San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game 4 Picks, Predictions, Odds

The San Diego Padres and the Philadelphia Phillies meet for Game 4 of the NLCS on Saturday night. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and can be viewed on FOX.  

Updated on 04/25/2024

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SAN DIEGO PADRES vs. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING PREDICTION

The Padres dropped Game 3 on Friday night and will have to win one of the next two games if they want to take this series back to San Diego. Assuming Zack Wheeler will start Game 5, San Diego better take care of business Saturday night. The offense finished Game 3 with seven hits, two runs, and went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position (RISP). It felt like a few times during the game that a run was getting ready to start for the Padres, but it never happened. Starting pitcher Joe Musgrove gave up eight hits and four runs in 5 2/3 innings. The other two pitchers used gave up a combined one hit and no runs in 2 1/3 innings of work. RHP Mike Clevinger (Postseason: 0-1, 13.50 ERA) will start Game 4.  

Philadelphia is now in command of this series after a 4-2 win Friday night. The next two games are huge for the Phillies, as I don’t think they want to bring this series back to Petco Park. The offense finished Game 3 with nine hits, one home run, four total runs, and went 2-for-7 with RISP. Kyle Schwarber got the party started with a lead-off home run in the top of the first and small ball took care of the rest throughout the game. Starting pitcher Ranger Suarez gave up two hits and two runs in 5 innings. The other three pitchers used gave up a combined five hits and zero runs in 3 innings. LHP Bailey Falter (8-5, 4.36 ERA) is scheduled to start Saturday.  

Game 4 should be an interesting matchup with Clevinger and Falter taking the mound. I expect both pitchers to go 3-4 innings and for both bullpens to be put to work. It’s tough to bet against the Phillies at home but I like the Padres here as they have the deeper bullpen which will be the difference maker in this one. I also think it’s worth playing the over as we should see runs early on in this matchup. 

Score Prediction: Padres 6, Phillies 4
Best Bet: Padres ML (-104)
Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-105)

SAN DIEGO PADRES vs. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING ODDS

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SAN DIEGO PADRES vs. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Saturday, October 21, 2022
• Matchup: NL West vs. NL East
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• Time-TV: 7:45 p.m. ET – FOX
• Expert Picks

SAN DIEGO PADRES BETTING ANALYSIS

The Padres are 6-4 SU and 6-4 ATS this postseason. The total has gone over in nine of San Diego’s last 13 games. Going against this trend, the total has gone under in eight of its last nine when playing on the road against Philadelphia. San Diego is 2-5 in its past seven games against the Phillies and 5-3 in its past eight games against an NL East opponent.  

San Diego’s offense was not great in Game 3, but its had its fair share of chances to make something happen. It was close a couple of times, but give credit to the Phillies defense, who were out there making plays. It doesn’t help that Juan Soto and Manny Machado were a combined 1-for-7 at the plate. This postseason the Padres have a batting average of .230, on-base percentage of .296, slugging percentage of .367 and have scored 41 runs.  

Musgrove struggled a bit in his Game 3 start, but did give the Padres a chance. The bullpen will be called upon heavily in Game 4, as I wouldn't expect Clevinger to go more than 4 innings. Clevinger was terrible in his postseason outing against the Dodgers on October 11th, allowing six hits and five runs in 2 2/3 innings of work. However, once Clevinger is pulled the Padres have depth in their bullpen which should be the key to this matchup.  

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING ANALYSIS

The Phillies are 7-2 SU and 7-2 ATS in these playoffs. The total has gone over in five of Philadelphia’s last six games. Going against this trend, the total has gone under in seven of their last nine games when playing at home against the Padres. The Phillies are 7-3 in their past 10 games and 2-4 in their past six games when playing an opponent from the NL West Division.  

Philadelphia’s offense got the job in Game 3, but like the Padres, they also missed out on opportunities with runners in scoring position. Bryson Stott came up huge, going 2-for-3 at the plate with two doubles. Jean Segura also played a key role in Game 3 with a single that brought in two runs in the bottom of the fourth. It has to be a good feeling to get a win when Harper was 1-for-4 at the plate. Throughout the postseason the Phillies have a batting average of .229, on-base percentage of .294, slugging percentage of .401 and have scored 43 runs.  

Suarez had a solid outing for the Phillies in Game 3 and had potential for a longer outing as he was pulled at 68 pitches. The other members of the bullpen found themselves in a couple of sticky situations but managed to pitch out of them. Falter will make his postseason start of his career on Saturday. I would imagine the Phillies are looking to get 3-4 innings from him but even that may be a stretch.  

KEY PLAYERS

• SND: Manny Machado - 3B (Game 3 - 0-for-4, K)
• SND: Juan Soto - OF (Game 3 - 1-for-3, R, K)
• PHI: Bryce Harper - DH/OF (Game 3 - 1-for-4, 2B, R)
• PHI: Kyle Schwarber - OF (Game 3 - 2-for-4, solo HR, RBI, R, K)

PROBABLE PITCHERS

• SND: Mike Clevinger - RHP (0-1, 13.50 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 3 K, 2 2/3 IP in 1 Postseason start)
• PHI: Bailey Falter - LHP (First-career Postseason appearance)