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NBA Betting Odds, Preview and Tips for Saturday March 7

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
13 minute read
Editor's Note: NBA Money (+3873) and Totals (+4430) leader Antony Dinero is 13-3 over his last 16 picks, part of a 24-11 run. He's on a 110-65-1 (62.9%) run on totals and is 12-3 run over his last 15 guaranteed plays. Don't miss out on more NBA winners from him on VegasInsider.com this season. Click for Picks!

(SU - Straight-up Record, ATS - Against the Spread Record, O/U - Over/Under Record)

Top Game: Philadelphia 76ers (-2, 227) at Golden State Warriors
Chase Center – 8:30 p.m. ET, ABC

PHI: 38-25 SU, 29-33-1 ATS, 32-30-1 O/U
GSW: 14-49 SU, 30-32-1 ATS, 28-35 O/U

Last 10 games:
PHI: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 7-3 O/U
GSW: 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS, 3-7 O/U

Head-to-Head:

The Sixers beat Golden State 115-104 when these teams played on Jan. 28 despite shooting just 11-for-32 from 3-point range. D’Angelo Russell, now with Minnesota, led the Warriors with 28 points while current members of the team, Glenn Robinson II and Alec Burks combined for 32 points and 11 rebounds in the loss. Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, both of whom are sidelined tonight, combined for 41 points and 14 boards. Backup point guard Raul Neto, who made huge shots in Sacramento the other night, chipped in 19 points in 20 minutes off Philly’s bench in the previous encounter. The Warriors have won 11 of the last 13 in this series, having pulled off victories in 10 straight from Nov. 2013-’17.

Essentials to Know:

-- Warriors star Stephen Curry debuted with 23 points, seven boards and seven assists over 27 minutes of work in Thursday’s 121-113 loss to Toronto. He said he didn’t expect to feel as spry as he did and will likely not adhere to such strict minute restrictions going forward. It would be safe to assume that barring an in-game injury or foul trouble, he’ll play more than 30 minutes in this one.

-- 76ers guard Josh Richardson took a shot to the face in the second quarter of Philadelphia’s loss to the Clippers to open this four-game road trip and will attempt to clear concussion protocol in order to return to the lineup. He and Shake Milton would likely be the primary defenders on Curry. Draymond Green is attempting to return to the lineup after battling knee soreness and is considered ‘questionable,’ though he practiced on Friday, which is an indication he’ll play.

-- Philadelphia avoided a 10th straight road loss in Thursday’s 125-108 win in Sacramento. It hasn’t won consecutive games in opposing arenas since beating the Nets and Knicks on Jan. 18-20 and have only accomplished that feat twice all season.

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Odds Subject to Change (T&C's Apply, 21+)

Houston Rockets (-8/222) at Charlotte Hornets
Spectrum Center – 5:05 p.m. ET

HOU: 39-22 SU, 29-31-1 ATS, 27-34 O/U
CHA: 21-41 SU, 31-29-2 ATS, 29-33 O/U

Last 10 games:
HOU: 6-4 SU, 4-5-1 ATS, 4-6 O/U
CHA: 5-5 SU, 8-2 ATS, 2-8 O/U

Head-to-Head:

The Rockets have won 17 of the last 18 meetings with the Hornets, only losing in Charlotte in March of ‘16 since 2011. Houston won 125-110 , making 20 3-pointers, when these teams played on Feb. 4. Miles Bridges and Terry Rozier each scored 20 points for the Bees, who led 34-22 after the opening quarter before ultimately failing to cover as a 13-point underdog. The ‘over’ connected in a game that didn’t include Robert Covington, who hadn’t been acquired yet, or Russell Westbrook, who sat out and won’t play on Saturday night. James Harden finished with 40 points and 12 assists.

Essentials to Know:

-- Charlotte matched its fourth-largest scoring output in a loss in Wednesday’s 114-112 setback against the Nuggets. It has been held under 90 points in four of its last 10 games, riding with a youth movement that has slowed down the pace and locked in defensively. The ‘under’ is on 8-2 run in games involving the Hornets.

-- The Rockets are in danger of dropping a third straight game for just the third time all season and the first time since a run of four consecutive setbacks from Jan. 14-20. Harden is mired in a shooting slump, going 19-for-63 over his last three contests. He’s missed 38 of his 45 3-point attempts in that span. With Westbrook sitting out the first part of a back-to-back as he continues his maintenance program and Eric Gordon dealing with a sore left knee, Harden will be paired with Austin Rivers and Ben McLemore more and the team will need more offense out of forwards Robert Covington and Danuel House, Jr.

