2026 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick Odds: Mendoza Leads the Way

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

9 minute read

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While the college football season sunsets, the football world turns it's head to the NFL Draft. The Las Vegas Raiders currently have the #1 overall pick, and the New York Jets are picking at #2. Who will be tabbed with the #1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Here is the latest.

In addition to the #1 pick, the Las Vegas Raiders are also looking for a new head coach after firing Pete Carroll. Check out the latest Raiders head coach odds.

Here is the current breakdown of the favorites, the long shots, and how the betting lines are shifting as we head toward April.

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2026 NFL Draft Number 1 Pick Odds: The Favorites

The market has seen a massive shakeup recently. While names like Arch Manning dominated the early conversation, a new favorite has emerged from an unlikely place.

The Frontrunner: Fernando Mendoza

Mendoza is the biggest story in college football. After leading Indiana to a historic undefeated season and snagging the Heisman, he has become the favorite for the #1 overall pick. With the Las Vegas Raiders currently holding the top spot, a franchise-changing QB like Mendoza is the logical choice. Fernando Mendoza will be taking on the 2nd favorite in the Peach Bowl.

The Challenger: Dante Moore

If you aren't sold on Mendoza, Moore is the high-ceiling alternative. He has been electric for Oregon, and while Mendoza is seen as "NFL-ready," many scouts believe Moore has the higher physical upside.

Betting Value: Can a Non-QB Go Number 1?

History tells us QBs almost always go first, but if the Raiders decide to stick with their current room or trade the pick to a team that doesn't need a signal-caller, the odds for defensive stars become very attractive.

• T.J. Parker: Parker is a defensive end for the Clemson Tigers. He tallied 37 total tackles this season, 18 of those being solo and 5 sacks. Clemson underperformed this season, but traders seem to believe that Parker has a slight chance to be taken #1 overall.
• Arvell Reese: A bit of a wildcard depending on how teams scout his position. He’s played both linebacker and edge at Ohio State, but his freakish athleticism makes him a candidate for a massive combine rise.

Why the Odds Are Shifting

The NFL draft number 1 pick odds aren't just about talent; they're about team needs. Right now, the bottom of the NFL standings looks like this:

1. Las Vegas Raiders (Heavy QB need)
2. New York Jets (Likely QB need)
3. Arizona Cardinals (Potential to trade out)
4. Tennessee Titans (Flexible)

Because the Raiders and Jets are sitting at the top, the odds are heavily weighted toward quarterbacks. If a team like the Cardinals moves into the #1 slot, expect Mendoza's odds to lengthen and defensive players to see their prices drop.

What to Watch Next

The College Football Playoff is the final "audition" for these guys. A bad performance from Mendoza in a high pressure spot could be the only thing that opens the door for Dante Moore or a defensive star to leapfrog him. The two draft favorites will face off in the Peach Bowl.

Wondering how contract prices convert to betting odds? Check out our prediction market odds calculator and our list of the best prediction market apps.

Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 5 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson