Bucks vs. Hawks Predictions, Odds, Preview

July 3, 2021
by Michael Crosson
NBA Expert

The Eastern Conference Finals will resume in Milwaukee this Saturday with the Bucks and Hawks set to square off for a critical sixth matchup at 8:30 Eastern time on TNT.

Bucks vs. Hawks Betting Resources

Betting Odds - Bucks vs. Hawks

Subject to Change

  • Spread: Hawks -2
  • Money-Line: Atlanta -120, Milwaukee +100
  • Total: 216.5

After dropping Game 5 by double-digits in Milwaukee, the Hawks travel back to State Farm Arena for Game 6 as a two-point favorite over the visiting Bucks – marking the first time Atlanta has been favored since Game 4 of the opening round against New York (ATL -5).

The total for Saturday’s event is currently stationed at OU 216.5 – which is the third straight matchup in this series with a bar set below 220.

The Bucks are one victory away from reaching the NBA Finals as Milwaukee leads Atlanta, 3-2. (AP)

Bucks vs. Hawks Current Form

After a pair of grueling seven-game victories over heavily favored opponents in the previous round, Milwaukee and Atlanta surprisingly emerged from their respective Game 7’s as the final two teams standing in the Eastern playoff bracket – setting the stage for a somewhat unconventional conference finals matchup.

All that said, the oddsmakers still went all-in on Milwaukee from the jump in this year’s ECF – tagging the Bucks as eight-point favorites in Game 1 while also listing them as a -500 favorite to win the series.

That enormous wager wasn’t looking great after Game 1 too, as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday combined for an impressive 67 points on 56% shooting across the series opener – but it wasn’t quite enough to fend off Atlanta’s late-game scoring invasion propelled by Trae Young (48 points).

Milwaukee came ferociously charging back in Games 2 and 3 though, as the Bucks swiftly turned the tables on Atlanta with a pair of commanding double-digit victories in the following two matchups – leaving the Hawks in an extremely tough spot ahead of Game 4, especially with Young absent from the lineup.

Atlanta already led by double-digits when the injury occurred, but the Bucks took a devastating blow in the second half of Game 4 when Antetokounmpo suffered a worrisome knee injury that led to his exit from the event – in turn, enabling the Hawks to run away with a 22-point victory to even up this series at two games apiece.

Despite the superstar’s absence, the Bucks still rallied back with a double-digit victory at home in Game 5 though, as Brooke Lopez and Bobby Portis teamed up for 55 points on 61% shooting to fill Antetokounmpo’s void in the frontcourt during the event – handily shoving Atlanta to the brink of elimination heading into Game 6 at State Farm Arena.

Bucks vs Hawks Head-to-Head

  • Jul. 1, 2021 - Bucks 123 vs. Hawks 112, Milwaukee -4.5, Over 213
  • Jun. 29, 2021 - Hawks 110 vs. Bucks 88, Atlanta +8.5, Under 216
  • Jun. 27, 2021 - Bucks 113 at Hawks 102, Milwaukee -4.5, Under 224
  • Jun. 25, 2021 - Bucks 125 vs. Hawks 91, Milwaukee -8.5, Under 226
  • Jun. 23, 2021 - Hawks 116 at Bucks 113, Atlanta +8, Over 225
  • Apr. 21, 2021 - Hawks 111 vs. Bucks 104, Atlanta +5.5, Under 229
  • Apr. 15, 2021 - Bucks 120 at Hawks 109, Milwaukee -4, Under 236
  • Jan. 24, 2021 - Bucks 129 vs. Hawks 115, Milwaukee -12, Over 225

The Bucks won two of three matchups against the Hawks during the regular season – with Milwaukee’s pair of victories cruising over the number set for Wednesday’s opener (236.5 PPG), and Atlanta’s lone victory staying under that mark (215 points).

Make note, Young was sidelined for two of those regular-season affairs.

The matchup Trae participated in still resulted in a double-digit victory for the Bucks though, as Atlanta’s primary scoring threat posted dismal numbers from the field in his previous lone outing against Milwaukee – tallying just 15 points on 3-of-17 from the field in the loss.

(SU-Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread, OU - Over-Under)

Milwaukee Bucks Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

  • Overall: 57-31 SU, 41-47 ATS, 46-40-2 OU
  • Road: 24-20 SU, 18-26 ATS, 20-21-1 OU

Fortunately, it was reported Milwaukee’s superstar didn’t suffer any structural damage to his knee and he still could return this postseason – but the Bucks’ worst nightmare painfully came to fruition in Game 4 this past Tuesday, as Antetokounmpo got tangled up with Clint Capela on a lob attempt in the second half and was forced to make an early exit from the contest.

After taking care of business at home in Game 5 though, the Bucks (-435) have reemerged as heavy favorites to punch a ticket to this year’s NBA Finals – while also getting bumped up to narrow underdogs (+180) against Phoenix (-175) to win it.

Atlanta Hawks Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

  • Overall: 51-38 SU, 49-39-1 ATS, 40-49 OU
  • Home: 29-14 SU, 27-16 ATS, 18-25 OU

Despite knocking off the top-seeded Sixers in the previous round, Atlanta (+375) still entered this year’s Eastern Conference Finals as heavy underdogs against the Bucks (-500).

Those prices were both briefly chopped in half following the Hawks’ thrilling win in Game 1 at Fiserv Forum (-200/+170) – but after rumbling back with two straight double-digit victories in Games 2 and 3, the Bucks (-2000) quickly returned to their pedestal of heavy favorites over Atlanta (+900).

The vagueness surrounding Antetokounmpo and Young’s respective injuries moderately shortened up those prices – but even with Trae expected to participate in Saturday’s affair, the Hawks (+320) still enter Game 6 as hefty underdogs to make it out of the series.

Key Injuries

Milwaukee Bucks

  • SF Giannis Antetokounmpo: Knee - Doubtful
  • SG Donte DiVincenzo: Foot - Out

Atlanta Hawks

  • PG Trae Young: Ankle - Questionable
  • PF De'Andre Hunter: Knee - Out
  • PG Brandon Goodwin: Illness - Out

Bucks vs. Hawks Player Prop Best Bet

Bogdan Bogdanovic – To Score 20+ Points (+140)

After averaging 6.7 points on 5.3 field-goal attempts in the first three matchups of this series, Bogdan Bogdanovic has admirably filled the role of Atlanta’s primary scoring threat during Young’s latest absence (foot) – racking up an average of 24 points on 15 shot attempts across Games 4 and 5 against Milwaukee.

I’ll back Bogdanovic to keep it going here – as even if Trae suits up for Game 6, I still expect Bogdanovic to play a crucial role in the Hawks’ offensive attack.

Bucks vs. Hawks Prediction

After dropping Game 5 by double-digits in Milwaukee, the Hawks travel back to State Farm Arena for the sixth matchup of this series as a two-point favorite over the visiting Bucks – marking the first time Atlanta has been favored since Game 4 of the opening round against New York (ATL -5).

I’ll take the points with the Bucks here – as even if Young ends up making a hobbled return for Saturday’s matchup, I still think Milwaukee has a decent shot at closing out this series on the road in Game 6.

Score Prediction: Bucks 112, Hawks 106
Best Bet: Milwaukee +2