-- Charlotte guard Devonte’ Graham missed Tuesday’s 104-103 loss to the Spurs after twisting his ankle over the weekend. The Hornets’ leading scorer (17.8 ppg) returned with 24 points in the near-upset of Denver and should suit up here next to Rozier. Charlotte has lost six of its last seven home games.

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Odds Subject to Change (T&C's Apply, 21+)

Utah Jazz (-8.5, 214) at Detroit Pistons
Little Caesars Arena – 7:05 p.m. ET

UTA: 40-22 SU, 30-30-2 ATS, 32-30 O/U
DET: 20-43 SU, 25-37-1 ATS, 37-25-1 O/U

Last 10 games:
UTA: 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS, 5-5 O/U
DET: 1-9 SU, 6-4 ATS, 4-6 O/U

Head-to-Head:

Utah has never lost in Detroit’s new downtown arena, last falling to the Pistons at home in Jan. 2016 and in Auburn Hills back in late October of ‘15. The Jazz have won three straight over the Pistons in Michigan and seven in a row overall following this season’s 104-81 conquest on Dec. 30. Utah trailed 40-39 at the break before dominating the second half in a game where the Pistons shot just 38 percent. Derrick Rose, now likely done for the season, scored a team-high 20 points. Donovan Mitchell, who the Pistons famously passed on in the ’17 NBA Draft, scored a game-high 23 points while All-Star center Rudy Gobert chipped in 13 points and 19 rebounds.

Essentials to Know:

-- The Jazz improved to 4-0 as an underdog since Dec. 28 with its conquest in Boston on Friday night, earning a fourth straight win since coming out of the All-Star break with four consecutive home losses. Utah is looking to wrap up a perfect four-game roadie here and has won five straight out of a suitcase, covering the spread in four of their victories. The Jazz hit 13 first-half 3-pointers in racing out against the Celtics and leads the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage. Mike Conley, Jr. made six shots from beyond the arc and finished with 25 points, looking more like his old self in producing his second-largest scoring output since joining the Jazz.

-- The Pistons have seen forward Christian Wood averaged 21.2 points and 10.1 rebounds over their last 11 games since Andre Drummond was dealt and he became the new face of the franchise. Guard Bruce Brown has missed the past four games due to knee soreness but is expected to return in this one. Detroit has a different look at guard with former Wizard Jordan McRae on board after being let go by Denver earlier this week. He scored 15 points in 26 minutes in his Pistons debut.

-- Utah is just 1-3 SU and ATS on the second night of a back-to-back since Dec. 1. For the season, they’re 4-3 SU/3-4 ATS in this situation.

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Odds Subject to Change (T&C's Apply, 21+)

Denver Nuggets (-7.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers
Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse – 7:35 p.m. ET

DEN: 42-20 SU, 29-30-3 ATS, 30-31-1 O/U
CLE: 17-45 SU, 27-32-3 ATS, 35-27 O/U

Last 10 games:
DEN: 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS, 7-3 O/U
CLE: 4-6 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, 5-5 O/U

Head-to-Head:

The Cavs pulled off a stunning 111-103 upset in Denver as a 12.5-point underdog on Jan. 11, snapping a two-game losing streak in this series. Cleveland is looking for its first sweep of the Nuggets since the 2015-16 season when LeBron James was running the show. Collin Sexton scored 25 points while Kevin Love, Thompson and Cedi Osman all came up with double-doubles. Jamal Murray led Denver with 24 points.

Essentials to Know:

-- This is the second in a stretch of nine roadies over 11 games that Denver must play between now and March 25. The Nuggets are 18-12 away from home but they have failed to cover in their last three road games. Their last six visits to Eastern Conference cities have resulted in a 6-0 run for the ‘over.’
-- Cleveland has dropped four straight games after matching a season-best run with four victories in five outings. The Cavs are 3-5 under new head coach J.B. Bickerstaff, going 4-3-1 ATS in those contests.

-- Cavs centers Andre Drummond (calf) and Tristan Thompson (knee) practiced on Friday and could return to the lineup to give Bickerstaff multiple options to throw at Nuggets All-Star center Nikola Jokic. Larry Nance, Jr. and Kevin Love have been doing the bulk of the work in the post of late, getting contributions from Ante Zizic.

