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Inside the Paint – Tuesday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
8 minute read
ATS Rankings | Totals Report | Injuries

Super Bowl Sunday was all about the underdogs as the Philadelphia Eagles captured the title and that momentum has carried over to the hardwood.

The NBA saw the ‘dogs go 4-2 against the spread on Sunday even though they only managed to post a 2-4 straight up record. The favorites did manage to strike back on Monday with a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS record, plus we saw the ‘over’ go 4-3 after a 5-1 ‘under’ mark the day before.

We’ve got eight games on tap for Tuesday and below is my quick handicap.

Game of the Night – Oklahoma City at Golden State (TNT, 10:35 p.m. ET)

The marquee matchup on Tuesday takes place from Oracle Arena as Golden State (41-12 SU, 23-29-1 ATS) and Oklahoma City (30-24 SU, 21-32-1 ATS) square off. The Warriors opened as 10-point home favorites while the total is listed at 230.

Based on current form and tendencies that we’ve seen this season, the right side looks to be laying the points but the defending champs haven’t been a solid investment at home.

Oklahoma City enters this game with a four-game losing streak, which includes a 108-104 loss to the L.A. Lakers on Sunday as a 9 ½-point home favorite. The losses to teams below .500 (14-10) have piled up this season and continue to make Oklahoma City a tough team to figure out. Prior to the skid, the Thunder had won eight straight and they even helped bettors with a 6-2 ATS mark during that run.

Snapping the streak on Tuesday won’t be easy at Golden State, who enters this game off a 115-108 setback at Denver on Saturday as a 5 ½-point favorite. The Warriors went 1-2 on their recent three-game road trip and that included an embarrassing loss at Utah, 129-109.

Golden State head coach Steve Kerrr tried to summarize his team’s recent play. “"It's painful obviously that our guys are mentally fried right now," Kerr said.  "So it's a good job to just get a win. Our guys are tired mentally, emotionally. So we just got to fight through, get to the break and rejuvenate."

Kerr and his squad should have confidence tonight since the Warriors have gone 11-0 off a loss this season and the team is 6-0 when facing a team for the first time after losing the previous meeting.

For our purposes, the Warriors have gone 6-5 ATS in the 11 wins and that might not bode much confidence. However, the ‘over’ could be a solid look tonight. The high side has gone 8-3 in Golden State’s games off a loss and those results are clearly attributed to the Warriors offense, which is averaging 126 points per game.

Outside of the Rockets and Spurs, teams in the Western Conference have struggled on the road and that includes Oklahoma City (11-15 SU, 10-16 ATS). In 15 road games versus teams from the West, OKC has gone 4-11 SU and 3-12 ATS.

Since Kevin Durant left Oklahoma City for Golden State, the Warriors have gone 3-1 both SU and ATS in the four meetings but the Thunder won the lone encounter this season – a 108-91 victory on Nov. 22 as a 5 ½-point home underdog. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1.

This will be the largest amount of points that Oklahoma City has received this season. Golden State has gone 19-5 SU and 10-13-1 ATS this season as a double-digit favorite.

Good Luck!

I learned my lesson taking Cleveland on Saturday as a four-point home underdog to Houston and it was embarrassed 120-88 at home. Including that loss, the Cavaliers have gone 4-8 in their last 12 games and they’ve burnt bettors with a 2-10 ATS mark during this span.

That’s been the theme of the season for the Cavs, who are a league worst 14-36-1 ATS. We’ve seen finish anywhere from 15-18 games below .500 at the betting counter over a regular season but to be 22 games below is eye-opening considering they have the best player in the league in LeBron James.

Despite those facts, Cleveland has been installed as a seven-point road favorite over Orlando (16-36 SU, 24-28 ATS). The Magic are coming off a surprising 111-109 win at Miami last night as an 8 ½-point road ‘dog, cashing money-line tickets as high as plus-325. Including that win, the Magic are now 9-2 ATS in their last 11 despite going 4-7 SU.

Before you run to the counter and pound Orlando, make a note that Frank Vogel’s team hasn’t won two straight since Nov. 10 and it has gone 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last seven games off a victory.

While that could have you leaning Cleveland, it’s hard to justify taking a team that has gone 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games as a road favorite. This will be the fourth and final meeting between the pair this season with Cleveland taking two of the first three but Orlando has earned covers in all of the games. Make a note that the Magic won’t have Aaron Gordon (hip) for the fifth consecutive game.

John Who?

The Wizards (31-22 SU, 25-28 ATS) have won and covered five straight games since All-Star point guard John Wall went down with a knee injury. The winning run includes a 111-102 road win over Indiana last night as a 3 ½-point favorite.

The oddsmakers expect the streak to end on Tuesday night with Washington visiting Philadelphia (25-25 SU, 27-23 ATS). The 76ers opened as six-point home favorites and while the fatigue factor could come into play, bettors should note that the Wizards have gone 5-2 when playing on no rest this season.

One of the losses did come at Philadelphia on Nov. 29 but Washington managed to cover as a 7 ½-point underdog in the 118-113 decision. Including that outcome, the home team has now won five straight in this series while the ‘over’ has gone 4-1 during this span.

Philadelphia has been a tad shaky of late, going 1-4 both SU and ATS in its last five but all of the losses occurred on the road. In true home games, the 76ers have won and covered six straight at the Wells Fargo Center and the offense has averaged 112.8 PPG in those games.

With the “City of Brotherly Love” buzzing after Sunday’s Super Bowl victory by the Eagles, you wonder if that momentum carries over to the hardwood.

Under Streaks

Even though the Bucks (26-25) and Knicks (27-26) have slightly leaned to the ‘over’ this season, both clubs bring solid ‘under’ runs into Tuesday matchup from Madison Square Garden. Milwaukee has watched its last eight go to the low side while New York is on a 5-0 ‘under’ run and this includes last Friday’s meeting between the pair.

In that game, Milwaukee earned a 92-90 home win over New York but failed to cover as a 4 ½-point favorite. This game was on an ‘over’ pace at halftime with the score knotted 55 apiece but the pair closed the game with 38 and 34-point quarters.

Milwaukee’s offense has been banged up lately and the team won’t have guards Malcom Brogdon (knee) or Matthew Dellavedova (ankle) for Tuesday.

You can make a case for New York to win this game based on its home record (16-10 SU, 16-10 ATS) but the team is in a serious funk right now, especially on offense. Including the 90-point effort versus the Bucks, New York is averaging 95.4 PPG and that number is inflated because it posted 107 and 111 against the Suns and Nets, two of the worst defensive teams in the league.

Keep an Eye On

The Rockets (-10) visit Brooklyn tonight and they’ve gone 4-2 SU in their last six games as double-digit favorites, more importantly they’re 0-6 ATS. Houston also bring a 10-1 ‘under’ run into this game and the Nets have been leaning low lately as well (8-2 L10).

Rare to see Atlanta (-2) listed as a favorite but that’s the case Tuesday when Memphis visits. It’s also rare to see the Hawks win two in a row, something they’ll be trying to do for the third time this season. Off a win, Atlanta is 2-13 this season but it will be facing one of the worst road teams in the Grizzlies (5-19).

The home team has won six of the past eight meetings in the Boston-Toronto series, which includes the first meeting this season from TD Garden as the Celtics escaped with a 95-94 win. The ‘under’ is also on a 6-2 run during this span.

Meanwhile on the West Coast, the Suns and Lakers have watched the visitors win four straight and five of the last six games in their head-to-head encounters. The ‘over’ has been the right side as well, with the high side on a 5-1 run and 12-3 in the previous 15 meetings.

Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com

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