Bucks vs. Heat Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

May 27, 2021

by Jonathan Willis
NBA Expert
VegasInsider.com

Miami is facing a must-win Game 3. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to go on and win a series, so the Heat know they have to knock off the Milwaukee Bucks in Miami on Thursday.

The Heat were run off the court by the Bucks in Game 2 after Game 1 went to overtime, so the Heat must answer the bell this time.

Bucks vs. Heat Betting Resources

Matchup: Eastern Conference Playoffs
Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
Venue: American Airlines Arena
Location: Miami, Florida
Date: Thursday, May 27, 2021
Time: 7:35 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Bet: BetMGM | betrivers |FanDuel |bet365 |DraftKings |Best Sportsbooks

Betting Odds - Bucks vs. Heat

Line Movements

Subject to Change

Spread: Bucks -1.5
Money-Line: Milwaukee -120, Miami +100
Total: 226.5

The Bucks travel to Miami owning a 2-0 lead as Milwaukee has won four of five meetings this season. (AP)

Bucks vs. Heat Current Form

Miami’s defense kept them in it for all of Game 1. Milwaukee shot just 16.1% from beyond the arc and turned the ball over 17 times. Giannis Antetokuonmpo had 26 points, but he went just 10-of-27 from the field.

Unfortunately for the Heat, their stars were even worse from the floor. Jimmy Butler went just 4-of-22 and Bam Adebayo went 4-of-15 as the duo combined for a meager 26 points.

On a positive note, Duncan Robinson went 7 of 13 from beyond the arc and Goran Dragic came off the bench to score 25 points to help force overtime.

Khris Middleton was the Game 1 hero for the Bucks. He was the most reliable scorer with a game-high 27 points, including the game-winner with a little over a second left in overtime.

Milwaukee jumped on Miami from the start in Game 2. The Bucks led the Heat, 46-20 at the end of the first quarter, cruising to a 132-98 victory to go up 2-0 in the series.

Antetokuonmpo had a great game, leading all scorers with 31 points. He still struggled from beyond the arc, but he went 12-of-23 from the floor and had 13 rebounds and six assists. The Greek Freak was more of a threat on the inside too with six offensive rebounds.

The starters didn’t see much action in the blowout as the outcome was decided pretty quickly. Middleton took just five shots and finished with 17 points, as Bryn Forbes and Pat Connaughton combined to shoot the lights out off the bench. Forbes and Connaughton combined to go 11-of-18 from beyond the arc and teamed up for 37 points.

Butler and Adebayo continued to have issues in Game 2. The two combined to score just 26 points, and Butler finished with a plus/minus of -34 in the loss. Adebayo could only grab three rebounds in 29 minutes, speaking to a big issue for Miami.

The Heat were outrebounded by 13 rebounds in Game 1, and that margin increased to a whopping 25 boards in Game 2.

Heat vs. Bucks Head-to-Head

May 24, 2021 - Bucks 132 vs. Heat 98, Milwaukee -5, Over 223.5
May 21, 2021 - Bucks 109 vs. Heat 107 (OT), Miami +5.5, Under 227
May 15, 2021 - Bucks 122 vs. Heat 108, Milwaukee -4, Under 233.5
Dec. 30, 2020 - Heat 119 vs. Bucks 108, Miami +6.5, Under 228
Dec. 29, 2020 - Bucks 144 at Heat 97, Milwaukee -6, Over 226.5

(SU-Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread, OU - Over-Under)

Milwaukee Bucks Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

Overall: 48-26 SU, 33-41 ATS, 42-31-1 OU
Home: 20-16 SU, 14-22 ATS, 18-16 OU

Antetokounmpo has made his presence felt on the inside. He is using his size and speed to get to the rim more, and he is averaging 28.5 PPG through two games.

Milwaukee is rebounding extremely well as Antetokounmpo is playing closer to the basket, and that’s needed since he continues to be a dismal three-point shooter.

We didn’t see much out of Middleton on Monday, but he didn’t need to do much in the blowout win. Middleton was able to get some rest, and he is having a strong showing in this series through two games. He is making 51.9% of his field goals against the Heat.

Jrue Holiday has struggled from beyond the arc. He is 1-9 from three-point range, but he is making over 60% of his two-point field goals to be the Bucks’ third leading scorer. Holiday is also averaging 9.0 RPG and 9.0 APG thus far, coming through in a big way to help this Milwaukee backcourt.

The unsung hero of the Bucks so far is Brook Lopez. His offensive contributions are largely nominal with 12.5 PPG and 7.0 RPG in 29 minutes, but he has been incredible on defense. Lopez has helped mitigate both Butler and Adebayo in the paint, so the Heat need to find a way to mitigate his impact.

Miami Heat Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

Overall: 40-34 SU, 35-37-2 ATS, 39-35 OU
Road: 21-15 SU, 15-19-2 ATS, 20-16 OU

Butler must get going and soon for the Heat to win this series. Butler is averaging just 13.5 PPG in his two games this series, as he has gone cold from the floor. He averaged 21.5 PPG as Miami’s best player and leading scorer during the regular season, so a lot of the pressure is on him to come through.

It hasn’t been a great postseason for Adebayo either to this point. Adebayo is averaging just 12.5 PPG in the first two games, and he hasn’t been effective as he usually is in the low post.

The All-Star is 11-of-25 from the field in his three games against the Bucks this month. Head coach Erik Spoelstra might need to make some adjustments to get Adebayo going since the Heat need his production to come back in this series.

Dragic has been the best scoring threat for the Heat in this series. The crafty veteran is averaging 21.5 PPG, but he doesn’t provide much more than scoring at this stage of his career. The same is true of Robinson, although his issues aren’t with age. Robinson is currently Miami’s second leading scorer in the postseason.

The Heat would love for Tyler Herro to get going too. Herro was one of the breakout stars of last year’s playoff run as a rookie, but he posted mediocre numbers in his second season. He has looked even worse in these playoffs, making just 20% of his shots in Game 1 and Game 2.

Key Injuries

Milwaukee Bucks

SF Thanasis Antetokounmpo: Knee - Out

Miami Heat

SG Victor Oladipo: Knee - Out