Last Updated Oct 10, 2022, 1:06 AM
NFL Week 1 Odds Report
US Sports Betting Industry Expert
NFL Week 1 odds have been brewing for months. And it's time to pour out that cup of coffee, with the regular season now underway.
Right out of the gate, we got a big game. The defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams hosted the Buffalo Bills, who are the favorite in this season's Super Bowl odds market. And there are plenty more intriguing matchups.
Multiple oddsmakers provide their insights on NFL Week One odds and action. Check back regularly for updates.
Opening line: Broncos -3.5; Over/Under 41
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, Sept. 12 (ABC/ESPN)
UPDATE 7:45 P.M. ET MONDAY: Thirty minutes pre-kick, BetMGM has the Broncos at -6 (-115), down a point from the Sunday night peak of -7 (even). The Broncos opened -4.5 way back in mid-May, reached -6 in mid-August and -6.5 in late August.
After last night's short stint at 7 drew sharp play on Seahawks +7 (-120), Denver dipped to -6.5. Today brought a couple of trips to -6, where the line sits now. Still, the road favorites are taking 85% of spread bets and 88% of spread cash.
Bettors are also hammering Broncos moneyline.
The total opened at 41.5 months ago, peaked at 44.5 Friday, receded to 43.5 this morning and is now 44. It's good two-way action, with 55% of bets on the Under and 51% of cash on the Over.
UPDATE 1 P.M. ET MONDAY: Denver opened as a 4-point road chalk in mid-May at DraftKings. After spending most of the summer at -4.5, the Broncos advanced to -5.5 and then -6 on Aug. 21. The line backed up to -5.5 a day later, returned to -6 Aug. 24, and it's mostly been at a couple iterations of -6.5 since Aug. 28.
However, this morning, the number peaked at Denver -7 for a couple of hours, before backing up to -6.5. Point-spread ticket count is running almost 9/1 and money 2.5/1 on the Broncos.
The total opened at 41 and didn't get beyond 42 for most of the summer. On Aug. 23, it ticked up to 42.5, and on Aug. 29, it returned to 42. The total went to 43 on Sept. 4, 44 on Sept. 6 and peaked at 45 a couple of times over the past few days.
Much of the weekend was spent at 44, and the total then went to 44.5 Sunday morning. This morning, the number dipped to 43.5, and it's now 44 (Under -115). The Over is taking 51% of bets/57% of money.
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: As with every other sportsbook, the opening Monday nighter has been a big mover on PointsBet USA's NFL Week 1 odds board. The Broncos opened as 4-point faves at Seattle and touched -5 a few times over the summer. Then on Aug. 24, Denver advanced to -5.5, -6 and -6.5.
Since then, the Broncos backed up to -6 a couple of times, but they've been stable at -6.5 since Tuesday morning. And it is all Denver on the point spread, with ticket count 9/1-plus and money 6/1.
The total opened at 41.5, hit a low point of 41 in June, then spent most of the summer at 41.5, with an occasional trip to 42/42.5. However, the total has been more on the rise the past week or so. On Tuesday, it reached 44.5, where it sits now. Ticket count is just shy of 2/1 and money 5/1 on the Over.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Russell Wilson and Denver are commanding a lot of early action at BetMGM Nevada. The Broncos opened -4.5 and are up to -6.5 for the Monday Night Football opener.
"This is gonna be one of the biggest public plays of all time in Week 1," Shelton said. "It'll be the biggest-teased game."
On straight bets thus far, spread tickets are running 6/1 and money 11/1 on the Broncos.
The total rose from 41.5 to 42.5.
"Sharp play on Over 41.5, but there's nothing really on the total at all," Shelton said.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET MONDAY, AUG. 29: Those NFL scheduling folks are quite the matchmakers. After Denver acquired QB Russell Wilson in an offseason trade with Seattle, the league decided to send Wilson and the Broncos to the Emerald City for Monday Night Football in Week 1.
Denver is coming off a disappointing 7-10 SU/8-9 ATS season. Seattle, which saw Wilson miss a month with a fractured finger, also went 7-10 SU (9-8 ATS).
The Broncos have shot all the way up to -6.5 at The SuperBook.
"This one has moved a lot," Murray said. "The sharp players figure to be on the 'dog here, but we know there will be a great deal of parlay accumulation to the Broncos. And we expect the public to be all over Russell Wilson as he visits his old team. Seattle will likely be the biggest need of the week for most sportsbooks, given the schedule spot and the line."
