Last Updated Mar 26, 2023, 8:00 PM
MLB Season Win Totals Betting Trends & Action Report
US Sports Betting Industry Expert
MLB season win totals might not yet be on your radar, with March Madness dominating the sports betting landscape. But the Boys of Summer start up just before the Final Four, with a full slate of games on March 30.
So some bettors are already diving into 2023 Major League Baseball win totals. And to no one's surprise, the Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees are among those projected to nab the most wins.
Circa Sports director of risk Chris Bennett provides early insights on MLB win totals betting odds, trends and action.
MLB Win Total Odds
Making The Numbers
Circa Sports first posted MLB win totals on Feb. 22, with the Dodgers leading the field at 96 wins. Right behind Dodger Blue were the defending World Series champion Astros and the perennially popular Yankees, both at 95 wins.
Bennett explained how he arrived at those numbers and the win totals for the remaining 27 MLB squads. And it's not as complicated as you might think.
"My process for making MLB regular-season wins numbers is very unsophisticated. I look at the how the teams did last year, and I comb through the rosters on FanGraphs," Bennett said. "I just come up with a number in my head that feels right, given my perception of the team. I’ve done this for many years, so the numbers are usually not terrible."
Then Bennett has to make sure the math adds up to the total possible number of wins across all of MLB, and a final refining based on other expert insights/existing betting markets.
"I tweak the numbers so that all the teams’ wins add up to 2,430," he said. "The thing that really refines the process is regressing those numbers to the projections – FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Clay Davenport – and whatever existing market is already out there. I would be foolish to not factor those things in."
Modest Action, Minor Moves
The Dodgers, Astros and Yankees have all seen minor moves off their opening numbers at Circa. Los Angeles and Houston are now tied atop the MLB season win totals odds board at 95.5, with Los Angeles dipping a half-game and Houston rising a half-game.
New York is down a half-game, as well, at 94.5.
"We haven’t seen a ton of action on the Astros and Dodgers," Bennett said. "What’s interesting is that there are several teams very close to each other at the top. The Astros, Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, Mets, Padres and Blue Jays are very close for highest season wins number."
Atlanta opened at 94.5 and is up to 95. The Mets also opened at 94.5 and remain there as of March 6. San Diego is down a tick from 93 to 92.5, and Toronto is already up a full game, moving from 92 to 93.
Ticket Takers and Money Makers
Just shy of two weeks since MLB win totals betting hit the odds board, Bennett noted that the Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies are seeing Over money. The Pirates opened at a meager 65 wins, tied with the Colorado Rockies for the third-lowest total, ahead of only the Oakland A's (58) and Washington Nationals (59).
Pittsburgh has since been bet up to 68 wins at Circa.
"It’s interesting that the Pirates are getting some support, given how bad they’ve been and not making any big acquisitions in the offseason," Bennett said.
The Pirates are coming off a dismal 62-100 campaign, tied with NL Central rival Cincinnati for the third-worst record in baseball. Only the Nationals (55-107) and Athletics (60-102) had worse marks.
Philadelphia went 87-75 last season to earn a Wild Card bid, then made a run all the way to the World Series, where it lost to Houston in six games. Coincidentally, Bennett opened the Phillies' 2023 win total at 87, and Philly has since stretched out to 89.
On the Under front, the Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers are drawing dollars. Texas dipped from 81 to 79.5, while Detroit fell from 71.5 to 69.5.
Bennett noted that overall, MLB season win totals tend to be a lightly bet market.
"The thing I tell people about season wins is that they don’t get as much betting interest as you might assume. People don’t want to tie up their money for six months at -110," he said. "We should see some decent action close to the start of the season, though."