The Odds of Black Friday Regret, Ranked by State

Black Friday delivers excitement, adrenaline, and massive spending surges comparable to a big NFL game. However, for many shoppers, regret soon follows. More than half of Black Friday shoppers say they end up regretting at least one purchase.

Here at Vegas Insider, we like odds. It got us thinking, what are a shopper’s odds of shopping regret? Where are shoppers most likely to experience Black Friday regret? 

To turn regret into odds based data, we used Google Trends data across major retailers to find which U.S. states were actively seeking information on returns following Black Friday.

Key Findings

• California leads the nation in regret likelihood (68.06%), driven by consistently high return-related search activity across nearly all major retailers.
• Hawaii and Illinois tie for second place (62.36%), showing strong return interest for Amazon, Walmart, and Best Buy.
• New Jersey and Texas round out the top five, each showing elevated return-search behavior across department stores and big-box retailers.
• Amazon-related return searches heavily influence regret rankings, with Washington- Amazon’s home state- ranking ninth due to exceptionally high demand for Amazon return info.

The States That Regret Black Friday The Most

‘Likelihood’ shows how often each state searches for return information compared with others, averaged across all retailers and expressed as a probability.

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1. California

Implied probability: 68.06%

California claims the #1 spot with consistently high return-search interest across nearly every major retailer. With massive population density and some of the highest shopping activity in the country, it also leads the nation in potential post–Black Friday dissatisfaction.

2. Hawaii (tie)

Implied probability: 62.36%

Hawaii shows extremely high search interest for returns across Amazon, Walmart, and Best Buy. High shipping costs and limited in-person retail could contribute to buyer’s remorse.

2. Illinois (tie)

Implied probability: 62.36%

Illinois ties Hawaii with broad return-related search activity affecting Amazon, Walmart, and Kohl’s shoppers. Chicago’s dense retail landscape drives high shopping volume- and high regret.

4. New Jersey

Implied probability: 58.17%

New Jersey ranks near the top for Macy’s and Amazon return searches, suggesting brand-specific pain points across major department and ecommerce channels.

5. Texas

Implied probability: 56.65%

Texas combines massive retail participation with spikes in Amazon and Best Buy return queries. Despite strong consumer spending, regret signals run high across the state.

6. Maryland

Implied probability: 56.27%

Maryland’s regret score is driven by heavy activity around Amazon and Macy’s returns. Suburban and high-income communities contribute to elevated return interest.

7. Utah

Implied probability: 54.37%

Utah has high return-search- led by Walmart, Amazon, and Best Buy. Utah stands out as a Western hotspot for Black Friday buyers remorse.

8. Arizona

Implied probability: 53.61%

Arizonans search heavily for returns at Best Buy, Home Depot, and Walmart, suggesting electronics and home goods are the main sources of regret.

9. Washington

Implied probability: 53.23%

With the strongest Amazon return-search activity of any state, Washington (Amazon’s home turf) shows elevated regret in ecommerce-driven purchases.

10. Florida (tie)

Implied probability: 52.09%

Florida’s return searches spike for Best Buy, Costco, and Walmart, indicating strong regret patterns in electronics and big-box buys.

10. Missouri (tie)

Implied probability: 52.09%

Missouri rounds out the top 10 with steady return interest across most retailers, especially Macy’s and Lowe’s.

Closing Thoughts: What the Data Really Shows

Black Friday brings excitement, but the days after reveal a different trend: shoppers across the country quickly start searching for ways to return what they bought.

These regret odds highlight where that post-sale second-guessing is strongest. States with high shopping volume, heavy ecommerce use, or limited in-person retail tend to show the biggest spikes in return-related searches.

While the odds are all in good fun, they reflect a real pattern in how Americans shop once the deals fade. From California to Missouri, regret isn’t rare- it’s part of the Black Friday cycle.

Methodology

To identify where Black Friday regret and return-related behavior are most prevalent, we analyzed Google Trends data for U.S. states (excluding Maine, Vermont, South Dakota and Wyoming due to insufficient data)  using search queries associated with product returns across major national retailers.

The retailers included in the analysis were: Walmart, Target, Amazon, Macy’s, Kohl’s, Home Depot, Best Buy, Costco, and Lowe’s.

States were ranked from 1 (highest interest) to 50 (lowest interest) for each retailer. States with insufficient search activity for a retailer (often represented as “0” in the dataset) were ranked at the bottom of that retailer’s list. From there the totals were averaged together to produce the states with the most (and least) Black Friday regret.

You can see the full dataset here.

Sources

• Google Trends: Used for collecting state-level search interest for return-related queries for each retailer.
• CHOICE: Black Friday shopping habits and behaviors, used as baseline in study.

Black Friday Regret By State, Most Likely To Least Likely