Heat vs. Bucks Predictions, Odds, Preview

May 24, 2021
by Kevin Rogers
NBA Expert

Milwaukee received a small piece of revenge on Miami after getting knocked out by the Heat in the second round of the playoffs last season with Saturday's overtime win.

The Bucks seek a 2-0 series lead on Monday night, as Milwaukee is off to a fast start after losing each of its first two playoff series openers in 2020.

Heat vs. Bucks Betting Resources

Betting Odds - Heat vs. Bucks

Line Movements

Subject to Change

  • Spread: Bucks -4.5
  • Money-Line: Milwaukee -200, Miami +175
  • Total: 222

Khris Middleton helped lead the Bucks past the Heat in overtime of Game 1 as the teams meet up again on Monday. (AP)

Heat vs. Bucks Current Form

Milwaukee held off Miami, 109-107 in overtime in Game 1 of its first round series on Saturday, but the Heat covered as 5.5-point road underdogs.

Khris Middleton drilled the game-winning jumper with less than a second remaining for Milwaukee, but overtime couldn't push the total 'over' 227.

Miami was limited to 36% shooting from the floor, as Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo combined to shoot 8-of-37, while scoring a total of 26 points.

The two players that carried Miami offensively were Duncan Robinson and Goran Dragic. Robinson sank seven three-pointers and scored 24 points, while Dragic put up 25 points, including shooting 5-of-10 from three-point range.

Middleton led the Bucks with 27 points, while two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 26 points and pulled down 18 rebounds, although the "Greek Freak" shot 10-of-27 from the field.

Milwaukee closed as three-point favorites in the first half, as the Bucks led 53-50. Miami covered in the second half (and overtime) by outscoring Milwaukee, 57-56, while getting 2.5 points.

Heat vs. Bucks Head-to-Head

  • May 21, 2021 - Bucks 109 vs. Heat 107 (OT), Miami +5.5, Under 227
  • May 15, 2021 - Bucks 122 vs. Heat 108, Milwaukee -4, Under 233.5
  • Dec. 30, 2020 - Heat 119 vs. Bucks 108, Miami +6.5, Under 228
  • Dec. 29, 2020 - Bucks 144 at Heat 97, Milwaukee -6, Over 226.5

(SU-Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread, OU - Over-Under)

Miami Heat Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

  • Overall: 40-33 SU, 35-36-2 ATS, 38-35 OU
  • Road: 19-18 SU, 20-17 ATS, 18-19 OU

Going back to last year's run to the NBA Finals, the Heat bounced back nicely off a loss by posting a 5-1 record in this situation, while going a perfect 6-0 ATS.

The 'under' in the series opener was only the second road 'under' for the Heat in the last eight games, as Miami has not seen consecutive away 'unders' since mid-April at Phoenix and Portland.

Milwaukee Bucks Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

  • Overall: 47-26 SU, 32-41 ATS, 41-31-1 OU
  • Home: 27-10 SU, 18-19 ATS, 22-15 OU

Following the non-cover in Game 1, the Bucks slipped to 1-7 ATS in the last eight games overall, including a 1-4 ATS mark at Fiserv Forum in this span.

In spite of the ATS loss, the Bucks are riding a nine-game home winning streak, which includes victories over Brooklyn twice, Philadelphia twice, Miami twice, and Washington.

Key Injuries

Miami Heat

  • SG Victor Oladipo: Knee - Out

Milwaukee Bucks

  • SF Thanasis Antetokounmpo: Knee - Out

Heat vs. Bucks Prediction

There was no threat of an 'over' in Game 1, but also that had to do with the fact that Butler, Adabayo, and Antetokounmpo were all awful from the floor.

I expect a higher-scoring contest in Game 2 and this game to eclipse the 'over.'

Score Prediction: Heat 115, Bucks 110
Best Bet: Over 222