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NBA Betting Essentials, Odds and Angles for Wednesday, March 11

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
8 minute read
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(SU - Straight-up Record, ATS - Against the Spread Record, O/U - Over/Under Record)

New Orleans Pelicans (-1.5, 235) at Sacramento Kings
Golden 1 Center – 10:35 p.m. ET, ESPN

NO: 28-36 SU, 32-29-3 ATS, 36-28 O/U
SAC: 28-36 SU, 33-29-2 ATS, 34-30 O/U

Last 10 games:
NO: 5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, 5-5 O/U
SAC: 7-3 SU, 7-2-1 ATS, 5-4-1 O/U

Head-to-Head:

This is the second of three meetings between the teams tied for ninth place in the Western Conference standings. Although the Grizzlies remain well-positioned to reach the playoffs since they’ll remain three games up on the winner of this one, this is obviously enormous for both of these teams, who will meet for the final time on March 22 in New Orleans. The Pels won this season’s only matchup 117-115 on Jan. 4 in a game that was played before Zion Williamson debuted. Lonzo Ball finished with 24 points and 10 assists, helping overcome Harrison Barnes’ 30-point outburst.

Essentials to Know:

-- New Orleans was outrebounded 51-44 by the Kings in their win but are better equipped to win the battle of the boards with Williamson in the fold. The Pels are 6-3 on the road in Williamson’s first games in opposing arenas.

-- The Kings are playing the second of a four-game homestand but won’t play again until Sunday night against the Nets. Sacramento is in the midst of a stretch where it will play 10 of 14 at home.

-- The over has connected in four straight games involving the Kings, who have surrendered an average of 120 points per game in that span. The Pels have scored at least 120 points in three of the last four.

Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers (-12)
Wells Fargo Center – 7:05 p.m. ET

DET: 20-45 SU, 26-38-1 ATS, 38-26-1 O/U
PHI: 38-26 SU, 29-34-1 ATS, 33-30-1 O/U

Last 10 games:
DET: 1-9 SU, 6-4 ATS, 5-5 O/U
PHI: 5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS, 7-3 O/U

Head-to-Head:

This is the last of three encounters between these teams this season and the only matchup set to be played in Philly. The Pistons lost the first two matchups at home, falling 117-111 on Oct. 26 and 125-109 on Dec. 23. While the 76ers have the NBA’s top home mark (28-2), Detroit’s 9-23 mark on the road is tied for fifth-worst in the league. Andre Drummond was present for both of the Pistons’ two losses against the Joel Embiid-led Sixers, so with neither big man in the equation tonight, this should be a completely deifferent game.

Essentials to Know:

-- The last five 76ers’ games have all gone ‘over’ the posted total with Embiid and Simmons out. Josh Richardson is hoping to clear concussion protocol in order to return to the lineup and it’s clear Philadelphia has missed one of their top on-ball defenders.

-- Detroit shot 4-for-19 in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s loss to the Knicks and lost new starting center John Henson to an ankle injury that will probably keep him out tonight. The Pistons’ 84 points was their fourth-lowest scoring output of the season.

Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat (-9.5)
AmericanAirlines Arena – 7:35 p.m. ET

CHA: 22-42 SU, 32-29-3 ATS, 30-34 O/U
MIA: 41-23 SU, 33-30-1 ATS, 38-25-1 O/U

Last 10 games:
CHA: 4-6 SU, 7-2-1 ATS, 3-7 O/U
MIA: 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS, 7-3 O/U

Head-to-Head:

This is the first of three meetings between these Southeast Division squads over the next month. Charlotte will host the next two matchups on March 30 and April 13 but is a heavy underdog here against a Heat squad that has posted a 27-4 home mark, the third-best home record in the league. Miami won the first matchup 117-100, dominating on the boards as Kelly Olynyk pulled down 16 rebounds.

Essentials to Know:

-- Jimmy Butler left Sunday’s win over Washington with a toe injury. Although he’s feeling better, it remains to be seen whether he’ll suit up. Tyler Herro (ankle) and Jae Crowder (concussion) each practiced on Tuesday and will likely play.

-- Terry Rozier scored a career-high 40 points in a double-overtime loss to Atlanta the other night. He had 19 points and nine rebounds in the first matchup against Miami and will look to get the better of Heat rookie Kendrick Nunn to give his team a chance.

