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NBA

Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks Predictions, Picks, Odds

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read

Regular-season NBA action will resume on Wednesday night with a heavyweight Eastern Conference bout between the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks. Coverage begins from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee at 8:00 p.m. ET.

Score Prediction

Heat 116, Bucks 114

Best Bets

Heat +5.5 (-110) at DraftKings

Heat vs. Bucks Predictions

After finishing sixth in the East with a record of 40-32 SU last year, Miami bounced back with an excellent start to this season, as the Heat opened with a sturdy 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch – with nine of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Aside from a brief nine-game lull in December though (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS), Miami has kept that same ball rolling all the way into March too, considering the Heat enter Wednesday riding an impressive 27-10 SU and 21-15-1 ATS stretch– despite getting tagged as underdogs in 12 of those contests.

On the other hand, Milwaukee stumbled out to a surprisingly slow start to the season, as the Bucks kicked things off with a lackluster 6-8 SU and ATS skid – with four of those SU losses coming in matchups they were favored in.

The Bucks have quietly dominated since their opening skid though, considering Milwaukee enters Wednesday riding a sturdy 31-17 SU run, with 24 of those victories coming by eight points or more – despite sitting 21-27 ATS across that same window.

I’ll back Miami here, as the Heat are 9-1 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in their last ten games, while scoring 113.4 OPPG and allowing 103.1 DPPG during that timeframe – likely serving as a difficult task for a Bucks squad that’s allowing 121.2 DPPG across their latest 2-4 SU skid.

Heat vs. Bucks Betting Odds

Heat vs. Bucks Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Southeast vs. Central
  • Date: Wednesday, March 2, 2022
  • Venue: Fiserv Forum
  • Location: Milwaukee, WI
  • TV-Time: NBA League Pass - 8:00 p.m. ET
  • Injury Report

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

  • SU: 41-21
  • ATS: 35-26-1
  • O/U: 37-25

After last year’s relatively lackluster 40-32 SU showing, the Heat also made some aggressive offseason moves to better suit their needs at the offensive end – primarily highlighted by the acquisition of six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry.

The move worked perfectly to start, as Miami kicked off the year with an impressive 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with the Heat’s only ATS loses across that span coming in tough matchups against the Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, and Celtics.

The depth that Miami sacrificed in order to acquire Lowry was briefly exposed in November though, considering a revolving door of health and safety concerns spiraled Miami into a frustrating 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS skid – but depth certainly hasn’t been an issue as of late, considering the Heat sit 27-10 SU across their last 37 games.

Milwaukee Bucks Betting Analysis

  • SU: 37-25
  • ATS: 27-35
  • O/U: 31-31

After finishing with the best record in the East in two of the last three regular seasons, Milwaukee’s rough start was a bit of a head-scratcher, as the Bucks’ compiled a record of 162-65 SU across the previous three seasons – and then opened this season just 6-8 SU.

Milwaukee has played solid basketball, when healthy, since mid-November though, considering the Bucks enter Wednesday riding a sturdy 31-17 SU run – with a decent chunk of those losses coming in the absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo (5). 

The Heat are 9-1 SU in their last ten games. (AP)

Heat vs. Bucks Head-to-Head

The Bucks won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Miami last year, with the first contest soaring over the total at a score of 144-97 – while the ensuing two events stayed just under with an average of 228.5 PPG. These teams also met up in the opening round of last year’s playoffs, which resulted in a clean four-game sweep for Milwaukee. The Heat bounced back with a 2-1 SU tally against Milwaukee this season though, with all three matchups getting decided by wide margins of nine points or more.

Key Players to Watch

  • MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (21.7 PPG, 6.3 REB, 5.8 AST)
  • MIA: Tyler Herro - SG (20.2 PPG, 4.8 REB, 3.9 AST)
  • MIL: Giannis Antetokounmpo - PF (29.4 PPG, 11.4 REB, 6 AST)
  • MIL: Khris Middleton - SG (19.5 PPG, 5.4 REB, 5.3 AST)

Heat vs. Bucks Betting Conclusion

After extending their win streak to four games with a victory over the Bulls on Monday night (W, 112-99), the Heat hit the road for Wednesday’s contest as short underdogs against the Bucks at Fiserv Forum – marking the 15th straight home game Milwaukee has been favored in.

I’ll back Miami here, as the Bucks enter Wednesday riding a bumpy 12-12 SU and 9-15 ATS stretch, while surrendering an average of 113.9 DPPG to opponents across that window – setting the stage for a tough matchup against a Heat squad that’s allowed 107 PTS or less in eight of their last ten games (103.1 DPPG).

Heat vs. Bucks Betting Trends

  • The Heat are 9-1 SU in their last ten games.
  • The Bucks are 4-2 ATS in their last six matchups against Miami.
  • The Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the last six matchups between Miami and Milwaukee.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the last nine Bucks' games.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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