taiwan (CPBL).
While we must wait the MLB season to start in less than two weeks, we have a full slate of KBO baseball tomorrow.
I''ve already started handicapping the MLB season and you can get my Win Projections and top Win Totals picks for the upcoming shortened season.
For tomorrow’s KBO slate I am backing a moneyline underdog, a moneyline favorite, and a run line.
Tuesday, July 14, 2020
SK Wyverns (+160) at Doosan Bears (-200)
LG Twins (+135) at Lotte Giants (-167)
NC Dinos (+102) at Kiwoom Heroes (-127)
Kia Tigers (+130) at Samsung Lions (-148)
Hanwha Eagles (+185) at KT Wiz (-230)
KBO Play of the Day
Doosan Bears Moneyline -200 (DraftKings)
Doosan Bears Run Line -1.5 +105 (FoxBet)
For my KBO play of the day for tomorrow’s KBO slate, I am backing the heavily favored Doosan Bears against the SK Wyverns. Doosan is currently tied for 2nd place in the KBO standings out of 10 teams with a 34-24 record.
Opposing the Bears are the SK Wyverns, who are in 9th place in the KBO standings with a 18-41 record. While it is frequently inadvisable to place moneyline wagers on heavy favorites, the gap between Doosan and SK is much bigger than the Bears moneyline odds of -200 indicate. That is why I am not only betting on the Doosan moneyline, but the -1.5 run line at +105 odds as well.
One reason why Doosan is going to win tomorrow’s game by a large margin is because of their hitting. Doosan currently ranks 2nd in the KBO in runs per game with an average of 6.22 runs per game. Of the 9 position players in the Doosan’s projected lineup for tomorrow’s game, 8 out of 9 position players have a wRC+ of at least 108. The Doosan lineup is the biggest reason why they are winning team, due to the fact that their pitching has given up the 3rd most runs of all KBO teams.
The SK Wyverns lineup on the other hand is the mirror opposite of the Doosan Bears. The Wyverns are 9th out of all 10 KBO teams in runs per game as they average only 3.71 runs per game. 5 out of 9 position players in the Wyverns projected lineup for tomorrow’s game have a wRC+ of 84.3 or lower this season.
The Wyverns lineup is probably the biggest reason why they have the second worst run differential in the KBO as they have a -88 run differential this season. On average the SK Wyverns lose each game by 1.49 runs, even without having to play teams as strong as the Doosan Bears every day. Based on that, betting on the Doosan -1.5 run line at +105 odds feels like a steal.
While Doosan clearly has the best lineup for tomorrow’s game, they also have a slight edge in pitching. The Doosan bullpen is tied for the lowest FIP in the KBO with a FIP of 4.50. The Wyverns bullpen has the 2nd highest FIP in the KBO with a 5.48 FIP. With such a wide disparity in talent between the two teams bullpens, it helps Doosan as the Wyverns have a slight edge in starting pitching for tomorrow’s game.
The starting pitcher for the Doosan Bears for tomorrow’s game is Young-Ha Lee who is 3-4 with a 5.79 ERA, and a 4.90 FIP. Opposing Lee is Wyverns Starting Pitcher Geon-Wook Lee who is 3-2 with a 2.95 ERA, and a 4.41 FIP.
While Geon-Wook Lee appears to be much better than Young-Ha Lee on paper, Geon-Wook Lee’s FIP is only half a run better than Young-Ha Lee’s FIP. While Young-Ha Lee had a rough start to the beginning of the 2020 KBO Season, in his last three starts he has pitched 14.1 innings giving up only 4 earned runs, 11 hits, and 1 walk. If Young-Ha Lee pitches the way that he has pitched recently, the Wyverns have no chance against Doosan.
Even if Young-Ha Lee pitches poorly, I have a hard time to seeing how Doosan can’t score enough runs against the Wyverns. That is why I am relying on Doosan’s edge in hitting in order to profit off a Doosan Bears moneyline wager at -200 odds and a Doosan Bears -1.5 run line bet at +105 odds.
KBO Underdog to Back
Kia Tigers Moneyline +130 Moneyline (DraftKings)
For my KBO underdog of the day, I am betting on the Kia Tigers to beat the Samsung Lions outright as +130 moneyline underdogs. This is because my model views this game as a tossup where Samsung should only be slight favorites. Samsung is currently in 6th place in the KBO standings with a 30-29 record. Samsung has overperformed expectations this season, and they are starting to revert to the mean as they are in the middle of a 4-game losing streak.
Facing off against Samsung are the Kia Tigers who are in 4th place in the KBO standings with a 31-25 record. While Kia is only 2.5 games ahead of Samsung in the KBO standings, Kia is clearly a better team. That is why I am betting on the Kia Tigers moneyline at +130 odds.
The reason why Samsung is favored is because of their hitting. Out of all 10 KBO teams, Samsung is 6th in the KBO in runs per game with an average of 5.25 runs per game. Kia is right behind Samsung in scoring as they are 7th in the KBO in runs per game as they average 5.20 runs per game. When you factor in the fact that Samsung plays in the most hitter friendly KBO stadium, you can conclude that Kia has a slightly better lineup than Samsung. While Kia may appear to have better hitting than Samsung, the Kia lineup has been besieged with injuries.
Looking at tomorrow’s projected lineup for both teams, Samsung has the edge in scoring. This is because Samsung is projected to field an average offensive team, while Kia is projected to field a below-average offensive team. However, Samsung only has a slight edge in hitting and that is one of the reasons as to why I am backing the Kia Tigers as moneyline underdogs.
While Samsung has a slightly better lineup for tomorrow’s game, Kia has better pitching. The Kia bullpen is tied for the lowest FIP in the KBO with a FIP of 4.50. The starting pitcher for Samsung for tomorrow is David Buchanan who is 7-3 with a 3.82 ERA, and a 4.84 FIP. Buchanan may appear to be an elite KBO pitcher, however his FIP is a full run higher than his ERA.
Squaring off against Buchanan is Kia Starting Pitcher Min-Woo Lee who is 4-3 with a 4.92 ERA, and a 4.47 FIP. While Buchanan based on ERA appears to be a significantly better pitcher than Lee, Lee is the better pitcher this season as Lee has the lowest FIP. When you factor in Kia’s bullpen in with Min-Woo Lee’s pitching it is hard to see why the Samsung Lions are modest moneyline favorites. That is why I am betting on the Kia Tigers to win outright at +130 moneyline underdogs.