Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat Predictions, Odds, Picks

Dec. 8, 2021
Eytan Shander
VI Betting Expert

The slow start is a distant memory for Milwaukee as the Bucks are on a tear, winning ten of their last eleven games. It’s a little different for Miami, who will be without Jimmy Butler, and already down Bam Adebayo. The two teams tip off in Miami at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Score Prediction

Bucks 114, Heat 99

Best Bets

Bucks -5.5 (-110) at FanDuel

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat Predictions

Miami is down two of their top three scorers combining for over 40 points a game. It’s not going to be easy to outscore anyone – let alone a healthy Bucks team. Giannis Antetokoumpodid just enough on Monday night as the Bucks won again, but more importantly his supporting cast is back.

Without Butler, the Heat stand little chance of defending Khris Middletonand perimeter shooters like Pat Connaughton. Jrue Holiday is back to leading the team in assists, a hard matchup for Kyle Lowry to cover and keep up from an offensive production standpoint. Miami built a rep early on for playing hard defense, but two of their top defenders will sit Wednesday night.

The big three for the Bucks should cruise in this game as the Heat are so limited on both ends of the floor. Dwayne Dedmon and PJ Tucker can only do so much from a defensive standpoint without the help of Bam and Butler. There’s also too much offensive pressure put on guys likeDuncan Robinson and Tyler Herro to carry the void of over 40 points missing in action. The Heat are far from lost as a team without Bam and Jimmy, but they certainly don’t have enough on other side of the floor to beat a healthy Bucks team.

The Bucks have won ten of eleven. That’s pretty much their recent stretch in a nutshell. They have dominated and snuck by, depending on the team and circumstance, but bottom line is they are winning games.

The Bucks dealt with a stretch of all three of their stars dealing with injury or covid in some capacity. Things have clearly returned to normal as even Giannis came back on Monday from a calf injury. They get shots up from behind the arc, they rebound, and have scoring depth down low from Bobby Portis.

Miami is just playing down, already missing Victor Oladipo and Markieff Morris, now add Bam and Butler. The team is one of the best defensive squads in the NBA and has a couple of dangerous stars, but they are both hurt. Miami is still the 5th best scoring defense in the NBA, but only recently is Butler missing time, and Bam was playing at an elite level before he got hurt. The Heat have dropped six of ten, including two straight.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Central vs. Southeast
  • Date: Wednesday, December 8, 2021
  • Venue: FTX Arena
  • Location: Miami, Florida
  • TV-Time: ESPN - 7:30 p.m. ET

Milwaukee Bucks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 16-9
  • ATS: 11-14
  • O/U: 10-15

Giannis leads the way with 27.6 PPG, 11.8 RPG, and 5.8 APG. He’s shooting 53 percent from the field. Middleton is the second-leading scorer with 17.9 PPG. Holiday missed time but is at 15.5 PPG on 45 percent shooting, adding 6.2 APG. Grayson Allen, Portis, and Connaughton are the last three Bucks averaging double-figures.

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 14-11
  • ATS: 14-11
  • O/U: 15-10

Butler leads the Heat with 22.8 PPG, and adds 5.8 RPG and 5.2 APG. He’s shooting 50.9 percent from the field. Herro is also above 20PPG, adding 5.5 RPG and shooting just under 48 percent. Bam was averaging 18.7 PPG and 10.2 RPG before going down. Lowry adds 13 PPG and 7.6 APG. Robinson is the only other Heat player to score in double-figures, averaging 10.9 PPG.

Milwaukee has won 11 straight games when playing as the favorite. (AP)

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat Head-to-Head

This will be the third meeting between the two teams. The Heat won their season opener over the Bucks 137-95, only to be run off the floor on Saturday 124-102 by the Bucks.

Key Players to Watch

  • MIL: Giannis Antetokounmpo - F (27.6 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 5.8 apg)
  • MIL: Khris Middleton - F (17.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 5.1 apg)
  • MIA: Tyler Herro - G (21.4 ppg, 5.5 rpg)
  • MIA: Duncan Robinson - G (10.9 ppg)

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat Betting Conclusion

This is one of those games that will go counter to the trends simply because of who is available. This means that no matter how many trends tell you to take Miami - Bucks are just 6-9 ATS after a win and the Heat are 6-4 ATS at home – that won’t overcome the absence of both Butler and Adebayo.

The Bucks may have been victim of covering bigger lines, but Miami is still talented enough to keep the line relatively close, it’s their lack of scoring power that will be Miami’s undoing.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat Betting Trends

  • Milwaukee has won 11 straight games when playing as the favorite.
  • Milwaukee has gone OVER the point total in five of its last six games.
  • Miami has covered the spread in six of its last seven games when playing as the underdog.