NFL Week 15 Predictions: The Week of the Underdog

NFL Week 15 Predictions: The Week of the Underdog

Image Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Here are my NFL Week 15 predictions, included a pick for Thursday Night Football and Sunday Night Football.

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COMMANDERS VS. GIANTS PREDICTION

WAS @ NYG Odds

The Giants play fast, averaging over 70.5 offensive snaps per game. Both teams have pass-heavy tendencies, with the Giants passing the ball on nearly 60% of snaps, and Washington passing the ball on 61.3% of snaps.

These are two of the worst defenses in professional football, ranking 30th and 31st in defensive EPA allowed. The only defense statistically worse is the Cincinnati Bengals. Both of these teams rank at the bottom of Action Network's luck rankings, indicating that positive regression could be due, resulting in a plethora of points.

Prediction: Washington Commanders @ New York Giants o47.5 (-104)

BILLS VS. PATRIOTS PREDICTION

BUF @ NE Odds

The Patriots come in at 4th in Action Network's luck rankings, and the Bills come in at 11th. This indicates that some scoring regression may be inbound for this matchup. These are also two good defenses. The Patriots rank 9th in EPA/play allowed, while the Bills rank 16th.

Both units are strong defending against the pass, as the Bills and Patriots are both top 10 in EPA/pass attempt allowed. I expect a low-scoring affair in this AFC East matchup.

Check out my complete Bills vs. Patriots prediction.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots u50.5 (-110)

RAMS VS. LIONS PREDICTION

DET @ LA Odds

The Rams have an offensive edge in this matchup, just barely beating the Lions in both rush and dropback EPA. When you compare these two teams on defense, it is not as close. The Rams rank 2nd in dropback EPA allowed and 3rd in rush EPA allowed.

The Lions find themselves in the middle of the pack in terms of defense, so the advantage is clear. The Rams should strengthen their grip here on the NFC.

Check out my full Rams vs. Lions prediction.

Prediction: Los Angeles Rams -5.5 (-110)

VIKINGS VS. COWBOYS PREDICTION

MIN @ DAL Odds

J.J. McCarthy believers may officially be vindicated. Sure, the Vikings scored 31 points against one of the worst defenses in professional football (the Commanders), but the Cowboys defense doesn't separate themselves much from the Commanders. The Cowboys' rush defense is actually worse than the Commanders', setting up for Vikings domination on the ground.

I believe this Vikings offense has found its footing and they make a statement in this Sunday Night Football matchup.

Check out my full Vikings vs. Cowboys prediction.

Prediction: Minnesota Vikings +6.5 (-118)

FALCONS VS. BUCCANEERS PREDICTION

ATL @ TB Odds

I still think the Bucs are overvalued in the market, as shown with this line. Baker Mayfield is banged up, and he has performed a far cry from the beginning of the season when he was leading the Bucs down the field for a game-winning drive every week. Do I think the Falcons are any good? No. However, it is tough to find any reason to justify the Bucs being a visiting divisional favorite late in the season, especially by more than a field goal.

Action Network has the Bucs as one one of the luckiest teams in the NFL (6th), while the Falcons rank 30th. I will take the Falcons in this primetime matchup.

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons +4.5 (-110)

RAVENS VS. BENGALS PREDICTION

BAL @ CIN Odds

The Bengals have one of the worst defenses in professional football, ranking 31st in EPA/dropback allowed and 29th in EPA/dropback allowed. This seems like the perfect opportunity for Lamar Jackson and this Ravens offense to get back on track.

The Ravens defense has taken a huge step up since Week 10, coming in as the top rush defense in the NFL. They still rank in the middle of the pack in EPA/dropback allowed, but this is still quite a jump from earlier in the season.

The Ravens find their footing on offense and stay in contention for the AFC North.

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens Moneyline (-132)

CARDINALS VS. TEXANS PREDICTION

ARI @ HOU Odds

There are tons of things I like about this matchup. The Buccaneers are 6th in Action Network's Luck Rankings, whereas the Saints are 25th. When you add that in with the fact that the Saints are a divisional underdog of more than a touchdown, this feels like a perfect spot for Tyler Shough and head coach Kellen Moore to shine.

We know that Baker Mayfield is not 100%, so the Saints have multiple things going in their favor here. Since Week 10, the Saints have a higher dropback EPA than the Bucs. This feels like a good buy-low spot for the Saints.

Prediction: Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans o42.5 (-105)

I would love to hear from you all. You can interact with me on Threads and best of luck this week.