Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions, Odds, Picks

Kevin Rogers Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Jan. 3, 2022

Michael Crosson
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

Nationally televised NBA coverage will conclude on Monday night with a heavyweight non-conference bout between the Miami Heat and Golden State Warriors. Coverage begins from Chase Center at 10:00 p.m. ET on NBA TV.

Score Prediction

Warriors 115, Heat 107

Best Bets

Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions

After finishing ninth in the West with a record of 39-33 SU last year, Golden State stormed out to a triumphant start to the season, as the Warriors cruised into December boasting impressive records of 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS – with 14 of those victories coming by a double-digit margin.

The last few weeks have been relatively shaky for the Warriors though, considering Golden State is just 10-5 SU and 7-7-1 ATS across the last 15 games – despite getting tagged as favorites in 12 of those contests.

On the other hand, Miami also jumped out to a solid start to the new season, as the Heat kicked things off 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS across their first 16 games – with nine of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.

After a brief nine-game lull to open December though (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS), Miami seemingly steered itself right back on track, considering the Heat are 9-2 SU and 6-5 ATS across the last 11 games – which includes tough upset victories over the Bucks, Bulls, and Sixers.

I’ll lay the points with Golden State here, as Miami racked up a lofty average of 114.4 PPG across their current five-game winning streak – and I doubt they’ll find that same level of success against a Warriors squad that ranks 1st in defensive efficiency and 2nd in opponent effective field-goal percentage (0.094 DE, 49.5% EFG).

Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Odds

More Odds | Futures Odds

Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Resources

• Matchup: Southeast vs. Pacific
• Date: Monday, January 3, 2022
• Venue: Chase Center
• Location: San Francisco, California
• TV-Time: NBATV - 10:00 p.m. ET

• Injury Report

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 23-13
• ATS: 20-16
• O/U: 21-15

After finishing sixth in the East with a record of 40-32 SU last year, the Heat made some dramatic offseason changes to better suit their needs at the offensive end, as Miami shipped Goran Dragic and Precious Achiuwa to Toronto in exchange for All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry through a blockbuster deal.

At first, the acquisition worked out flawlessly for Miami, as the Heat kicked things off with a solid 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS run – with their only ATS losses coming in tough matchups against the Pacers, Lakers, Nuggets, and Celtics.

The depth that Miami sacrificed in order to acquire Lowry was temporarily exposed towards the end of November though, as rotating health and safety concerns spiraled Miami into a brief 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS skid – but depth hasn’t been much of an issue recently, despite 12 players currently carrying a designation on the Heat’s injury report.

Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 28-7
• ATS: 22-11-2
• O/U: 11-22-2

After last year’s pedestrian 39-33 SU regular-season showing, Golden State jumped out to a surprisingly strong start to the new season, as the Warriors opened with wins in 18-of-20 games – with their only two losses across that span coming by slim margins of four points or less.

Golden State has been slightly less dominant across its latest stretch, as the Warriors enter Monday’s contest just 10-5 SU and 7-7-1 ATS in their last 15 games. The Warriors’ magic seemingly returned over the holidays though, highlighted by Golden State’s impressive victories over the Jazz, Suns, and Grizzlies across their latest four-game window.

(AP)

Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors Head-to-Head

The Heat and Warriors split a two-game regular-season set last year, with each team claiming a victory on its respective home floor – and both matchups cruising over the total set for Monday’s affair at a lofty average of 228.5 PPG.

Key Players to Watch

• MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (23.3 PPG, 5.9 REB, 5.5 AST)
• MIA: Tyler Herro - SG (20.4 PPG, 5 REB, 4 AST)
• GSW: Steph Curry - PG (27.7 PPG, 5.3 REB, 6 AST)
• GSW: Andrew Wiggins - SF (19 PPG, 4.5 REB, 1.8 AST)

Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Conclusion

After posting an impressive victory over Utah on New Year’s Day (W, 123-116), the Warriors enter Monday’s contest as moderate home favorites over the visiting Heat – marking the first time Miami has been an underdog across the last six games.

I’ll lay the points with Golden State here, as the Warriors have played excellent since Christmas time, sitting at 4-1 SU and ATS across their last five games, which includes tough road victories over the Suns and Jazz – while the Heat have also played well recently, but Miami’s five-game winning streak consists of relatively humdrum victories over the Rockets, Magic, Pistons, Wizards, and Pacers.

Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Trends

• TBD

Kevin Rogers

Kevin has been handicapping professionally since 2007 at VegasInsider before shifting to ScoresAndOdds. He focuses on MLB, NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, and NHL and mainly uses trends, systems, and situations as his top handicapping angles. More from Kevin Rogers