MLB Edge Plays for Thursday, July 7

Kevin Rogers Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

Our VI sports betting experts break down the tech trends and edge plays for games on Thursday, July 7. Check out the game trends below along with the top edge plays to consider for today's games. Also get expert premium picks and prop plays from our VI Handicapping stable!

Updated on 05/05/2024

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EDGE PLAYS TRACKER (52-51-5, -260)

THURSDAY'S EDGE PLAYS

• Royals-Astros Over 7.5 (-115) at Caesars
• Pirates-Reds Over 9 (-105) at Caesars
• Phillies ML (-165) at WynnBet
• Orioles -1.5 (+170) at Caesars
• Yankees-Red Sox Under 9 (+100) at SI
• Cardinals-Braves Under 9 (+105) at WynnBet
• Rockies-Diamondbacks Over 9 (-118) at FanDuel

Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros

• Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
• Network(s): ATSW, BSKC, MLBN
• Away Pitcher: Kris Bubic (1-5, 7.06 ERA)
• Home Pitcher: Justin Verlander (10-3, 2.03 ERA)
• Venue Runs Per Game: 7.9
• Venue O/U Record: 16-20-2

Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-115) at Caesars

MONEYLINE

• Houston has won seven straight home games when facing the AL after losing the game prior.
• Houston is 5-1 SU last six games.
• Houston is 5-2 SU last seven home games when facing Kansas City.

RUN TOTAL

• Kansas City has gone OVER the total in four straight games.
• Kansas City has gone OVER the total in four of five road games.
• Houston has gone OVER the total in five of six home games.
• OVER has hit in six of seven meetings.
• OVER has hit in four of five meetings in Houston.

RUN LINE

• Houston is 7-2 ATS last nine home games.
• Kansas City is 13-5 ATS last 18 games when playing in Houston.
• Kansas City is 6-1 ATS last seven games.
• Kansas City is 5-1 ATS last six road games.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds

• Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
• Network(s): ATPT, BSOH, MLBN
• Away Pitcher: Roansy Contreras (2-2, 4.09 ERA)
• Home Pitcher: Mike Minor (1-5, 6.82 ERA)
• Venue Runs Per Game: 10.9
• Venue O/U Record: 24-16-1

Best Bet: Over 9 (-105) at Caesars

MONEYLINE

• Pittsburgh has won six straight games when facing a NL team with a losing record during the daytime.
• Pittsburgh is 2-15 SU last 17 games when playing in Cincinnati.
• Cincinnati is 2-6 SU last eight games.
• Cincinnati is 2-12 SU last 14 home games.

RUN TOTAL

• OVER has hit in four straight meetings when playing in Cincinnati.
• Pittsburgh has gone OVER the total in five of seven games.
• Cincinnati has gone OVER the total in 10 of 15 games.
• Cincinnati has gone OVER the total in six of nine home games.

RUN LINE

• Cincinnati is 2-6 ATS last eight games.
• Cincinnati is 2-9 ATS last 11 home games.
• Pittsburgh is 3-10 ATS last 13 games when playing in Cincinnati.

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies

• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• Network(s): MASN, NSPA
• Away Pitcher: Joan Adon (1-11, 6.97 ERA)
• Home Pitcher: Bailey Falter (0-2, 4.88 ERA)
• Venue Runs Per Game: 8.5
• Venue O/U Record: 21-20-3

Best Bet: Phillies ML (-165) at WynnBet

MONEYLINE

• Washington has lost 12 straight divisional games when playing on a Thursday.
• Washington is 1-6 SU last seven games.
• Washington is 2-13 SU last 15 games when facing Philadelphia
• Philadelphia is 4-2 SU last six home games.

RUN TOTAL

• Philadelphia has gone UNDER in five of six divisional games when playing during the daytime.
• Washington has gone UNDER the total in five of seven road games.
• OVER has cashed in 12 of 15 meetings.

RUN LINE

• Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS last six home games.
• Washington is 4-1 ATS last five games when facing Philadelphia.
• Washington is 2-5 ATS last seven games.
• Washington is 4-1 ATS last five road games.

Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Network(s): BSW, MASN2, ESPN+
• Away Pitcher: Chase Silseth (1-2, 5.23 ERA)
• Home Pitcher: Jordan Lyles (4-7, 4.70 ERA)
• Venue Runs Per Game: 8.2
• Venue O/U Record: 18-19-1

Best Bet: Orioles -1.5 (+170) at Caesars

MONEYLINE

• Baltimore has seen the underdog win four straight games.
• Baltimore is 4-1 SU last five games.
• Baltimore is 5-1 SU last six home games.
• Los Angeles is 1-4 SU last five games when facing Baltimore.
• Los Angeles is 1-4 SU last five road games.

