Suns vs. Warriors Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

May 11, 2021

by Jonathan Willis
NBA Expert
VegasInsider.com

It’s going to be tough for the Phoenix Suns to run down the Utah Jazz in their bid to claim the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.

Phoenix is 1.5 games behind Utah in the West, and the Suns are about to play four games in six days to close out the regular season. They will start this last leg on the road against the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday night before hosting Portland and then going on the road for consecutive games against San Antonio over the weekend.

Suns vs. Warriors Betting Resources

Matchup: Western Conference
Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
Venue: Chase Center
Location: San Francisco, California
Date: Tuesday, May 11, 2021
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
TV: NBA League Pass
Bet: BetMGM | betrivers |FanDuel |bet365 |DraftKings |Best Sportsbooks

Betting Odds - Suns vs. Warriors

Line Movements

Subject to Change

Spread: Suns -5
Money-Line: Phoenix -200, Golden State +175
Total: 230

The Warriors play with no rest on Tuesday night as Golden State welcomes in Phoenix to Chase Center. (AP)

Suns vs. Warriors Current Form-Last Game

Golden State’s win on Monday night over the Utah Jazz meant a lot for both the Warriors and Suns. The Warriors locked up a spot in the play-in tournament with the victory, and they stayed one game in front of the Memphis Grizzlies in their bid to finish with the No. 8 seed. That win also helped the Suns stay within striking distance of the Jazz for the top spot out West.

Stephen Curry wasn’t at his best against Utah. He led the Warriors with 36 points on the night, but he went just 3-of-13 from beyond the arc.

Kent Bazemore scored 19 points and Jordan Poole came off the bench to chip in 20 points in the 119-116 win.

However, the Warriors had to hold off the Jazz down the stretch. They led by 16 points with a little more than six minutes left, but Utah rallied behind Jordan Clarkson.

The Jazz guard scored 11 points in 86 seconds, hitting a step back three to give the Jazz a two-point lead with 1:11 left on the clock. Curry needed three tries to give the Warriors the lead back, but he drained a three with 14.5 seconds left to put the Warriors ahead for good.

Curry has led Golden State to three straight victories and five wins in their last six games. He has scored at least 30 points in seven straight games.

Phoenix has been one of the most surprising teams in the NBA this season. The Suns started the season 8-8 before turning it on to go 40-12 in their next 60 games. They have won six of their last eight games coming into Tuesday night, but they have dropped two games last week.

The red-hot Suns were hammered on the road in Atlanta on Wednesday night, and they lost to the Los Angeles Lakers, 123-110 on Sunday evening. Phoenix was a moderate favorite in Los Angeles as the Lakers were without LeBron James. However, Anthony Davis exploded for 42 points, and the Suns couldn’t keep pace despite 24 points from reserve guard Cameron Payne.

Suns vs. Warriors Head-to-Head

Mar. 4, 2021 - Suns 120 vs. Warriors 98, Phoenix -12.5, Under 220
Jan. 28, 2021 - Suns 114 vs. Warriors 93, Phoenix -2, Under 220

(SU-Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread, OU - Over-Under)

Phoenix Suns Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

Overall: 48-20 SU, 41-26-1 ATS, 39-29 OU
Road: 22-11 SU, 18-14-1 ATS, 18-15 OU

Devin Booker has continued to blossom over his six seasons in Phoenix. Booker leads the Suns with 25.5 PPG. He is making 48.5% of his field goals and 34% of his threes, but his assists have gone down with the acquisition of Chris Paul.

Paul has been the difference maker for Phoenix. The veteran guard is a certain first ballot Hall of Fame selection, and he continues to tack on solid seasons at the end of his career.

CP3 ranks second on the team with 16.2 PPG and is one of the league’s best set-up men with 8.9 APG. He leads the team with 1.4 steals a game too, and that has led to him ranking first on the Suns in PER.

Former No. 1 overall pick DeAndre Ayton is playing well too. Ayton is averaging 14.5 PPG and 10.6 RPG for the Suns with over 30% of those rebounds being offensive boards. He is hitting 62.5% of his field goals on the year, but he has been nonexistent as a scoring threat in too many games recently. Ayton has scored in the single digits in five of his last eight games.

Phoenix has one of the top offenses in the league. Although the Suns don’t get to the line often, they rank second in two-point percentage and fourth in scoring efficiency.

Golden State Warriors Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

Overall: 36-33 SU, 34-35 ATS, 28-41 OU
Home: 24-12 SU, 20-13 ATS, 15-18 OU

There is a mini game within this game as Curry is trying to win his second scoring title. He is currently 0.5 PPG ahead of Washington’s Bradley Beal in his bid to be the top scorer. Curry had made at least 40% of his threes in five straight games prior to his off night on Monday.

Poole has had a lot of looks with Kelly Oubre Jr. and Damion Lee out. Poole almost always comes off the bench, but he has taken at least six threes in all six of Golden State’s games in May. He has hit four treys in back-to-back nights, easily surpassing his 11.0 PPG average.

Another player that is seeing a lot more court time than usual is Bazemore. The veteran is averaging almost 30 MPG over Golden State’s last six games. Bazemore isn’t much of a scoring threat, but he was ready to let it fly on Monday night for the Warriors.

Golden State has been surprisingly good on defense this season. The Warriors’ defense ranks third in two-point percentage and seventh in three-point percentage. However, they have sent their opponents to the line way too often, surrendering a league worst 25.6 FTA per game.

Key Injuries

Phoenix Suns

PF Cameron Johnson: Wrist - Out
SF Abdel Nader: Knee - Out

Golden State Warriors

SF Kelly Oubre, Jr.: Wrist - Out
SG Damion Lee: Quarantine - Out
C James Wiseman: Knee - Out
PF Eric Paschall: Hip - Out