Pelicans vs. Nets Predictions, Odds, Preview

Apr. 7, 2021
by Joe Williams
NBA Expert

The New Orleans Pelicans (22-28) wrap up a three-game road trip with a visit to the Brooklyn Nets (35-16), the team tied for the best record in the Eastern Conference. The game will be nationally televised on ESPN at 7:30 p.m. ET.

The Pelicans limp into this one with just eight wins in 23 tries away from the Crescent City, although they have split their first two games on the current road trip. The Nets bounced back from a loss in Chicago on Sunday, picking up a 114-112 win against New York at Barclays Center on Monday.

Pelicans vs. Nets Betting Resources

Betting Odds - Pelicans vs. Nets

Line Movements

Subject to Change

  • Spread: Brooklyn -10.5
  • Money-Line: Nets -560, Pelicans +420
  • Total: 233.5

The Pelicans are decisive underdogs heading into Wednesday's battle, as the Nets are favored by 10.5 points. Brooklyn has failed to cover each of its past four games as a double-digit favorite.

The total is set at 233.5 for this first meeting for this intra-conference matchup. The Nets hit the OVER in their most recent win against the Knicks, snapping a 4-0 UNDER streak. Conversely, the Pellies hit the UNDER in Atlanta on Tuesday, snapping a 3-0 OVER run.

Kyrie Irving leads the banged-up Nets on Wednesday night against the Pelicans at Barclays Center. (AP)

Pelicans vs. Nets Current Form-Last Game

The Pelicans tumbled 123-107 in Atlanta on Tuesday night as 3.5-point underdogs as the UNDER (232) connected. They're just 1-3 SU/ATS across the past four outings, while the OVER has connected in three of those outings.

They'll be happy they don't have to see the Hawks anymore, as they are 0-2 SU/ATS against Atlanta over the past five days, losing both by an average of 19.5 points. New Orleans has scored 103 or more points in nine straight outings, while allowing 115 or more points in each of the past four.

The Nets have been tested by a couple of subpar Eastern Conference clubs over the past two outings. They fell straight up at Chicago as 2.5-point favorites on Sunday, 115-107, while rebounding with a hard-fought 114-112 win against New York at home as 6.5-point favorites on Monday.

Failing to cover and UNDER results has been a common theme for the high-octane Nets lately, going 1-6 ATS across the past seven games overall while the UNDER is 7-2 over the previous nine. They're also 3-10 ATS across the past 13 dating back to March 11.

Pelicans vs. Nets Head-to-Head

  • Dec. 17, 2019 - Nets 108 at Pelicans 101 (OT), Brooklyn -2, Under 228.5
  • Nov. 4, 2019 - Nets 135 vs. Pelicans 125, Brooklyn -3.5, Over 239.5

These two clubs haven't faced each other since arenas will wide open, no one was wearing a mask and nobody had ever heard of COVID-19 before. In fact, we've had two Christmases and two New Year's celebrations since these teams last met in the Crescent City on Dec. 17, 2019.

With the personnel so different from the last time these teams have played on the same hardwood together, there isn't much to glean from even the most recent results. But Brooklyn did go 2-0 SU/ATS in the previous two meetings in 2019, and we're likely headed for another Nets victory here.

(SU-Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread, OU - Over-Under)

New Orleans Pelicans Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

  • Overall: 22-27 SU, 23-26 ATS, 33-16 OU
  • Road: 8-14 SU, 11-11 ATS, 12-10 OU

The Pelicans seem to rise to the occasion when they're a rather decisive favorite, feeling disrespected. They have covered five straight games as an underdog of 6.5 or more points dating back to Jan. 21, and they won outright against Milwaukee in NOLA on Jan. 29 as a 6.5-point 'dog, 131-126.

New Orleans also won outright against the Utah Jazz at home on March 1, 129-124, as a seven-point underdog. In addition, they topped the Clippers at home by 20 points as a six-point underdog on March 14. There is a common theme here, too, as they won at Denver on March 21 as 6.5-point underdogs by a 113-109 count.

The Pelicans enter 4-1 ATS in the past five on the road, and 4-1 ATS in the past five as a road underdog, too. They're also 6-2 ATS across the past eight tries against teams with an overall winning record.

Brooklyn Nets Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

  • Overall: 35-16 SU, 24-27 ATS, 30-21 OU
  • Home: 21-6 SU, 12-15 ATS, 14-13 OU

Brooklyn might be winning plenty of games lately, even without its two biggest studs, Kevin Durant and James Harden. Those two are sidelined by hamstring ailments. Bettors haven't been going their way lately, especially since the Nets have covered just once in the past seven outings.

The Nets enter on a eight-game win streak at home since inexplicably falling 115-98 to the Dallas Mavericks on Feb. 27. They're just 2-6 ATS in those eight outings, however. They're also just 1-6 ATS across the past seven as a home favorite. They're also just 1-9 ATS in the previous 10 overall when favored.

Brooklyn is one of those teams which seem to play down to their competition, too. They have failed to cover in each of their past six against teams with a losing record.

As far as the totals are concerned, the Nets have hit the UNDER in four of the past five games overall, and the UNDER is 6-0 in their past six following a straight-up victory. The UNDER is 8-2 in Brooklyn's past 10 at Barclays, too.

Key Injuries

New Orleans Pelicans

  • SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Leg - Out
  • SG Josh Hart: Thumb - Out
  • C Jaxson Hayes: Ankle - Questionable
  • SF Brandon Ingram: Toe - Questionable
  • PG Kira Lewis Jr.: Calf - Questionable

Brooklyn Nets

  • PG Spencer Dinwiddie: Knee - Out
  • SF Kevin Durant: Hamstring - Out
  • SG James Harden: Hamstring - Out
  • SG Tyler Johnson: Knee - Out
  • PG Landry Shamet: Ankle - Out

Pelicans vs. Nets Prediction

As mentioned above, the Pelicans seem to step up their game when they're heavy underdogs. They're 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS in the past five as an underdog of 6.5 or more points. Look for the trend to continue, at least as far as the covers, although I think Brooklyn is still able to scratch out a straight-up victory here.

As far as the total is concerned, it's a pretty high number considering a huge chunk of Brooklyn's offense will be in designer street clothes sitting on the side. Both of these teams allow right around 115 points per game, and this certainly won't be confused for a defensive battle. However, the lean here is to the UNDER since so many parts are missing for the home side.

Score Prediction: Nets 116, Pelicans 110
Best Bet: Pelicans +10.5
Best Bet: UNDER 233.5