Knicks vs. Hawks Predictions, Odds, Preview

May 30, 2021
by Jonathan Willis
NBA Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Atlanta Hawks have a chance to take a commanding 3-1 series lead over the New York Knicks on Sunday afternoon. The Hawks took care of business against the Knicks on Friday night, and another win in Game 4 will put this team on the precipice of the Eastern Conference semifinals.

It’s been five years since the Hawks made it to the conference semifinals, and they are hoping to do better after being unceremoniously swept by LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. However, it won’t be easy for this team to put away the Knicks.

Knicks vs. Hawks Betting Resources

Betting Odds - Knicks vs. Hawks

Line Movements

Subject to Change

  • Spread: Hawks -4.5
  • Money-Line: Atlanta -185, New York +165
  • Total: 209.5

Julius Randle looks to improve his shooting from the floor as the Knicks battle the Hawks on Sunday. (AP)

Knicks vs. Hawks Current Form

Trae Young has been the best player on the court in all three games this series. He had 30 points in each of the first two games, but it was his passing that led to an Atlanta victory in Game 3. Young dished out 14 assists and broke down the Knicks’ defense with his vision.

The Hawks were red hot from beyond the arc on Friday night. Atlanta knocked down 16-of-27 threes (59.3%), torching the best perimeter defense in the league.

Danilo Gallinari came off the bench to sink all three of his looks, and Kevin Huerter and Bogdan Bogdanovic both went three for four from downtown.

A heroic effort from Derrick Rose wasn’t enough for the Knicks to get the win. Rose did it all with 30 points on 13 of 21 shooting and six rebounds and five assists. Unfortunately, the rest of the team combined to go 16 of 60 from the field in one of New York’s worst shooting performances of the season.

Julius Randle has had an awful series. The Knicks’ best player has recorded a double-double in each of the three games in this series, but he has yet to score more than 15 points in any game. Randle is making just 24.1% of his field goals against the Hawks, setting a dubious record in the process.

No other player with a minimum of 50 field goal attempts has shot at a worse clip than Randle in the first three games of the playoffs since the shot clock was adopted.

The only reason the Knicks were able to stay somewhat close was because of their propensity to get to the free throw line. In Game 3, New York took 30 free throws with Nerlens Noel and Randle combining to shot 20 of those freebies. Conversely, Atlanta only had eight free throw attempts on Friday night.

Hawks vs. Knicks Head-to-Head

  • May 28, 2021 - Hawks 105 vs. Knicks 94, Atlanta -4.5, Under 211.5
  • May 26, 2021 - Knicks 101 vs. Hawks 92, New York -2, Under 213.5
  • May 23, 2021 - Hawks 107 at Knicks 105, Atlanta +1, Under 214
  • Apr. 21, 2021 - Knicks 137 vs. Hawks 127 (OT), New York +1.5, Over 219
  • Feb. 15, 2021 - Knicks 123 vs. Hawks 112, New York +1.5, Over 219
  • Jan. 4, 2021 - Knicks 113 at Hawks 108, New York +7.5, Under 223.5

(SU-Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread, OU - Over-Under)

New York Knicks Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

  • Overall: 42-33 SU, 46-28-1 ATS, 32-43 OU
  • Road: 16-21 SU, 23-14 ATS, 15-22 OU

New York has to find a way to get Randle going in this series. Randle was the best player on the Knicks all year, leading the team in points, rebounds, and assists. However, he has been a non-factor in the playoffs.

The Hawks are rotating additional defenders over to him, and he has had a hard time dealing with the double teams. His struggles are all the more frustrating since he exploded for 40 points in his last two regular season games against Atlanta.

Randle isn’t the only Knicks player that is underwhelming though. R.J. Barrett has not played well either.

Barrett was the Robin to Randle’s Batman for most of the regular season, but he is now New York’s fourth leading scorer in the playoffs with 11.3 PPG. He has made just 34.2% of his field goals and 25% of his threes against the Hawks.

The top performer for the Knicks this postseason has been Rose, who is leading the Knicks with 24.3 PPG. The former NBA MVP has looked like his old self, and he is shooting at a better clip than he has his entire career.

Rose is making 51.7% of his field goals and 50% of his threes. He has played more minutes than anyone else on the team, so Tom Thibodeau and Knicks fans are hoping his knees can handle the load.

Alec Burks and Reggie Bullock are shooting at nearly identical clips. Both players are making 44% of their field goals and a third of their threes to score in double digits. A little more effectiveness could go a long way though.

Atlanta Hawks Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

  • Overall: 43-32 SU, 41-33-1 ATS, 35-40 OU
  • Home: 26-11 SU, 24-13 ATS, 16-21 OU

It’s been a great postseason for Young to this point. Young has made a name for himself as the star of the Hawks. He is averaging 27.7 PPG and 10.3 APG through the first three games against the Knicks, and he is making 48.4% of his field goals and 43.8% of his treys.

We have seen him thrive in the pick and roll against New York, as Young almost always makes the right decision with the ball.

Bogdan Bogdanovic has been the second leading scorer on the Hawks. He is averaging 17.0 PPG, but he has shot a bit worse than he did during the regular season.

Bogdanovic is making just 43.8% of his field goals and 34.6% of his threes against the Knicks. His inability to get to the line has hurt too, as Bogdanovic has yet to take a free throw.

The Hawks don’t have a reliable third scoring option. De’Andre Hunter hasn’t been playing well since returning from a knee injury at the end of the regular season, and John Collins hasn’t had much success in the postseason.

Huerter and Lou Williams are both making at least 50% of their field goals, but they haven’t taken many shots.


Key Injuries

New York Knicks

  • C Mitchell Robinson: Foot - Out

Atlanta Hawks

  • SF Cam Reddish: Achilles - Out

Knicks vs. Hawks Prediction

The Knicks will pick themselves up off the mat in Game 4. New York will find a way to get Randle going again, and the Knicks will start hitting their looks.

They have the potential to punish the Hawks in the paint with Randle and Noel.

Score Prediction: Knicks 110, Hawks 104
Best Bet: New York +4.5