Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Game 5 Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees meet Tuesday for Game 5 of the ALDS. First pitch is scheduled for 4:07 PM ET at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York and can be viewed on TBS. 

(*UPDATE) This game originally expected to be played Monday night, but was postponed due to inclement weather.

Updated on 05/07/2024

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CLEVELAND GUARDIANS vs. NEW YORK YANKEES BETTING PREDICTION

Cleveland failed to close out the series in Game 4 and will now head to New York for a deciding Game 5 on Tuesday. The Guardians did not play bad by any means in Game 4, but the lack of offensive production was the difference maker in this one. The Guardians offense finished with six hits, one home run, and went 1-for-5 (.200 with runners in scoring position (RISP). This is quite the difference from their 15-hit performance in Game 3. Starting pitcher Cal Quantrill gave up four hits and three runs in 5.0 innings. The other three pitchers used held the Yankees to a combined two hits and one run in 4.0 innings of work. RHP Aaron Civale (5-6, 4.92 ERA) is scheduled to start Game 5, although RHP Shane Bieber could potentially be an option. 

The Yankees live to play another game after defeating the Guardians 4-2 in Game 4 on Sunday night. The offense was not crazy productive, finishing with six hits, four runs, and going 1-for-4 (.250) with RISP. The difference maker in this one for the Yankees was a two-run shot from CF Harrison Bader in the top of the second. Starting pitcher Gerrit Cole had a great outing for New York, holding the Guardians to six hits and two runs in 7 innings of work. The other two pitchers used were perfect, not allowing a single hit or run in 2 innings. LHP Nestor Cortes Jr. (12-4, 2.44 ERA) is expected to start Game 5, replacing previously announced RHP Jameson Taillon.

I think the Guardians missed their opportunity to close out this series. I do not see Cleveland heading back to the Bronx and winning a deciding Game 5 in front of that crowd. Also, I expect the Yankees offense to do some damage against Civale, and think we may see the Yankees highest scoring game of this postseason. Back the Yankees ML.

Score Prediction: Yankees 5, Guardians 3
Best Bet: Yankees ML (-158)

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS vs. NEW YORK YANKEES BETTING ODDS

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CLEVELAND GUARDIANS vs. NEW YORK YANKEES BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Tuesday, October 18, 2022
• Matchup: AL Central vs. AL East
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Location: New York, New York
• Time-TV: 4:07 p.m. ET – TBS
• Expert Picks

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS BETTING ANALYSIS

Cleveland will enter this matchup 96-72 SU and 89-79 ATS. Cleveland is 6-2 SU in their last eight games and 7-1 SU in their last eight games on the road. The total has gone over in seven of their last 11 games. Going against this trend, the total has gone under in eight of their last 12 when playing an opponent from the AL East division.  

The Guardians offense struggled Sunday night with just two runs scored. They have not been a high scoring team throughout this playoff with 16 runs scored in six games. They rely on their bullpen which is a tough to do in a five-game series against one of the highest scoring teams in the league. 3B Jose Ramirez has been the most productive Guardian this postseason, batting 9-for-27 (.333) at the plate with one home run and two RBIs. RF Oscar Gonzalez has come up big as well, going 7-for-27 (.259) at the plate with one home run, four RBIs, and three game-winning hits.  

Cleveland’s bullpen has been outstanding this postseason, but the lack of production made it tough to win in Games 1 and 4 of this series. Civale is expected to start Game 5. Civale went 5-6 SU this season with an ERA of 4.92 and gave up 93 hits, 53 earned runs, and struck out 98.0 batters in 97.0 innings of work. Civale has yet to pitch in the postseason and in his two outings against the Yankees this season gave up a combined 12 hits, 10 earned runs, and struck out nine batters in 9 innings.  Bieber pushed to be included in Game 5 if it were played Monday, so he could also be an option to see time.

NEW YORK YANKEES BETTING ANALYSIS

After taking Game 4, the Yankees are 101-65 SU and 74-92 ATS. New York is 2-4 SU in their last six games and 13-6 SU in their last 19 games against the Guardians. The total has gone over in seven of their last 10 games when playing an opponent from the AL Central division. Going against this trend, the total has gone under in three of four games in this series.  

New York’s offense still does not look like they did in the regular season but did just enough in game-four to secure a victory. The long ball was the difference maker Sunday, and could be on Tuesday as well, if the bullpen can keep Cleveland’s bats at bay. 1B Anthony Rizzo has been hitting the ball well this series, batting 4-for-14 (.286) at the plate with one home run and three RBIs. CF Aaron Judge is still struggling but has managed hits in back-to-back games now.  

The Yankees bullpen came up huge in Game 4, holding the Guardians to just six hits and two runs. Cortes Jr. was 12-4 with a 2.44 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 163 K across 158 1/3 IP in 28 starts during the regular season. He replaces Taillon, who was previously announced as the starter. Taillon saw action in Game 2 of this series and gave up three hits and two runs in the ninth inning. He'll likely be available out of the bullpen again.

KEY PLAYERS

• CLE: Jose Ramirez - 3B (Last Game: 1-4, RBI, 2 K)
• CLE: Amed Rosario - SS (Last Game: 1-4, 3 K)
• NYY: Aaron Judge - CF (Last Game: 1-4, R, K)
• NYY: Giancarlo Stanton - DH (Last Game: 0-3, SF, RBI, 2 K)

PROBABLE PITCHERS

• CLE: Aaron Civale - RHP (-)
• NYY: Nestor Cortes Jr. - LHP (0-0, 5.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.80 WHIP - postseason)