Opening line: Rams -1; Over/Under 52.5
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET Thursday, Sept. 8 (NBC)
UPDATE 7:15 P.M. ET THURSDAY: With kickoff an hour away, DraftKings has the Bills at -2.5, representing a 3.5-point shift from the mid-May opener of Rams -1. The line jumped the fence to Bills -1 in mid-July and hit -2.5 in mid-August.
The number nudged back to -2 a couple of times over the past couple of days, and it's been at -2.5 since late this afternoon. Point-spread ticket count and money are both running 2/1 on road favorite Buffalo.
DraftKings opened the total at 52 and backed up to 51.5 a few times throughout August. The total peaked at 53.5 on Aug. 30 and again on Monday, then dipped to 51.5 Wednesday morning. With kickoff approaching, the total is back at the 52 opener, with 62% of bets/53% of money on the Over.
UPDATE 1 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Several hours ahead of kickoff, Caesars Sports has Buffalo as a 2.5-point road favorite against Los Angeles. Back in mid-May, Caesars opened Los Angeles at -1. In early July, the line went to pick, then in mid-July to Buffalo -1. On Aug. 7, the Bills reached -2.5, where they've been ever since.
Point-spread ticket count is running 2/1 and point-spread cash 3/1 on the Bills.
Caesars opened the total at 52.5, spent pretty much all summer at 52, then jumped to 53.5 on Aug. 30. On Tuesday, the total dipped to 52, where it sits now, with 63% of bets on the Over, but 60% of money on the Under.
"Early money has definitely been on the Under," Caesars Sports assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. "A lot of sharps like to bet those high totals Under, especially when there's two good defenses. I anticipate that when we get closer to game time, the public is going to see those two teams and most likely bet Over. Usually in standalones, especially the first game of the season, the general public is thinking Over rather than Under."
On the prop bets front, Bills tight end Dawson Knox has nearly triple the tickets and three times as much money as any other player in the anytime touchdown market. Knox is +180. And at +1300, Knox is also tops in tickets and money on the prop of player to score the first TD.
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: With just one more sleep until the season kicks off, Buffalo is a 2-point chalk in PointsBet USA's NFL Week 1 odds market. This matchup opened at pick 'em back in May and made trips to Rams -1 and -1.5 early on. But by Aug. 1, the line jumped the fence to Bills -1.5, and the Bills spent most of August at various iterations of -2.5.
The line briefly touched Buffalo -3 on Aug. 31 and spent the past week jumping mostly between -2.5 and -2. It's been stable at Bills -2 since Tuesday morning, with ticket count running 2.5/1 and money 3/1-plus on Buffalo.
"Bettors are all over the Bills and the Over," PointsBet sports analyst Mike Korn said. "We'll be rooting for the 'dog and the Under, per usual."
The total also opened months ago, at 52, and dipped to 51.5 in early August. It peaked at 53.5 Monday, backed up to 51 Tuesday and is now at the original number of 52. The Over is seeing 61% of tickets/66% of money at PointsBet.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Four days before this matchup kicks off the regular season, BetMGM Nevada has the Bills -2.5 in the NFL Week 1 odds market. That's after opening this contest a pick 'em back in June.
Early ticket count is 4/1 and money about 5/1 on the Bills at BetMGM's mobile and retail operations in Nevada. But that includes a low-six-figure wager on Buffalo -2.5.
"That skews the money considerably," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said. "Almost all the money is at 2.5. The public is on the Bills, and they're playing Bills moneyline, too. Tickets are pretty close, but money is like 4/1."
Buffalo is -135 on the moneyline.
The total bounced around, from a 52 opener to 51.5, then up to 53, and it's now at 52.5.
"Sharp play on Over 52. It's 2/1 tickets and money on the Over," Shelton said.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET MONDAY, AUG. 29: In the regular-season opener, on Thursday night, Sept. 8, the Rams get to raise the banner for their 2021-22 Super Bowl title. After a 12-5 SU/8-9 ATS regular season, Los Angeles went on a four-game playoff run (2-2 ATS) to claim the title. In Super Bowl 56, the Rams held off the Cincinnati Bengals 23-20, but fell short of cashing as 4.5-point favorites.
You'd think the defending champs opening at home would lead to L.A. being the favorite. And the Rams would be against most teams.
But Buffalo isn't most teams, and L.A. is no longer favored. The Bills feature a high-octane offense led by QB Josh Allen, who was outstanding in his last outing. And that outing was in arguably one of the best NFL playoff games ever. Buffalo pushed the Kansas City Chiefs to overtime in last season's AFC Divisional Playoffs. But the Bills lost the coin toss and subsequently the game, 42-36 as 2.5-point road underdogs. Buffalo finished the year 12-7 SU/10-7-2 ATS.
