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Dinero Tracker – Feb. 2

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
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Last night's ATS Records
NBA: 2-3 | NCAA BB: 22-9

Thursday's results featured a painful NBA loss on a buzzer-beater, a devastating non-cover on my college hoops, a 3-0 mark on WCC plays and a 5-1 night in the Big Sky. I went just 2-3 on college in-game parlays, nailing Hofstra/UNCW and Montana/Northern Colorado to aid a huge day (+1193) in college hoops. The NBA guarantee came in for a fourth straight day, making it 15-for-21 (71.4%) since Jan. 11, but the rest of my night in the pros was filled with carnage. Here are some of the highlights (and lowlights):

FRIDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: Nets/Lakers OVER 217
D'Angelo Russell shot just 8-for-24 at Staples Center way back on Nov. 3, which contributed to a 124-112 loss. Despite his awful shooting and Lonzo Ball shooting just 3-for-15, there were 57 or more points scored in all four quarters. Brook Lopez hasn't done much of late, getting benched in a contract year, but I think we'll see him have success here. Even with Ball sidelined for the past eight games, the Lakers have surpassed the century mark in their last five. They've given up an average of nearly 118 on the first three legs of their five-game road trip. Brooklyn will have Caris LaVert back and just saw Russell contribute 22 points on 8-for-15 shooting in his most impressive performance since returning to action to help the Nets stun the 76ers. Expect this to be a high-scoring affair and ride the over.

THURSDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: Georgia State -6
Arkansas State won its second Sun Belt road game in a week's span in a shootout over Appalachian State on Saturday, but hasn't defeated D-I opponents in consecutive games all season. The Red Wolves have dropped three straight at home and face a Panthers squad they covered against in Atlanta on Jan. 6, falling only 79-75. This should ensure that the Panthers, winners of seven straight, take this opening leg of a two-game road trip in Arkansas seriously. Ron Hunter's squad has gone 4-1 ATS and has surrendered fewer than 70 points in six of eight. D'Marcus Simonds should have another big night after scoring 33 points and grabbing nine boards in the first meeting. Lay the points on the road and back Georgia State.



Result: Chicken dinner on the first freebie! This makes me want to not give you people anything for free, but since you're reading, I guess I can live with it. The Red Wolves hung around for quite a bit and actually led with under 11 minutes left, but a 13-2 run helped the Panthers take control and Arkansas State ran out of bullets, shooting 36 percent in a 77-66 loss. GSU shot 56 percent, led by Simonds' 15 points.

THURSDAY'S LOCK

The pick: Rockets ML -115
With Chris Paul in and James Harden coming off the first 60-point triple-double in NBA history, look for the Rockets to continue a run that has seen them win eight of 10, tied with OKC for the NBA's best record over that span. The Spurs are still without Kawhi Leonard and will get the Rockets' best punch since this is Paul's first trip into San Antonio with his new group. Ride Houston on the money line, guaranteed.

Result: The Spurs threatened to make a push and were rebounding so nicely that Pop was actually positive and reassuring in a fourth-quarter huddle, but James Harden put the game away and Houston coasted 102-91.

LOCK THAT DIDN'T CLICK

The pick: UC-Davis -8
Reggie Theus' Matadors squad dominated Cal Poly in in their last home game, but runs into a UC Davis squad that they just lost to, which means you'll see the Aggies well prepared to roll in this Big West road game. UC-D has dropped consecutive road games to spoil its once-perfect road mark but should respond well as it attempts to sweep Northridge and Long Beach this week. Expect a double-digit win behind Chima Moneke and ride UC Davis -8 as Thursday's guaranteed college hoops winner.

Result: This was painful. The Aggies played poorly at Northridge, allowing Reggie Theus' team to hang around the entire night. Despite a lethargic effort, UC-Davis executed well enough down the stretch to lead by 9 after a free-throw following an unnecesary Reggie Theus, Jr. foul put us in a position to cover. Those dreams were agonizingly dashed when Theus, Jr. waltzed into the paint with three seconds left and got a runner to drop, snatching the cover for his pop and Matadors backers. UC-Davis won 63-56, coming up just shy of coming through for my college hoops lock. And to think, I really liked Hang Time.

TOTAL RECALL

The pick: Wisconsin/Northwestern UNDER 127.5
A lack of dynamic offense has been a detriment to both teams this season, which makes it hard to project the winner since the Badgers are no longer a sure bet in Madison. Northwestern looks like it is headed to the NIT, but both teams are still playing hard and we'll defend for their coaches. Ride the under.

Result: Games are never ugly when you anticipate just how hard to watch they may be and capitalize. The Wildcats' scared me off backing them in Madison like I wanted to due to their shaky execution on offense, so I missed out on an in-game parlay but nonetheless enjoyed their 60-52 victory with the under coasting.

CARDIAC ATTACK

The pick: Oklahoma City PK'em/OVER 217.5
The Thunder will play in Denver for the second time this season after having a five-game winning streak in the Mile-High city snapped in a 102-94 loss on Nov. 9. They beat the Nuggets in Oklahoma City on Dec. 18 by a single point as Westbrook scored 38 points to help overcome Paul George and Carmelo Anthony contributed only 12. Look for a more complete effort in the fact that neither Nikola Jokic nor Gary Harris is playing with a healthy set of ankles to make the difference. Ride Oklahoma City on the money line to avoid laying the bucket on the road and back the over for the in-game parlay.

Result: Denver shot the lights out for most of the night and were up by double-digits for most of the night, so I can't call what went down a bad beat, but after Paul George looked like he'd force OT with a heroic 3-pointer to tie the game at 124, the Nuggets pulled it out despite just 1.4 seconds left. Adding insult to injury, it came on a Harris' buzzer-beater off an inbounds pass from Jokic. That wasn't a five-second call? Did he really get that off in time? Yuck. Congrats, Nuggets. At least the over hit.

SWING AND A MISS

The pick: Wright State -8.5
The Vikings run dreadful offensive sets and run up against the only team that has managed to separate themselves as the new top dog in the Horizon League now that Valpo has moved on to the Missouri Valley. Look for Raiders to shoot in from Dayton and roll by double-digits here. Back Wright State and lay the points.

Result: Cleveland State pulled off the outright upset 77-74, cashing +375 on the money line at Westgate. The Vikings tied a single-game program record with 14 3-pointers made to hand Wright State just its second loss in 11 league games. The Raiders used a 25-6 run and actually led 66-62 with under six minutes left but ran out of gas after digging themselves an initial hole. Props to Dennis Felton and CSU.

PROOF OF CLAIRVOYANCE

The pick: San Diego +19.5
The Toreros should be able to hang around with the Zags long enough to avoid being blown out. If they move the ball well and hang around, USD should hit enough 3-pointers to stick close enough to Gonzaga that it should at least notch a backdoor cover. Ride San Diego plus the points.

Result: Lamont Smith has done a superb job with the Toreros and actually had his team within a bucket of the Zags twice in the final five minutes. Despite an off night from leading scorer Isaiah Pineiro and a 24-7 disadvantage in second-chance points, San Diego hit nine 3-pointers and never trailed by more than 12.


Follow Tony Mejia on Twitter at @TonyMejiaNBA

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