Nuggets vs. Warriors Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

Apr. 23, 2021

by Jonathan Willis
NBA Expert
VegasInsider.com

Nikola Jokic is currently the odds-on favorite to be named the 2020-21 NBA MVP. Jokic has odds north of -350 as of April 22, and the only other player oddsmakers believe has a realistic chance of winning the award is Philadelphia's Joel Embiid.

If Jokic were to be named MVP, he would become the third European player (after Dirk Nowitzki and Giannis Antetokuonmpo) to win the award. Jokic will get another opportunity to prove his case on national television when his Denver Nuggets face the Golden State Warriors on Friday night.

Nuggets vs. Warriors Betting Resources

Matchup: Western Conference
Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
Venue: Chase Center
Location: San Francisco, California
Date: Friday, Apr. 23, 2021
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Bet: BetMGM | betrivers |FanDuel |bet365 |DraftKings |Best Sportsbooks

Betting Odds - Nuggets vs. Warriors

Line Movements

Subject to Change

Spread: Nuggets -3
Money-Line: Denver -150, Golden State +125
Total: 228.5

The Nuggets look to capitalize off their one-point win at Portland as Denver travels to Golden State on Friday. (AP)

Nuggets vs. Warriors Current Form-Last Game

Jokic isn’t the only potential NBA MVP that will be on the court though. Stephen Curry has been on fire in April. Curry scored at least 32 points in 11 straight games prior to Wednesday night’s loss to Washington. That has helped Golden State win six of its last nine games and put the Warriors in position to make the play-in tournament.

Golden State beat some pretty good teams during that run. The Warriors kicked it off by knocking off Milwaukee in early April, and they also defeated Denver and Philadelphia. However, they couldn’t beat the lowly Washington Wizards, losing to them twice in the span of 13 days.

Curry went cold from the floor in Golden State’s 118-114 loss to the Wizards on Wednesday night. He went just 7-25 from the field and Andrew Wiggins went 5-of-20 as the Warriors shot less than 40% from beyond the arc.

Denver has won 12 of its last 14 games. The Nuggets have continued to win games despite not having Jamal Murray, and it’s largely due to Jokic. However, one of those two losses came against Golden State 11 days ago.

Curry made history by surpassing Wilt Chamberlain as the Warriors’ all-time leading scorer in a 116-107 win over the Nuggets. He had his third 50-point game of the season against Denver, making 10 of 18 threes to lead Golden State to a win.

Jokic nearly had a triple-double with 27 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists, but the rest of the team struggled aside from Michael Porter Jr.

The Nuggets won their fourth straight game on Wednesday night, beating the Portland Trail Blazers, 106-105. Jokic had 25 points and nine rebounds in the win, as Portland’s guards struggled from beyond the arc in the loss.

Nuggets vs. Warriors Head-to-Head

Apr. 12, 2021 - Warriors 116 vs. Nuggets 107, Golden State +5, Under 227.5
Jan. 14, 2021 - Nuggets 114 vs. Warriors 104, Denver -4.5, Under 226

(SU-Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread, OU - Over-Under)

Denver Nuggets Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

Overall: 38-20 SU, 28-30 ATS, 33-25 OU
Road: 18-10 SU, 15-13 ATS, 14-14 OU

It’s been incredible to watch Jokic this season. He has become a force of nature, posting career-highs in points (26.4 PPG), rebounds (11.0 RPG), and assists (8.7 APG).

Jokic leads Denver in all three of those categories, and he is also hitting 41.1% of his threes. His 31.65 PER is tops in the NBA, as his play has kept Denver in contention to host a playoff series even without Murray.

Porter Jr. has played extremely well since Murray went down with an injury. Porter has always had the talent and potential, but the question was his durability. He was the top recruit in the country and likely would have been the No. 1 pick in the 2018 NBA Draft if a back injury didn’t lead to him only playing a handful of games in his one season with Missouri.

Porter is averaging 17.7 PPG and 7.7 RPG on the year. He has scored at least 20 points in 10 of his last 12 games, and he is making 56.0% of his field goals this season.

Denver has one of the best offenses in the league. However, the Nuggets don’t have a great interior defense. They rank 26th in the NBA in this category, allowing opponents to make 54.4% of their field goals inside the arc. While Jokic is a fully developed offensive talent, he needs some help on defense.

Golden State Warriors Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

Overall: 29-30 SU, 28-31 ATS, 24-35 OU
Home: 17-10 SU, 16-11 ATS, 12-15 OU

Curry had his worst game in almost two months on Wednesday against Washington. Curry went just 2-14 from beyond the arc and turned the ball over six times in the loss.

The two-time MVP has been incredible in April though, averaging 38.7 PPG and making 52.3% of his field goals and 47.1% of his threes.

The biggest problem with Golden State this season is that there hasn’t been a quality second scorer to help take the pressure off Curry. Klay Thompson suffered another major injury prior to the start of the season, Draymond Green has completely lost his shooting touch, rookie James Wiseman sustained a season-ending injury, and Kelly Oubre Jr. has shot well from the floor.

Wiggins has been the second-best scorer on the Warriors with 18.1 PPG. Wiggins is shooting at a decent clip, making 47.2% of his field goals and 37.9% of his threes, but he disappears for long stretches.

Opponents have caught on to that, so they will shy away from Wiggins and make things more difficult for his teammates at those times.

Golden State is a better defensive team than you might think this season. The Warriors rank fifth in opponents’ effective field goal percentage, fourth in two-point percentage, and sixth in shooting percentage.

However, they have been the worst team at sending opponents to the line with other teams averaging 26 free throw attempts a night against the Warriors.

Key Injuries

Denver Nuggets

SG Jamal Murray: Knee - Out
PG Monte Morris: Hamstring - Out

Golden State Warriors

SF Juan Toscano-Anderson: Concussion - Questionable
SG Damione Lee: Quarantine - Out
C James Wiseman: Knee - Out
PF Eric Paschall: Hip - Out