The SuperBook opened at Rams -1 back on May 12, but that didn't last long, and the Bills are now -2.5.
"Despite the Rams winning the Super Bowl and being at home for this game, the line flipped pretty quickly to Bills favored, and it makes sense," said John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook. "Buffalo was probably the highest power-rated team in the league at the end of last season. And you know SoFi Stadium will be flooded with members of Bills Mafia. It’s Super Bowl or bust for Buffalo this season. We’ll need the Rams."The total is down a half-point to 52.
Opening line: Dolphins -3; Over/Under 45
Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 11 (CBS)
UPDATE 11 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Miami opened as a 3-point favorite at WynnBet, dipped to -2.5 in mid-July and peaked at -3.5 Tuesday. The Dolphins remain -3.5 this morning, while taking 59% of spread bets and 62% of spread dollars.
The total opened at 45, fell to 44.5, rallied to 47 Sept. 1 and is now at 46.5. Ticket count is almost dead even, while 57% of money is on the Under.
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: PointsBet USA opened Miami -3 and made multiple trips to -2.5 throughout the summer. However, the Dolphins moved from -2.5 to -3 on Aug. 28, then went to -3.5 Tuesday. Late this afternoon, Miami briefly touched -4, before returning to -3.5.
That said, it's two-way point-spread action at PointsBet, with Miami taking 56% of bets and New England netting 55% of money.
The total opened at 45, bottomed out at 44 in early July and peaked at 47 a week ago. It's now at 46, with 63% of bets/52% of money on the Under.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Miami opened as a 2.5-point chalk at BetMGM Nevada and now sits at -3, where the line has spent the past week. Ticket count is 3/1 on Miami, and practically all the early cash is on the Dolphins.
"There's almost zero money on the Patriots here in Nevada. No one's playing the Patriots right now," Shelton said.
The total rose from 44.5 to 47 and is now at 46.5, but tickets and money are 2/1 on the Under.
"Sharp play on Under 47," Shelton said.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET MONDAY, AUG. 29: New England went 10-7 SU and ATS in the regular season last year, nabbing an AFC Wild Card bid. But the Pats' playoff stay was short, as they got shellacked at Buffalo 47-17 catching 4.5 points. New England then lost longtime offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, now the Raiders' head coach.
Miami is coming off a 9-8 SU campaign (9-7-1 ATS). But the Fish finished with a flurry, going 8-1 SU/7-2 ATS over their last nine games. Still, that wasn't enough to save Brian Flores' job, and Mike McDaniel is the new coach. Miami opened and closed the regular season against New England and went 2-0 SU and ATS.
The Dolphins continue to be a 3-point favorite at The SuperBook.
"No movement here on the point spread," Murray said. "The Dolphins are a very trendy team coming into the season, with a new head coach in Mike McDaniels and a new superstar wide receiver in Tyreek Hill. I don’t expect this to be a big decision for the book, but I do think it’s one of the most interesting games of Week 1. These teams figure to be in the Wild Card race until the end."
The total is up a tick to 45.5.
Opening line: Chiefs -3; Over/Under 53
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 11 (CBS)
UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: About three hours before kickoff, Kansas City is a 6.5-point favorite at Caesars Sports. Back in mid-May, the Chiefs opened -3, and they were at -4.5 by Aug. 31. The key move on this matchup came Tuesday afternoon, when multiple sportsbooks reported sharp action on Chiefs -4/-4.5.
Caesars went straight to -5.5, then onto -6.5 by Tuesday evening. The line returned to -6 Wednesday, but it's been stable at -6.5 since FRiday evening. Point-spread ticket count is almost 2/1 and money 6/1 on Kansas City.
The total opened at 54, backed up to 53 in early July and returned to 54 briefly in late August, before dipping to 53.5. This morning, the total returned to the 54 opener at Caesars, where tickets are running 2/1 and money 4/1 on the Over.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET TUESDAY: With the holiday weekend gone, action is picking up for several games on the NFL Week 1 odds board. And a big move came this morning on this matchup. Several sportsbooks went from Chiefs -4 or -4.5 all the way up to Chiefs -6.
WynnBet was at -4 and moved straight to -6. Kansas City originally opened at -3 back in May, moved to -3.5 and then -4 last week, then made the big jump today. News over the summer initially got bettors on the Chiefs' bandwagon.
"Several professional handicappers have a low opinion of the Cardinals," WynnBet trader John Manica said, noting action on Under for Arizona's win total, currently at 9 (Under -160). The late May news of DeAndre Hopkins' suspension and last month's arrest of fellow wideout Marquise Brown for speeding added to the anti-Cards sentiment. But today's move had more to it than that.
