NFL Odds Wild Card Weekend: Browns vs Texans Lines, Spreads, Betting Trends

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

The NFL Playoffs kick off Wild Card Weekend on Saturday mid-afternoon battle in the AFC between the Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans. The betting odds see Houston as a 2.5-point underdog despite owning home field advantage in the matchup. Coverage begins from NRG Stadium in Houston on Saturday, January 13 at 4:30 p.m. ET on NBC.

Here's everything you need to know about the NFL odds for Wild Card Weekend: Browns vs. Texans lines, spreads, betting trends and more.

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Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans Odds

• Opening point spread: Browns -1.5
• Opening moneyline: Browns -125/Texans +105
• Opening total: Over/Under 44 points scored
• Time: 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday (NBC)

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: With kickoff four hours out, the Browns are 2.5-point favorites at BetMGM. Cleveland opened at that same number Sunday night, and the number briefly went to -2 (-125) Monday. On Thursday, the Browns receded to -1.5 (-120), but they're up a point today to -2.5 flat.

It's all Cleveland on the spread, at 3/1 tickets and 5/1 money. Further, on the moneyline, while the Browns are seeing a modest majority 57% of tickets, that's converting into 74% of money.

"We need Houston pretty badly to start things off this Wild Card Weekend," BetMGM trader Seamus Magee said. "It's very lopsided on Browns -2, and money is still coming in on -2.5. And there's tons of action on Browns moneyline."

The total opened at 43.5, went to 44 Monday and 45 Tuesday. It was at 44.5 this morning, but it's now at 45 again. Tickets are running 2/1 and money 3/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Cleveland opened -2 and sits at -2.5 midweek in TwinSpires' Wild Card Weekend odds market. The Browns are drawing 55% of early spread bets/67% of early spread dollars.

"It's a mix of sharp and public play on the Browns -2," TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said.

The total opened at 43.5 and made a stop at 44 on the way to 44.5. The Over is taking 61% of bets/67% of money.

"It's a game where we actually need the Under," Lucas said.

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET SUNDAY: Houston (10-7 SU/9-8 ATS) had to win in Week 18, on the road no less, and did so. The Texans held off Indianapolis 23-19 on Saturday night, cashing as 1.5-point favorites.

C.J. Stroud and Co. won three of their last four SU and ATS to nab the AFC South title and the fourth seed. But the setback was to Cleveland in Week 16, with the Titans tumbling 36-22 as 3-point home underdogs. However, Houston didn't have Stroud, who was in concussion protocol.

Cleveland (11-6 SU and ATS) was locked into the No. 5 seed, with nothing to play for in Week 18. It showed, as the Browns lost 31-14 catching 7.5 points at Cincinnati.

But prior to that, behind Joe Flacco, Cleveland went on a 4-0 SU and ATS run to secure a playoff spot. And early action favors the Browns in The SuperBook's NFL odds Super Wild Card Weekend market.

"The market has gone up to Browns -2.5," SuperBook risk supervisor Chase Michaelson said. "I think that's a result of the market not typically trusting a rookie quarterback in this situation. The success rate of rookie quarterback/rookie head coach is pretty low. The market bets against that.

"Cleveland's defense has been pretty good all season, and with Flacco, the offense has been better."

The total is stable at 44.

"We're on the high end with the total," Michaelson said. "I think Houston's defense is not a strength. So I'd anticipate this game being fairly high-scoring, as playoff games go."

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Wild Card Weekend Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

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Browns vs Texans Pick, Prediction

Action Network NFL betting expert Brandon Anderson offers this prediction:

David Njoku might be the biggest beneficiary since Flacco joined the team. Flacco has long preferred throwing to his tight ends, and Njoku has seen a huge leap in production with Flacco. In their last four games together, Njoku has recorded 28 catches for 373 yards and four TDs, averaging seven receptions and 93 yards a game.

Houston allowed more receptions to tight ends than any team this season, and the Texans allowed the fifth most yards. This looks like a prime spot to back Njoku, who had six catches for 44 yards and a score in that game against the Texans already on Christmas Eve. I don't mind going over 5.5 receptions (+100, FanDuel) or playing an Anytime TD (+200, bet365), but I like receiving yards best since he can bust a long one over the middle even without racking up catches or finding the end zone.

Njoku has at least 91 yards in three of his last four with Flacco, so this line definitely feels low. So does 100+ yards at +600 (bet365), if you'd like a playoff escalator.

Pick: David Njoku Over 54.5 Receiving Yards

For more NFL picks, check out Action Network's NFL Wild Card Weekend: How to Bet Every Game & Every Team.

The One Stat to Know About Browns vs Texans

Action Network NFL researcher Evan Abrams offers his top betting stat:

Browns: Joe Flacco is 5-0 ATS in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. That is tied with Philip Rivers for the best mark in the Wild Card round since the format began in 1978.

For more NFL betting stats, check out Action Network's NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Trends, Stats, Notes.

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Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson