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Grizzlies at Rockets Preview

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read

By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS)

Eye Test

The Grizzlies (28-29) finished the first half of the season with a winning record but are currently under. 500 after losing the first three games of a four-game road swing. Memphis remains in the eighth playoff position in the Western Conference with a 2.5-game edge over Portland in spite of riding a three-game losing streak for the first time since early December.

The Rockets (37-20) sit atop the Southwest division with a 2.5-game advantage over Dallas and positioned in the fourth slot of the Western Conference. Houston currently owns the second-longest winning streak in the league at four games behind the Lakers five-game hot streak, while the Rockets have gone 7-2 in February.

Current Form

Memphis had plenty of momentum heading into the All-Star break by winning eight of 10 games with the two losses coming at Philadelphia and New Orleans. However, the Grizzlies have struggled since the break by losing on the road to the Kings, Lakers, Clippers, while allowing at least 117 points in all three defeats.

The Rockets are on an 8-2 run since falling at Portland on January 29, while winning four straight games. Houston beat New York, 123-112 on Monday, but failed to cash as 12.5-point home favorites in spite of owning a 25-point lead with eight minutes remaining. Russell Westbrook did not suit up on Monday, but James Harden led the Rockets with 37 points for their sixth victory in the last seven games at Toyota Center.

Head-to-Head

The first two matchups took place at FedEx Forum in Memphis as the Rockets knocked off the Grizzlies, 107-100 as 5.5-point road favorites on November 4. Harden exploded for 44 points, while Westbrook sat out that night as the game easily finished 'under' the total of 230.

In the second meeting on January 14, the Grizzlies rallied from an early deficit to beat the Rockets, 121-110 to cash outright as 4.5-point 'dogs. Rookie sensation Ja Morant shot 10-of-11 from the floor to lead Memphis with 26 points, as the Grizzlies shot 51% from the field. That total was inflated to 240.5 and still remained 'under,' as three of four meetings last season went 'over' the total (two of those games had totals of 201 and 201.5).

Inside the Stats (Home/Away)

Points Per Game:
Memphis 112.8 (111.6)
Houston 118.6 (119.3)

Points Allowed:
Memphis 114.9 (115.8)
Houston 114.2 (111.5)

Home-Away Records

-- Memphis 12-16 SU, 13-14-1 ATS
-- Houston 20-8 SU, 14-14 ATS

Situational (Vs. Western Conference)

The Grizzlies have held their own on the road against the West by going 8-9 this season, including outright underdog victories against the Mavericks, Clippers, and Thunder. Memphis has compiled a 9-7-1 ATS record in this situation, including six covers as a 'dog of six points or more.

The Rockets are 12-6 at home against the West, however Houston has covered only twice in the last seven at Toyota Center when facing teams from their conference.

Score Projection

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Betcha Didn’t Know

Memphis is suffering through an 0-3 ATS skid for the fourth time this season. The Grizzlies have not failed to cover four consecutive games this season as they won and covered in the last three instances in this situation at Detroit on January 24 (125-112 win), at Golden State on December 9 (110-102 win), and against Minnesota on November 6 (137-121 win).

VI Prediction Tool

The VegasInsider.com Prediction resource gives an edge to either team in eight specific categories listed above and there are instances where both clubs receive a positive edge (). Depending on how you weigh the below factors could provide more reason to fade or follow those teams in your wagers.

VI Edge Predictions
Categories Memphis Grizzlies Houston Rockets
Eye Test -
Current Form -
Head-to-Head
Inside the Stats -
Home-Away -
Situational -
Score Projection -
Betcha Didn't Know -
Expert Picks - -

Total Talk (Over-Under)

Memphis: 28-29 (Away, 14-14 Over)
Houston: 26-29-1 (Home, 15-13 Under)

The Grizzlies have hit the 'over' in six of the last nine road games, as one of the 'unders' came on a 240.5 total in a 106-99 victory at Washington earlier this month.

The Rockets are 5-2 to the 'under' in the past seven games overall, although Houston is coming off an 'over' against New York on a 224 total. The 'under' is 7-2 in Houston's last nine with a total of 230 or higher.

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