Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat Picks, Predictions, Odds

Regular season NBA action resumes on Saturday night with a meaningful non-conference clash between the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat. Coverage begins from Miami-Dade Arena in South Florida at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV.

The Mavericks are 4-1 SU in their last five matchups against Miami. (Getty)


For a little while, the general public seemed to accept the Mavericks’ struggles as growing pains associated with the acquisition of another big time star in Kyrie Irving, along with some newfound issues in regards to depth and defense, but at this point, I think it’s fair to say that their’ problems are much bigger than originally anticipated.

The future didn’t always look so dark and gloomy for the Dallas’ squad, though. Prior to the acquisition of Irving, the Mavericks owned a solid record of 29-26 on the year, which was a little bit underwhelming for a team that participated in last year’s Western Conference Finals, but it was much better than the position they’re in now.

The Mavericks have posted a head-scratching record of 8-14 in their 22 games since trading for Kyrie, which primarily stems from a huge downtick at the defensive end during that timeframe, ranked just 25th in the league in defensive rating across that window (117.8 DRtg), and now, they sit on the outside-looking-in of the Play-In Tournament in the West.

Will Dallas be able to string together a few wins down the stretch and sneak into the playoffs? Only time will tell, but rest assured, they’ll have a decent shot at getting back over the hump against a skidding Heat’ squad on Saturday night.

Unlike Dallas, the Heat have their postseason spot locked up already, currently stationed 7th in the Eastern Conference standings with a record of 40-37, which paces the 11th-placed Wizards by 5.5 games, making it tough to imagine a scenario in which Miami misses both the Playoffs and Play-In Tournament with just a handful of games left to play.

However, if the season was just a little bit longer, Miami’s playoff hopes might be in jeopardy at the moment, considering the Heat have posted a lackluster record of 8-12 since February 12th, and it doesn’t look like they intend on turning the ship around anytime soon, entering Saturday following losses in three straight.

Over the last few years, the pride and joy of this Heat’ squad has been their defense, having ranked Top 10 in the league in defensive rating in each of the last three seasons, and quite frankly, they’ve stunk at the defensive end as of late, ranking just 26th in defensive rating across their last 20 games (119.3 DRtg).

All things considered, both of these squads have played awful down the stretch, but push comes to shove, the Heat have been much worse at both ends of the floor, ranked 26th in the league in net rating since the All-Star Break, as opposed to Dallas ranking 18th. So, in Saturday’s matchup in which something has to give, I’ll back the desperate Mavs’ to handle business on the road in this one.

Score Prediction: Mavericks 116, Heat 109
Best Bet: Mavericks ML (+110)

Mavericks/Heat Video Best Bet



Date: Saturday, April 1, 2023
Venue: Miami-Dade Arena
Location: Miami, Florida
TV-Time: NBA TV, 7:30 p.m. ET
Expert Picks

NBA Finals Betting Odds


Dallas Mavericks
SU: 37-40
ATS: 30-46-1
O/U: 39-37-1
PPG: 113.8
OPPG: 113.3

Miami Heat
SU: 40-37
ATS: 29-48
O/U: 36-41
PPG: 108.7
OPPG: 109.8

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

The Heat are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games. (Getty)
Updated on 06/02/2023
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  • The total has gone UNDER in six of Dallas' last seven games.
  • The Mavs are 1-5 SU in their last six games.
  • Dallas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Miami.
  • The Heat are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of Miami's last six games.
  • The Heat are 2-4 SU in their last six games.
  • The total has gone OVER in five straight Heat' home games.
  • The Mavs are 4-1 SU in their last five matchups against Miami.
  • The Mavs are 3-8 SU in their last 11 road games against Miami.