Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game 3 Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Atlanta Braves travel to take on the Philadelphia Phillies Friday for Game 3 of the NLDS. First pitch is scheduled for 4:37 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and can be viewed on FS1.  

Updated on 04/26/2024

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ATLANTA BRAVES vs. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING PREDICTION

The Atlanta Braves tied this series 1-1 after winning Wednesday, 3-0. The offense had just four runs throughout the game but managed to drive in three runs in the bottom of the sixth. Keep an eye on Ronald Acuna Jr’s status moving forward, as he was hit in the elbow and will more than likely be questionable for the foreseeable future. Starter Kyle Wright gave up two hits in six scoreless innings of work. The other three pitchers used were great as well, allowing a combined one hit and zero runs in 3.0 innings. Atlanta has not named a starting pitcher yet, but there is a good chance it will be the RHP Charlie Morton (9-6, 4.34 ERA) who takes the mound Friday. If not Morton, the rookie Spencer Strider (11-5, 2.67 ERA) will take the mound.  

Philadelphia went scoreless in their first postseason loss of the season after losing 3-0 on the road in Game 2. The Phillies offense had just three hits throughout the game and went 0-3 with runners in scoring position. Coming into this game Philadelphia had scored 15 runs in their three postseason games, they just could not find a way to get their bats working against Wright. Starting pitcher Zack Wheeler was perfect through five innings but gave up all the Braves production in the sixth. The other two pitchers used gave up zero hits and zero runs in 2.0 innings of work. RHP Aaron Nola (11-13, 3.25 ERA) is expected to start Friday.  

I like the Phillies to take Game 3, as this will be the first playoff game played in Philadelphia in 11 years. Combine that with the home crowd, Nola taking the mound, and it is a recipe for success. Not to mention, Morton struggled in most of his starts against the Phillies this season, so Philadelphia’s offense should have a chance to shine in this matchup. Backing the Phillies ML here. 

Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Braves 4
Best Bet: Phillies ML

ATLANTA BRAVES vs. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING ODDS

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ATLANTA BRAVES vs. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Friday, October 14, 2022
• Matchup: NL East
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• Time-TV: 4:37 p.m. ET – FS1
• Expert Picks

ATLANTA BRAVES BETTING ANALYSIS

After winning Game 2, the Braves are 102-62 SU and 84-80 ATS this season. The Braves are 9-3 SU over their last 12 games and 5-5 SU in their last 10 road games. Atlanta went 2-2 SU in their most recent series played in Philadelphia. The total has gone over in five of their last 10 games. The total has also gone over in four of their last five games played against the Phillies.  

Atlanta’s offense is still trying to get their bats working this series as they are 9-for-63 (.143) at the plate through two games. Give credit to the Phillies bullpen, but this is a bit uncharacteristic for a team that had a batting average of .253 (9th), on base percentage of .317 (9th), slugging percentage of .443 (1st) and scored 789 runs (3rd) throughout the regular season. RF Ronald Acuna Jr. has been the most productive in the lineup, going 3-for-4 in Game 1, and 1-for-3 in Game 2. As mentioned before, keep an eye on Acuna Jr’s status the next couple of games because if he is out that is a huge loss for Atlanta’s offense.  

After giving up seven runs in Game 1, the Braves bullpen bounced back nicely in Game 2 with a shutout. Throughout the regular season they allowed opponents a batting average of .226 (4th), had a WHIP of 1.19 (7th), and team ERA of 3.46 (5th). While no starter has been announced for game-three, it is looking like right-handed pitcher Charlie Morton will take the mound. Morton went 9-6 SU with an ERA of 4.34 this season and gave up 149 hits, 83 earned runs, and struck out 205 batters in 172.0 innings. Morton struggled against the Phillies this season, allowing four runs or more in three of his five starts against Philadelphia. If Morton does not get the start, it will be Strider (11-5, 2.67 ERA) taking the mound.  

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING ANALYSIS

The Phillies are 90-76 SU and 84-82 ATS after losing Game 2. Philadelphia is 5-3 SU in their last eight games and 2-6 SU in their last eight games against the Braves. The total has gone over in six of their last 10 games played in October. Following this trend, the total has gone over in six of their last eight when playing an NL East opponent.  

Philadelphia’s offense put up a goose egg in Game 2 after scoring 15 runs through their first three postseason games. With just three hits on the day the Phillies did not even give themselves a chance to bring in runs. This was the opposite of their performance in the regular season when they had a batting average of .253 (8th), on base percentage of .317 (11th), slugging percentage of .422 (6th) and scored 747 runs (7th). OF/DH Bryce Harper went 1-4 at the plate on Wednesday but has been stellar this postseason, going 6-14 with one home run.  

Despite losing Game 2, the Phillies bullpen pitched very well. Other than giving up three runs in the sixth inning they were near perfect, allowing just four total hits on the day. Throughout the regular season they allowed opponents a batting average of .245 (16th), had a WHIP of 1.26 (14th), and team ERA of 3.97 (18th). Nola is expected to start Friday. Nola went 11-13 with an ERA of 3.25 this season and gave up 168 hits, 74 earned runs, and struck out 235 batters in 205.0 innings. In his one postseason start this season, Nola gave up four hits and zero runs in 6.2 innings of work against the Cardinals.  

KEY PLAYERS

• PHI: Bryce Harper - DH (Last Game: 1-4, 2B, K)
• PHI: J.T. Realmuto - C (Last Game: 1-4, K)
• ATL: Austin Riley - 3B (Last Game: 1-4, RBI)
• ATL: Ronald Acuna, Jr. - OF (Last Game: 1-3, R, K)

PROBABLE PITCHERS

• PHI: Aaron Nola - RHP (-)
• ATL: Charlie Morton or Spencer Strider - RHP (-)