RUN TOTAL

• OVER has hit in six of seven meetings.
• Baltimore has gone UNDER the total in 12 of 16 games.
• Baltimore has gone UNDER the total in four of six home games.

RUN LINE

• Baltimore is 16-5 ATS last 21 games.
• Baltimore is 8-3 ATS last 11 home games.
• Baltimore is 5-0 ATS last five games when facing Los Angeles.
• Los Angeles is 3-8 ATS last 11 games.
• Los Angeles is 7-14 ATS last 21 road games.

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Network(s): YES, NESN, MLBN
• Away Pitcher: Gerrit Cole (7-2, 2.99 ERA)
• Home Pitcher: Josh Winckowski (3-2, 3.12 ERA)
• Venue Runs Per Game: 9
• Venue O/U Record: 15-21-3

Best Bet: Under 9 (+100) at SI

MONEYLINE

• Boston has seen the underdog win six of seven games.
• New York is 18-7 SU last 25 games.
• New York is 8-2 SU last 10 games when facing Boston.
• New York is 4-2 SU last six games when playing in Boston.
• Boston is 2-4 SU last six games.
• Boston is 5-2 SU last seven home games.

RUN TOTAL

• New York has gone UNDER the total in five of six games when facing the AL.
• New York has gone UNDER the total in four of six road games.
• New York has gone UNDER the total in six of eight games.
• UNDER has hit in six of eight meetings when playing in Boston.
• Boston has gone UNDER the total in four of six games.
• Boston has gone UNDER the total in four of six home games.
• UNDER has cashed in 10 of 14 meetings.

RUN LINE

• Boston is 2-4 ATS last six games.
• New York is 9-3 ATS last 12 games when facing Boston.
• New York is 5-1 ATS last six games when playing in Boston.

St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves

• Time: 7:20 p.m. ET
• Network(s): BSMW, BSSO, MLBN
• Away Pitcher: Matthew Liberatore (2-1, 5.66 ERA)
• Home Pitcher: Spencer Strider (4-2, 2.87 ERA)
• Venue Runs Per Game: 9.1
• Venue O/U Record: 22-20-2

Best Bet: Under 9 (+105) at WynnBet

MONEYLINE

• Atlanta has won nine straight home games when facing the NL Central.
• Atlanta is 5-1 SU last six games.
• Atlanta is 14-3 SU last 17 home games.
• Atlanta is 5-0 SU last five games when facing St. Louis.
• St. Louis is 1-6 SU last seven road games.
• St. Louis is 1-6 SU last seven games when playing in Atlanta.

RUN TOTAL

• St. Louis has gone UNDER the total in seven straight games when facing the NL East at night.
• Atlanta has gone UNDER the total in five straight games.
• UNDER has hit in five of seven meetings.
• UNDER has hit in four of five meetings when playing in Atlanta.
• St. Louis has gone UNDER the total in five of six road games.

RUN LINE

• St. Louis is 2-5 ATS last seven games when playing in Atlanta.
• St. Louis is 1-5 ATS last six games.
• St. Louis is 1-6 ATS last seven road games.
• Atlanta is 5-0 ATS last five games when facing St. Louis.
• Atlanta is 5-1 ATS last six games.
• Atlanta is 4-1 ATS last five home games.

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Network(s): ATRM, BSAZ
• Away Pitcher: Austin Gomber (4-7, 6.53 ERA)
• Home Pitcher: Dallas Keuchel (0-1, 9.64 ERA)
• Venue Runs Per Game: 8.5
• Venue O/U Record: 15-26-3

Best Bet: Over 9 (-118) at FanDuel

MONEYLINE

• Colorado has lost seven of eight games when playing in Arizona as the favorite after losing the game prior.
• Arizona is 4-2 SU last six home games.
• Colorado is 1-4 SU last five games when playing in Arizona.
• Colorado is 2-4 SU last six games.
• Colorado is 1-7 SU last eight road games.

RUN TOTAL

• Arizona has gone OVER the total in four of five divisional games when playing at night.
• Arizona has gone OVER the total in seven of 10 games.
• Colorado has gone UNDER the total in four of six road games.

RUN LINE

• Colorado is 2-4 ATS lat six games.
• Colorado is 1-4 ATS last five road games.
• Arizona is 4-2 ATS last six home games.
• Colorado is 1-4 ATS last five games when playing in Arizona.

Kevin Rogers

Kevin has been handicapping professionally since 2007 at VegasInsider before shifting to ScoresAndOdds. He focuses on MLB, NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, and NHL and mainly uses trends, systems, and situations as his top handicapping angles. More from Kevin Rogers