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Odds Subject to Change (T&C's Apply, 21+)

Atlanta Hawks at Memphis Grizzlies (-5.5)
FedEx Forum – 8:05 p.m. ET

ATL: 19-45 SU, 29-34-1 ATS, 38-26 O/U
MEM: 31-32 SU, 33-29-1 ATS, 29-34 O/U

Last 10 games:
ATL: 4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS, 6-4 O/U
MEM: 4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS, 2-8 O/U

Ja Morant and the Grizzlies look to sweep the season series from the Hawks. Ja Morant and the Grizzlies look to sweep the season series from the Hawks. (AP)

Head-to-Head:

The Grizzlies posted a 127-88 rout over the Hawks on Monday night, dominating the first matchup between last year’s Rookie of the Year runner-up Trae Young and this season’s likely recipient, Ja Morant. Memphis won the second half 75-39 as the Hawks collectively hung their heads in an awful performance. Nine Grizzlies players scored in double-figures, led by Gorgui Dieng’s 17 points off the bench. Young finished just 5-for-17 from the field, missing all four of his 3-point attempts. Atlanta was just 9-for-35 from beyond the arc in the loss. These teams have split the season series in three straight years. Memphis last won consecutive games in ’17. Atlanta hasn’t won back-to-back games against the Griz since ’15-’16.

Essentials to Know:

-- The Grizzlies had allowed fewer than 90 points in three straight games prior to Friday’s 121-96 loss at Dallas. The NBA hadn’t seen a team do that defensively since the ’17-18 season (Jazz). Memphis became the first team since 1970 to win consecutive road games by 39 or more points but struggled mightily in wrapping up a three-game road trip. This will be the team’s first home game of the month. It went 3-1 SU and ATS at FedEx Forum in February.

-- The Hawks fell in Washington D.C. against the Wizards 118-112 as Young sat out with the flu. He’s hoping to feel well enough to participate in this game but his status in unclear. Rookie Cam Reddish scored 28 points for Atlanta in the loss. Jeff Teague started for Young at the point. The ‘under’ has connected in the last two games involving the Hawks and is on a 7-1 run in games featuring the Griz, cashing five straight times.

-- With both teams playing on the second night of a back-to-back, it’s worth pointing out that Memphis is 6-3 SU and ATS in the closer, winning and covering in six of its last seven on that second night. The Hawks have been atrocious, coming in 2-9 SU (3-8 ATS) in those situations, although they managed to win the most recent one by defeating Portland on Feb. 29.

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Odds Subject to Change (T&C's Apply, 21+)

Sacramento Kings at Portland Trail Blazers (-3/230)
Moda Center – 10:05 p.m. ET

SAC: 27-35 SU, 32-29-1 ATS, 32-30 O/U
POR: 28-36 SU, 26-36-2 ATS, 36-28 O/U

Last 10 games:
SAC: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 5-4-1 O/U
POR: 3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS, 6-4 O/U

Head-to-Head:

These teams are wrapping up their season series, playing for the first time since meeting in December. They played in the second game back on Oct. 25 in Sacramento and got together on Nov. 12 as well. After splitting the games in California’s capital city, Portland won the most recent matchup on Dec. 4 by a 127-116 score, shooting 16-for-32 from 3-point range. C.J. McCollum scored 33 points in the win and has been more aggressive of late, scoring 20 or more points in 10 straight games. The Blazers have won seven of the last nine matchups. The teams have nearly identical records and are 3.5 games behind Memphis for the final playoff berth in the West, making this game vital to both.

Essentials to Know:

-- The Blazers fell 127-117 in Phoenix on Friday night, losing in wire-to-wire fashion despite the Suns being down multiple starters. Portland is 4-11 over its last 15 road games .

-- Sacramento hasn’t won in Portland since Dec. 8, 2012, dropping 12 consecutive games there. The Kings are 13-19 on the road but have won three of their last four outright and have gone 4-0 ATS away from home since the All-Star break. They return to Sacramento to play their next four and won’t be back out on the road until March 19.

-- The ‘over’ is 2-1 in the season series and 3-1 over Portland’s last four games. The Trail Blazers are 3-7 on the second night of a back-to-back (4-5-1 ATS).

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Odds Subject to Change (T&C's Apply, 21+)

Follow Tony Mejia on Twitter at @TonyMejiaNBA or e-mail him at mejia@vegasinsider.com

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