NBA Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Sunday, April 14

The Lakers can't move ahead of the #8 position in the Western Conference standings which they currently hold but they are at risk to fall to the #9 or #10 positions with a loss, which would make for a significant uphill hurdle to start the play-in tournament with the Kings and Warriors looking to jump past Los Angeles, with both of those teams holding very favorable matchups Sunday playing as significant favorites.

On the surface New Orleans has an incentive to hold the #6 position, but the Pelicans can't catch Dallas for the #5 spot as they will lose a potential tiebreaker with the Mavericks. A loss could send New Orleans into the play-in field but the Pelicans have the tiebreaker over current #7 Phoenix who has a difficult game with Minnesota Sunday.

If Phoenix wins in a toss-up game Sunday and New Orleans loses, being the #7 team in the play-in tournament isn't a terrible spot to be, knowing the #6 seed is most likely to line up with the defending champion Nuggets in the first round. New Orleans has won four in a row ahead of this finale, but all four games were on a taxing road trip, and this could be a flat spot on the schedule back at home for a Pelicans team that has lost its last four home games and is only three games above .500 in New Orleans.

The Lakers have won two of three in this series for the season and Los Angeles is 6-1 S/U in the past seven road games. New Orleans is still adjusting to playing without Brandon Ingram and the strong defensive profile for the Pelicans this season has slipped into a more average efficiency range in the past 10 games with the Lakers grading as the stronger offense and defense in the late season run.

Los Angeles has featured an up-and-down season but has its stars in line to play for this game and a playoff run and Los Angeles has been one of the best shooting and offensive efficiency teams in the NBA when at full strength.

The Lakers have 16 wins against top 10 teams this season compared to only 14 for New Orleans with the profile for the Lakers coming through the #6 ranked toughest schedule in the NBA.

Yeah, this game has some meaning for the Kings. But they still are locked into the play-in round and have not been playing well losing five of their past six games, including the last three.

So I don't believe the Kings should be this high of a favorite.

The Trail Blazers are 2-4 in their last six games. More important, Portland is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games.

Sacramento is 4-8 ATS as double-digit favorites this season. This is by far the most points they have laid this season.

But because the Kings can gain the No. 8 seed in the West by beating the Trail Blazers and having the Lakers lose to the Pelicans, the oddsmaker has set an inflated number and the marketplace has pushed it up even higher at some books.

Both this game and the Lakers-Pelicans matchup have the same starting time. So the Kings might be distracted trying to find out how the Lakers-Pelicans game is going especially if they have a big lead. That's not ideal for such a heavy favorite.

The backdoor should fly open, too, for the Trail Blazers if the Kings begin to rest their key players if building a big lead.