Mavericks vs Celtics Game 5 Picks, Odds | NBA Finals Prediction

The 2024 NBA Finals continue, and could possibly conclude on Monday night, with Game 5 of Mavericks vs. Celtics set to tip off at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

The Celtics are 6.5-point favorites on the spread in Monday's contest, while the total is set at over/under 209.5 total points at DraftKings.

Here's everything you need to know about Game 5 of the NBA Finals between Dallas and Boston -- the latest betting odds, as well as our expert picks and prediction for Monday, June 17.

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NBA Finals Game 5 Odds

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NBA Finals Game 5 Prediction & Picks

When a team lives-and-dies by the 3-ball the way the Celtics do, sometimes it’s going to be ugly, and Game 4 between these teams was an incredibly ugly outing for Boston.

The Celtics jacked up 41 3-point attempts in the latest matchup between these teams, and they scored only 84 points on 36% from the field and 34% from long range en route to a 38-point road loss (122-84). However, the dip in shooting variance wasn’t the issue for Boston in Game 4. The Celtics never truly stood a chance in a game in which Dallas shot 51% from the floor and hit 41% of their 37 attempts from 3-point land.

Some of the Mavs’ success in Game 4 can be attributed to an imbalance in motivation due to Boston previously owning a 3-0 lead in the series. However, I see it as more of a “fluke” occurrence, as Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving shot a combined 1-for-14 (7.1%) from 3-point territory in the most recent meeting between these teams, while the rest of the Mavs’ supporting cast caught fire in a completely unsustainable way, shooting an amazing 14-of-23 (61%) from long range in the blowout win.

Any way you slice it, Game 4 of this series appears to be a total outlier. Neither team scored more than 107 points in the first three games, as the first three matchups of this series all stayed well under the total at a combined average of 201.3 points per game, with Game 3 serving as the highest-scoring of the bunch at a final point total of 205 (106-99).

With that in mind, however, the final point total of Game 4 did, in fact, top the previous high-number, as the Mavericks beat Boston by a score of 122-84 on Friday night. Yet, it still equated to a rather low final tally of 206 total points and a fourth straight under result (U 211.5) for the series.

Boston’s offensive struggles in Game 4 shouldn’t have come as a total surprise. The Celtics led the NBA in offensive rating by a comfortable margin during the regular season (123.2), and they’ve continued to do so throughout the playoffs at a league-best offensive rating of 119.3 since the start of the postseason. However, the Celtics offense simply hasn’t had its best stuff over the course of this series, averaging only 100.5 points per game on a 109.6 offensive rating in the NBA Finals.

In this series, though, Boston’s secret sauce has been its dominance on defense. The Celtics managed to win the first three games of the Finals by holding Dallas to less than 100 points on a sub-110 offensive rating in all three contests, which allowed them to secure a comfortable series advantage, despite averaging only 106 points per game on a relatively mediocre offensive rating of 116 in their three wins. So, moving forward, I expect to see Boston get back to basics defensively.

We didn’t see a giant uptick in pace of play in Game 4, or anything like that. The most recent meeting between these teams clocked-in at a pace of 92.6, which is pretty similar to the pace of the first three matchups of this series; as Game 1 came in at a pace of 91.2, Game 2 at 92.7, and then Game 3 at 90.3.

The oddsmakers are clearly aware of the under-trend in this series, as we’ve seen the total steadily fall from an over-under of 216 in Game 1 all the way down to 209.5 entering Game 5. However, there must still be an abundance of ‘over’ bettors out there somewhere, because they aren’t trying too hard to scare people away from the under. With an average of 202.5 total points per game through the first four games, and a range of 196 to 206 in those four contests, I still believe this number is too high. Look for a fifth straight under in Game 5.

Pick: Under 209.5 (-110)

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NBA Finals Game 5 Time & TV Channel

Date: Monday, June 17
Matchup: Southwest vs. Atlantic
Venue: TD Garden
Location: Boston, MA
Time-TV: ABC, 8:30 p.m. ET

Mavericks vs Celtics Betting Stats

1) Boston Celtics
(1st Place, Atlantic)

  • Odds to Win Series: -3500
  • SU: 64-18
  • ATS: 43-38-1
  • O/U: 37-44-1
  • PPG: 120.6
  • OPPG: 109.2

Click here for the latest betting trends and market movements for the NBA Finals from VegasInsider Senior Reporter Patrick Everson!

5) Dallas Mavericks
(1st Place, Southwest)

  • Odds to Win Series: +1400
  • SU: 50-32
  • ATS: 48-34
  • O/U: 36-45-1
  • PPG: 117.9
  • OPPG: 115.6

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