Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:45 AM

Pacers vs. Mavericks Predictions, Odds, Preview

Mar. 26, 2021
by Jonathan Willis
NBA Expert

The Dallas Mavericks have started to make their playoff push. Dallas is currently a half-game ahead of the San Antonio Spurs for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference after sitting five games under .500 on February 1.

The Mavericks loom large as a dangerous first-round opponent, but they still have a way to go to qualify for the playoffs. They are a moderate favorite over the Indiana Pacers on Friday night.

Pacers vs. Mavericks Betting Resources

Betting Odds - Pacers vs. Mavericks

Line Movements

Subject to Change

  • Spread: Mavericks -4.5
  • Money-Line: Dallas -185, Indiana +165
  • Total: 227

The Pacers own a 3-11 ATS record the last 14 games as they travel to Dallas to face the Mavericks. (AP)

Pacers vs. Mavericks Current Form-Last Game

Dallas has won 15 of its last 21 games after a sluggish start. The Mavericks are only four games outside a spot in the top four, but they have not been great at home this season. They are just 11-9 in Dallas.

The Mavericks alternated wins and losses over a tough six-game stretch after the All-Star Break. They beat San Antonio, Denver, and the L.A. Clippers, but they lost to Oklahoma City, Portland, and the Clippers.

We have seen them win consecutive games this week though with a 30-point win in Portland and a 20-point rout of Minnesota.

Kristaps Porzingis was the best player on the court against Minnesota. Porzingis went 11-23 for 29 points and added nine rebounds in Dallas’ 128-108 win. Luka Doncic was not particularly effective, but Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jalen Brunson shined off the bench.

Indiana has been a middling team all season. The Pacers have never been more than a handful of games above or below .500. They were 12-9 in early February, but they entered the All-Star Break at 16-19.

This team is 4-4 since the All-Star Break. The Pacers have done well to go .500 during this stretch considering six of those games were on the road, and they faced the Lakers, Suns, Nuggets, Nets, Heat, and Bucks. Indiana knocked off Detroit in its most recent game on Wednesday.

Caris LeVert had his best game yet with the Pacers. He went 10 of 19 from the floor for a team-high 28 points. LeVert had yet to tally 20 points or more since being traded from Brooklyn in January.

Pacers vs. Mavericks Head-to-Head

  • Jan. 20, 2021 - Mavericks 124 at Pacers 112, Dallas -2.5, Over 221

(SU-Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread, OU - Over-Under)

Indiana Pacers Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

  • Overall: 20-23 SU, 17-26 ATS, 26-16-1 OU
  • Road: 12-11 SU, 11-12 ATS, 15-7-1 OU

Indiana traded Victor Oladipo to Houston for LeVert as part of the James Harden trade. LeVert was supposed to come in and be one of the top players on the team, but he was sidelined for two months after his physical found kidney cancer. Doctors only cleared him to return after the All-Star Break, so this will be just his eighth game with the Pacers.

LeVert is making 40.6% of his field goals and 34.9% of his threes. He has been somewhat inconsistent with his shooting, but we saw him show that promise against Detroit on Wednesday.

Domantas Sabonis is averaging a double-double with 20.1 PPG and 11.2 RPG this season. He is making 52.2% of his field goals and does a nice job running the offense with 6.2 APG.

Sabonis is one of three players on the Pacers with at least 6.0 APG, joining Malcolm Brogdon and T.J. McConnell for the honor.

Brogdon leads Indiana with 21.4 PPG. He is filling the stat sheet in other ways too, proving to be more than just the three-and-D player that Milwaukee originally thought he was as a rookie. Brogdon can be a lockdown defender, but he doesn’t have some of the raw numbers you might expect.

Dallas Mavericks Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

  • Overall: 23-19 SU, 20-22 ATS, 19-23 OU
  • Home: 11-9 SU, 8-12 ATS, 9-11 OU

Doncic is a future NBA MVP. He is a triple-double machine, averaging 28.6 PPG, 8.3 RPG, and 9.1 APG on the season. Doncic’s 26.33 PER is easily the best on Dallas, and he is making a respectable 48.2% of his field goals and 36.7% of his threes.

Although Doncic wasn’t great on Wednesday night against Minnesota, he poured in 117 points in the Mavericks’ previous three games, knocking down at least 55% of his shots in each outing.

There was some speculation that the Mavericks might deal Porzingis at the trade deadline. Dallas decided to hold firm with the 7’3 center though.

The former Knicks' standout is the team’s second-best player, averaging 20.0 PPG and 8.6 RPG in 27 games, but his durability has not been great over the course of his career. Porzingis is hitting 48.0% of his field goals and 36.7% of his threes.

Dallas made the decision to trade for veteran guard J.J. Redick on Thursday. The Mavericks didn’t have to give up much to acquire him, and they are hoping he can get back to his old self over the next two months.

Redick is making 41.5% of his threes over the course of his long career, but he has made just 36.4% of his triples this season.

These guards do a great job of getting into the paint and making shots. Five of Dallas’ top six scorers are all making at least 55% of their two-point field goals, led by Jalen Brunson. Brunson is having the best season of his young career, making 53.1% of his field goals and 39.8% of his threes.

Maxi Kleber is the best perimeter shooter on the Mavericks. He is making 47.1% of his threes, making him the only player on Dallas that is knocking down at least 40% of his triples.

Key Injuries

Indiana Pacers

  • SG T.J. Warren: Foot - Out

Dallas Mavericks

  • C Willie Cauley-Stein: Quarantine - Questionable

Pacers vs. Mavericks Prediction

This is the second meeting between these teams this season. Dallas beat Indiana in Indianapolis 124-112 back on January 20. Porzingis flourished in that game, while Doncic had 12 rebounds and 12 assists to overcome a shaky shooting performance.

There is value in the Pacers this time. LeVert gives this team another weapon, and Sabonis can outperform Porzingis. Indiana has a decently deep bench, so the Pacers can potentially get the upset.

Score Prediction: Pacers 115, Mavericks 113
Best Bet: Indiana +4.5

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