San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game 3 Picks, Predictions, Odds

The San Diego Padres will travel to take on the Philadelphia Phillies Game 3 of the NLCS on Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:37 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and can be viewed on FS1.  

Updated on 04/26/2024

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SAN DIEGO PADRES vs. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING PREDICTION

San Diego managed to win a crucial Game 2 on Wednesday as it did not want to head to Philadelphia down 0-2. After a scoreless Game 1, the Padres offense came to work and finished the day with 13 hits, three home runs, eight total runs, and went 3-for-9 (.333) with runners in scoring position (RISP). CF Trent Grisham was the only Padre in the starting lineup to finish the game without a hit. Starting pitcher Blake Snell gave up five hits and four runs in 5 innings of work. The other three pitchers allowed a combined three hits and one run in 4 innings. RHP Joe Musgrove (10-7, 2.93 ERA) is scheduled to start Game 3.  

Entering Game 2, the Phillies were 27-2 in their postseason history when leading by four or more runs. They had a four-run lead in the second inning of this matchup, but history did not repeat itself. The offense had a fairly productive day with eight hits, one home run, five total runs, and went 3-for-11 (.273) RISP. Starting pitcher Aaron Nola had his worst outing of the postseason, allowing seven hits and six runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. The other five pitchers used gave up a combined six hits and two runs in 3 1/3 innings. LHP Ranger Suarez (10-7, 3.65 ERA) is expected to take the mound Friday.  

Philadelphia will have an advantage being at home, as Citizens Bank Park should be loud and ready to make a difference. However, the Padres will have the advantage with Musgrove taking the mound. As much as I want to back the Phillies at home, San Diego’s bullpen has yet to show weakness in the postseason and the offense should find enough success against Suarez. Back the Padres money-line here in Game 3.  

Score Prediction: Padres 5, Phillies 3
Best Bet: Padres ML (-110)

SAN DIEGO PADRES vs. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING ODDS

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SAN DIEGO PADRES vs. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Friday, October 20, 2022
• Matchup: NL West vs. NL East
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• Time-TV: 7:37 p.m. ET – FS1
• Expert Picks

SAN DIEGO PADRES BETTING ANALYSIS

The Padres enter this matchup with postseason records of 6-3 SU and 6-3 ATS. The total has gone over in nine of their last 12 games. Going against this trend, the total has gone under in 12 of their last 17 games against the Phillies. San Diego is 4-1 SU in its past five games and 1-2 SU in its three games played in Philadelphia during the regular season.  

San Diego’s offense had a huge Game-2 after going scoreless in Game 1. Give credit to Zack Wheeler, because he made this offense look like a high school team when this has actually been a very good offense throughout the postseason. As a team, the Padres have a postseason batting average of .233, on-base percentage of .304, slugging percentage of .387, and have scored 39 runs. Manny Machado had another efficient game Wednesday, batting 3-5 with one home run and one RBI. If Juan Soto can find a way to get his bat working, watch out for the Padres.  

The Padres bullpen has been pitching lights out this postseason. If they can manage to get past the seventh inning with a lead it is basically game over with the way Robert Suarez and Josh Hader have been closing out games. San Diego will be in good hands Friday with Musgrove making the start. Musgrove has pitched in two games this postseason, the first outing he allowed one hit and zero runs to the Mets and in his most recent outing against the Dodgers he allowed six hits and two runs in 6 innings of work.  

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING ANALYSIS

Philadelphia is 6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS in these playoffs. The Phillies are now 4-2 SU in their past six games against the Padres and 2-1 SU in their three games played at home against the Padres this season. The total has gone over in eight of their last nine games when playing an opponent from the NL West Division. Following this trend, the total has gone over in six of their last 10 games.  

The Phillies offense is not to blame for Game 2 with five runs scored on the day. That makes it the fifth time in their eight postseason games scoring five runs or more. As a team Philadelphia has a postseason batting average of .220, on-base percentage of .289, slugging percentage of .386, and have scored 39 runs. Bryce Harper had another productive game Wednesday, going 2-for-4 at the plate, and he has been a monster in these playoffs. If he has a down game at any point the Phillies may find themselves in a bit of trouble.  

Philadelphia’s bullpen struggled for the first time this postseason in Game 2. They had a two-run lead headed into the fifth inning but gave up five runs and the rest is history. Suarez will look to turn things around at home on Friday night. Suarez has started in just one game this postseason and gave up three hits and one run in 3 1/3 innings against the Braves on October 11th. He cannot let the Padres offense get going early as keeping the crowd in this one is key for the Phillies.  

KEY PLAYERS

• SND: Manny Machado - 3B (Game 2 - 3-for-5, 2B, HR, RBI, R, 2 K)
• SND: Juan Soto - OF (Game 2 - 1-for-5, 2B, RBI, R, K)
• PHI: Bryce Harper - DH/OF (Game 2 - 2-for-4, 2B, R)
• PHI: Rhys Hoskins - OF (Game 2 - 1-4, HR, RBI, R, K)

PROBABLE PITCHERS

• SND: Joe Musgrove - RHP (1-0, 1.38 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 13 K, 13 IP in 2 Postseason starts)
• PHI: Ranger Suarez - RHP (0-0, 2.70 ERA, 2.40 WHIP, 5 K, 3 1/3 IP in 1 Postseason start)