Last Updated Oct 15, 2022, 1:57 PM

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game 4 Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Atlanta Braves travel to take on the Philadelphia Phillies Saturday for Game 4 of the NLDS. Phillies lead the series 2-1. First pitch is scheduled for 2:07 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and can be viewed on FS1.  

ATLANTA BRAVES vs. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING PREDICTION

Atlanta did not stand much of a chance in Game 3 after allowing the Phillies six runs in the bottom of the third inning. The Braves now must beat Philadelphia in back-to-back games in order to advance. The offense finished with six hits, one run, and went 1-9 with runners in scoring position (RISP). Their only run scored was due to an error so the production was not there for Atlanta in Game 3. Starting pitcher Spencer Strider got rocked, allowing five hits and three runs in just 2.1 innings. The other three pitchers used struggled as well, giving up a combined five hits and four runs in 5.2 innings. RHP Charlie Morton (9-6, 4.34 ERA) is scheduled to start Saturday.  

After Friday’s win, the Phillies are now just one game away from advancing to the National League Championship Series. Having not played at home since September 25th, the Phillies did not miss a beat, and looked great on both sides of the ball. The offense finished the day with eight hits, nine runs, and went 4-for-7 RISP. Starting pitcher Aaron Nola looked great, holding the Braves to five hits and one run in six innings of work. The other three pitchers used were near perfect, giving up a combined one hit and no runs in 3.0 innings. RHP Noah Syndergaard (10-10, 3.94 ERA) is expected to start Game 4.  

I think the Phillies are worth backing here in a closeout situation at home. Not to mention the offense has been on fire throughout the playoffs with 24 total runs scored. The Braves could very well win Game 4, but it’s tough to bet against the home team with all the momentum.

Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Braves 4
Best Bet: Phillies ML (+110)

ATLANTA BRAVES vs. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING ODDS

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ATLANTA BRAVES vs. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING RESOURCES

  • Date: Saturday, October 15, 2022
  • Matchup: NL East
  • Venue: Citizens Bank Park
  • Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
  • Time-TV: 2:07 p.m. ET – FS1
  • Expert Picks

ATLANTA BRAVES BETTING ANALYSIS

After losing on Friday, the Braves are 102-63 SU and 84-81 ATS. Atlanta is 9-5 SU in their last 14 games and 6-4 SU in their last 10 games against the Phillies. The total has split 5-5 in their last 10 games. The total has also gone over in four of their last five games played against Philadelphia.  

The Brave's offense has slowed down a bit in this series with just four runs scored over their last two games. Throughout the regular season Atlanta had a batting average of .253 (9th), on base percentage of .317 (9th), slugging percentage of .443 (1st) and scored 789 runs (3rd). C Travis d’Arnaud has been the most productive Brave throughout the playoffs, going 5-12 at the plate with one home run and four RBIs. RF Ronald Acuna Jr has also been solid, batting 5-11 at the plate through three games.  

Atlanta’s bullpen was great in Game 2, but have struggled in Games 1 and 3, allowing a combined 16 runs. Throughout the regular season the Braves held opponents to a batting average of .226 (4th), had a WHIP of 1.19 (7th), and team ERA of 3.46 (5th). Morton is scheduled to start Saturday. Morton went 9-6 SU with an ERA of 4.34 this season and gave up 149 hits, 83 earned runs, and struck out 205 batters in 172.0 innings of work. In his most recent outing against the Phillies on September 25th, Morton gave up six hits and six runs in 4.2 innings.  

(Getty)

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING ANALYSIS

The Phillies are now 91-76 SU and 85-82 ATS after winning Game 3. The Phillies are 7-3 SU over their last 10 games and 5-2 SU in their last seven games against a National League East opponent. The total has gone over in five of their last six games against the Braves. Following this trend, the total has gone over in seven of their last nine when playing when playing at home against Atlanta.  

Philadelphia’s offense has been cooking thus far in the playoffs with 24 total runs scored, including a nine-run day in Game 3. Throughout the regular season the Phillies had a batting average of .253 (8th), on base percentage of .317 (11th), slugging percentage of .422 (6th) and scored 747 runs (7th). DH/OF Bryce Harper has been very efficient this postseason, batting 8-for-16 (.500) at the plate with two home runs and four RBIs.  

The Phillies bullpen took care of business in Game 3, holding the Braves to just one run scored. Throughout the regular season they held opponents to a batting average of .245 (16th), had a WHIP of 1.26 (14th), and team ERA of 3.97 (18th). Syndergaard is expected to take the mound Saturday. Syndergaard went 10-10 SU this season with an ERA of 3.94 and gave up 138 hits, 59 earned runs, and struck out 95 batters in 134.2 innings of work. In his most recent outing against the Nationals on October 1st, Syndergaard went 5.2 innings and gave up two hits and zero runs.  

KEY PLAYERS

  • PHI: Bryce Harper - DH (Last Game: 2-4, 2B, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, K)
  • PHI: J.T. Realmuto - C (Last Game: 1-4, 2 R, K)
  • ATL: Austin Riley - 3B (Last Game: 0-4, K)
  • ATL: Ronald Acuna, Jr. - OF (Last Game: 1-4, K)

PROBABLE PITCHERS

  • PHI: Noah Syndergaard - RHP (-)
  • ATL: Charlie Morton - RHP (-)
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