New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks (-4.5/231)
State Farm Arena – 7:35 p.m. ET

NYK: 20-45 SU, 34-30-1 ATS, 30-34-1 O/U
ATL: 20-46 SU, 29-35-2 ATS, 39-27 O/U

Last 10 games:
NYK: 3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS, 7-3 O/U
ATL: 5-5 SU, 4-5-1 ATS, 6-4 O/U

Head-to-Head:

Neither one of these teams are going to make the playoffs and have nearly identical records that rank just ahead of Cleveland in the Eastern Conference standings. This is the third and final matchup between the squads and each of the first two encounters were extremely high-scoring. New York won 143-120 on Dec. 17 and fell 140-135 on Feb. 9, getting victimized by a 48-point, 13-assist night from Trae Young. The 140-point night is the Hawks’ second-highest scoring output of the season. Essentials to Know: -- Atlanta connected on a season-best 21 3-pointers in a double-overtime win over the Hornets. Young is averaging 45 points per game through his first two matchups with New York.

-- Knicks point guard Dennis Smith, Jr. practiced over the weekend and is close to returning from a concussion that has kept him out since Feb. 27. The ‘over’ is on a 7-2 run in games involving New York.

Denver Nuggets (-2.5) at Dallas Mavericks
AmericanAirlines Center – 8:05 p.m. ET, ESPN

DEN: 43-21 SU, 30-31-3 ATS, 30-33-1 O/U
DAL: 39-27 SU, 34-29-3 ATS, 40-26 O/U

Last 10 games:
DEN: 5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS, 5-5 O/U
DAL: 5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS, 4-6 O/U

Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. (AP)

Head-to-Head:

The Nuggets and Mavs have played twice this season and will meet one more time on April 13, so they’ll determine how things will shake out in the Western Conference playoff picture. At the moment, Denver is third and Dallas is seventh, so there’s a possibility that these teams could meet in a first-round matchup. The Nuggets won 107-106 on Jan. 8, getting 33 points and seven assists from Nikola Jokic to overcome 27 points, nine boards and 10 assists from Luka Doncic.

Essentials to Know:

-- Jokic has averaged just nine points over his last two games, shooting 8-for-24 from the field. He had a fantastic run in over the last few weeks after starting slowly and played himself into better shape along the way, losing over 20 pounds in-season. There’s a good chance he’s getting his body ready for the playoff grind, so this slump may continue in the short-term as he tries to get himself ready. Denver overcame his sluggish play to beat the Bucks on Monday, taking advantage of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s absence.

-- Tim Hardaway, Jr. has averaged 23.5 points over the past four games but will be looking to help Dallas bounce back from a disappointing loss to San Antonio in which it blew a second-half lead. Hardaway’s contributions will be vital since Seth Curry will remain out of the lineup due to an ankle injury. The Mavs are 6-5 SU and ATS on the second night of a back-to-back.

Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder (-2)
Chesapeake Energy Arena – 8:05 p.m. ET

UTA: 41-23 SU, 30-31-3 ATS, 33-31 O/U
OKC: 40-24 SU, 34-29-3 ATS, 30-33-1 O/U

Last 10 games:
UTA: 5-5 SU, 2-8 ATS, 4-6 O/U
OKC: 8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS, 5-4-1 O/U

Head-to-Head:

These teams met to open the season way back on Oct. 23 and will square off again in Game No. 81 on April 13. The Thunder won the most recent matchup 104-90 behind 27 points from Dennis Schroder. Separated by a single game, these teams aren’t likely to meet one another in the postseason unless they end up as the 4-5 matchup but are likely going to be jockeying for seeding the rest of the way.

Essentials to Know:

-- The Jazz have struggled at home but have won their last six road games. OKC is on a 17-5 run and has posted three consecutive wins. The first two matchups between these teams were played in Oklahoma City.

-- Guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed Sunday’s win at Boston with a hip contusion but practiced on Tuesday and is expected to return if he suffers not setbacks prior to the contest. -- The ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run in games involving Utah, which has scored under 100 points in two of the last three contests, which is only the second time that’s happened all season.

Follow Tony Mejia on Twitter at @TonyMejiaNBA or e-mail him at mejia@vegasinsider.com

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