Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:53 AM
MLB Total Over-Under Picks for Monday July 27
Monday's and Friday's will typically bring new series matchups in this shortened MLB campaign, and it will be on those days this year that totals bettors can look here for some intriguing totals trends that may or may not be helpful to their handicapping process.
Trends are what bettors make of them, but I like to view them as nothing more that reporting on what's happened in the past and having very minimal impact in predictive equations.
Having that nice trend in support of a side you already like can add that extra bit of confidence though.
So here are five interesting total trends for today's MLB action with a few free plays to discuss to boot. Most of these trends do date back to last year's action, so keep that in mind as well.
Five Trends to Watch
- The Milwaukee Brewers are 1-10 O/U when coming off their last 11 defeats
- The Toronto Blue Jays are 0-4 O/U in last four road games vs NL; 1-5 O/U in last six vs NL overall
- The Tampa Bay Rays are 9-0 O/U in last nine games vs NL
- The Chicago White Sox are 15-5-1 O/U in their last 21 games as a road underdog
- The Detroit Tigers are 5-15-1 O/U in their last 21 games overall
MLB Over-Under Total Picks Monday, July 27, 2020
Best Bet - Over
Atlanta/Tampa Bay Over 8.5
Liking the 'over' already and finding that 9-0 O/U trend for Tampa is a classic example of using trends as support evidence for you case. I can assure you this 9-0 SU run did nothing more but help confirm the wager being made.
This play is more about two offenses, who outside of Atlanta's Opening day loss, have really showed some quality consistent levels in terms of production.
Tampa's put up at least four runs in all three of their games, while the Braves have done so in two of their three contests. A 4-4 game cashes an 'over' ticket here, and with the Braves 5-1 O/U in their last six games in AL ballparks, there is plenty of supporting evidence for this play for those that still may need an extra push.
Best Bet – Under
New York Mets/Boston Under 11
Working against some line movement here as the total did open at 10.5 and was immediately bet upwards. I'm sure part of that has to do with it being at Fenway Park, part of it with the talent both offenses have, and part of it questioning the talents of the two starters (and bullpens behind them).
You won't get strong arguments from me regarding most of that, but I am willing to give Mets starter Michael Wacha the benefit of the doubt in making his season debut against a double digit total.
The Red Sox are likely in for somewhat of a bullpen game with Josh Osich starting, but bullpen games don't automatically equal runs for the opponent. And after some rougher outings for Boston's bullpen against Baltimore over the weekend, they could use a strong bounce back game.
The Mets may have plenty of talent offensively, but they've had consistency issues for a while now with all the talent they've got. New York also brought Wacha in to see if they could regain the form he had in his younger days in a St. Louis uniform, and unless he was pitching at Coors Field, it was rare for a total in a Wacha start to sniff double digits.
Ultimately, that's the be all end all for me with this game now, as this number is just too high, especially considering it will now take 12 total runs to lose. Give me the under in a game that could likely end up 5-4 or 6-4 in the end.
Best Bet – Team Total
Atlanta Over 3.5 runs
Not much of a need to further expand on this, but with the 'over' for the full game already on the card, and five of the six games for the respective teams seeing them score at least four runs per game, going 'over' the lower number of the two when it sits at 3.5 is a nice correlated option.
This is not necessarily a commentary on me liking the Braves to win the game outright, but I've never been as high on Tyler Glasnow as most, and the Braves have the type of depth in their lineup to really make things difficult for Glasnow tonight.
Get a couple runs off him early and a couple late, and the Braves should find their way to four runs, whether or not they end up winning the game.