Eagles vs Chiefs Prediction, Picks, Odds | Monday Night Football Week 11

Week 11 of the NFL regular season concludes with a highly anticipated Super Bowl rematch between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Coverage begins from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC.

Here's everything you need to know about the Eagles vs. Chiefs Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Monday Night Football Week 11.

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Eagles vs Chiefs Prediction, Picks & Betting Odds for Monday Night Football Week 11

Matchup Spread Total Moneyline
Chiefs vs
-2.5 (-120)
+2.5 (-102)
o45.5 (-114)
u45.5 (-106)

For a variety of reasons, this has the makings of the most compelling primetime matchup of the season thus far, and believe it or not, that claim to fame has nothing to do with the presence of Taylor Swift. The Eagles and Chiefs are set to square off in a rematch of Super Bowl LVII on Monday night: a date that has been circled on the Birds’ calendar for quite some time after losing a heartbreaker to Kansas City by a score of 38-35 in last year’s title game. 

On top of that, this matchup also contains the widely beloved Kelce sibling rivalry, the top two finishers in last year’s MVP voting (Mahomes and Hurts), and of course, another grudge match for Chiefs head coach Andy Reid as he hosts his former team for the fifth time since his departure from Philly. But above all, I believe there’s some really solid betting value on the road dogs in this contest, and the vast majority of bettors seem to agree.

According to VegasInsider’s Patrick Everson, PointsBet has toggled the spread for this matchup between the opening line of Chiefs -2.5 to -3 several times throughout the week. But the bulk of the early action poured in on the Eagles, with the book taking ratios of 3-to-1 tickets and 5-to-1 money on Philly as of Wednesday afternoon.

Historically speaking, this should be a great spot to back Kansas City. According to Action Network’s Evan Abrams, the Chiefs are 33-10 SU and 25-17-1 ATS in 43 primetime games with Mahomes under center. He is also 20-6-1 ATS in matchups as a favorite of three points or less (or underdog), as opposed to 35-40-1 ATS as a favorite of more than three points. And since 2019, Andy Reid owns a record of 21-4 SU when his team is coming off 8+ days of rest.

That said, Kansas City is playing a very different brand of football compared to previous years. So, I’m choosing to discard the historical trends when it comes to this matchup. Prior to this season, the Chiefs offense ranked Top 6 in scoring and total yardage in five straight campaigns, while on the flip side, their defense ranked outside of the Top 6 in scoring every year during that span – and outside of the Top 10 on three occasions.

This year, however, the tables have been turned in Kansas City. The Chiefs offense enters the week ranked 13th in scoring and 8th in total yardage, but fortunately, their steep regression on the offensive side of the ball has been masked by their top-ranked scoring defense carrying them to a relatively normal level of success with a record of 7-2.

Well, news flash: the Chiefs have scored 21 points or less in over half of their games this season (5), and quite frankly, the only reason their offense has avoided falling to the bottom half of the league in scoring is because they ran up the score in double-digit victories over the Bears and Chargers with performances of 41 and 31 points. 

This is a high quality primetime matchup, regardless of Kansas City’s offensive woes. But push comes to shove, the ideal path to beating this Philly team is to put pressure on their defense and outduel them in a shootout like the Chiefs did in last year’s Super Bowl – and based on what we’ve seen from KC recently, I simply don’t think they have enough juice to live up to the task against the Eagles 3rd ranked scoring defense. 

Philly’s offense has scored 25+ points in seven of nine games this season, and 23+ in eight of nine. I think the Eagles are destined to claim their revenge here. Give me the road dog on Monday night.

Score Prediction: Eagles 23, Chiefs 20
Best Bet: Eagles +3 (-120)

PHI @ KC Odds

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Eagles vs Chiefs Betting Resources

Date: Monday, November 20, 2023
Matchup: NFC East vs. AFC West
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Location: Kansas City, Missouri
Time-TV: ABC, 8:15 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 11 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

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Philadelphia Eagles Betting Analysis

Jalen Hurts re-aggravated a knee injury toward the end of the Eagles’ 28-23 victory over Dallas prior to their bye week, which has naturally led to some speculation regarding his ability / willingness to run the ball in Monday night’s contest.

However, the almighty Tush Push is a crucial part of Philly’s offensive strategy, and quite frankly, I believe the Eagles would elect to keep Hurts sidelined for this contest if he wasn’t healthy enough to run their trademark QB sneak at the goal line. Hurts has scored a rushing touchdown in four of the Eagles’ last five games, and he’s found the endzone in six of nine contests this season overall. Regardless of your stance on the Brotherly Shove, it’s tough to deny the value of a Hurts anytime TD ticket at plus money.

The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five matchups against Philly. (Getty)

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis

I certainly don’t blame Mahomes for the Chiefs’ lackluster offensive production. But the fact of the matter is, Kansas City’s pass catchers have consistently struggled to get open all season (except Kelce). So, as a result, Mahomes has become impatient, and he’s forcing a ton of bad throws downfield.

The Mahomes-Kelce combo doesn’t single-handedly equate to an elite aerial attack. The Chiefs offense can still be good, but as they’ve quickly learned, it’s tough to be great with just one trick up your sleeve. In order to move the ball consistently against top shelf defensive units like Philly, somebody else needs to make a few big plays.

Kelce leads the Chiefs in receptions by a distant margin with 57 catches on the season, despite playing in only eight of nine games. Rashee Rice comfortably ranks 2nd in the pecking order with 32 receptions, followed by Isiah Pacheco at 24, Kadarius Toney at 20, and then Noah Gray at 18. It hasn’t quite caught up with them yet, but matchups like this is when the Chiefs could really use an elite perimeter threat like Tyreek Hill.

Eagles vs Chiefs Betting Trends

  • The Eagles are 8-1 SU in their last nine games.
  • The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against Kansas City.
  • The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five straight Chiefs' games.
  • The Chiefs are 15-2 SU in their last 17 games.
  • The Eagles are 1-4 SU in their last five games against Kansas City.
  • The Eagles are 11-2 SU in their last 13 road games.

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