"The action today was likely from a professional syndicate, causing the line to move," Manica said. That action came elsewhere – including at The SuperBook – but practically every book is now at -6.
At WynnBet, The Chiefs are taking 71% of spread bets and 95% of spread money. And that lopsided money count isn't due to any particularly large bets, but rather just an accumulation of cash.
The total is up a point to 54, with a relatively modest 57% of tickets on the Over translating to 93% of money on the Over.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Kansas City is out to -4.5 at BetMGM Nevada, after opening -3, reaching -3.5 on Aug. 22, and going to -4 and -4.5 on Aug. 31 . Early tickets and dollars are practically all on the Chiefs.
"There was sharp play on Chiefs -3," Shelton said.
The total is up a tick from 53 to 53.5, but Shelton said there's not much action at the moment.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET MONDAY, AUG. 29: After two straight Super Bowl trips and one championship, Kansas City went 14-6 SU/10-10 ATS last year, including postseason play. But the Chiefs fell a victory short of another Big Game trip. In the AFC title tilt, K.C. closed as a 7-point home favorite and lost to Cincinnati 27-24 in overtime.
Arizona won its first seven games last year (6-1 ATS), then sputtered through the second half of the season. That letdown was in no small part due to QB Kyler Murray missing a few weeks with an ankle injury. The Cardinals still finished the regular season 11-6 SU/10-7 ATS to earn an NFC Wild Card berth. But Arizona then lost to the division-rival Rams 34-11 as a 3-point road underdog.
Kansas City is up a notch to -3.5 on The SuperBook's NFL Week 1 odds board.
"The loss of Tyreek Hill won’t deter bettors from backing Patrick Mahomes and expecting big offensive numbers every time the Chiefs take the field," Murray said. "Arizona figures to be one of our biggest needs in the late games."
Opening line: Chargers -4; Over/Under 51.5
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 11 (CBS)
UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Back in mid-May, Caesars pegged Los Angeles a 4-point chalk in the NFL Week 1 odds market. The Chargers spent most of July/August at -3.5, then dipped to -3 Aug. 31. On Friday, L.A. inched up to -3.5.
Point-spread ticket count is running dead even, and the Chargers are netting 63% of spread money.
The total opened at 51.5 and initially dipped to 49.5, but quickly returned to the opener in mid-May. Since early July, the number has been nailed to 52, but late this morning, the total advanced to 52.5. Ticket count is 3/1 and money 6/1-plus on the Over.
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: The Chargers hit PointsBet USA's NFL Week 1 odds market as 4-point favorites, then spent most of the summer at -3.5, save for a couple short stints at -3. On Tuesday, Los Angeles twice got to -4, and the Bolts are now -3.5 again.
Las Vegas is actually taking the modest majority of spread tickets, at 56%, and is drawing 68% of spread cash.
PointsBet opened the total at 51.5 and was fairly stable at 52 from mid-June through late August. On Tuesday, the total peaked at 53, and it's now back at 52. The Over is taking 70% of early tickets/83% of early dollars.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Los Angeles hit BetMGM Nevada's NFL Week 1 odds board as a 3.5-point favorite, moved to -4 and is now at -3.5 (-105). Shelton said there's heavy local influence on the Raiders.
"It's all Raiders, 2/1 tickets and just over 3/1 money," Shelton said. "They're playing Raiders moneyline +150, too. It's 10/1 tickets and 15/1 money on the Raiders. We're gonna need the Raiders to go down every week."
BetMGM Nevada customers are also drilling the Over, although the total hasn't seen much movement. It opened at 52, briefly went to 51.5 and returned to 52.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET MONDAY, AUG. 29: These two teams met in the final game of the 2021-22 regular season, with both needing a win to secure a playoff bid. Las Vegas ultimately got it with a 35-32 overtime victory, winning on a final-seconds field goal. But the Raiders had a short playoff stay, losing at Cincinnati in the AFC Wild Card round 26-19 as a 6-point pup.
Las Vegas finished the season 10-8 SU/8-10 ATS. And as noted above, the Raiders have a new coach in Josh McDaniels. The Chargers (9-8 SU, 8-9 ATS) would've made the AFC postseason if not for a 1-3 SU and ATS skid to finish the year.
"We are currently at Chargers -3.5 (-120) in this matchup of two teams the public loves, coming into the season," Murray said. "I’d expect the Over to be a popular public spot. Both teams have tons of firepower on offense."
So far, the total is up a half-point to 52.
Opening line: Buccaneers -1.5; Over/Under 52
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 11 (NBC)
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Less than two hours until kickoff, WynnBet has the line at Buccaneers -2.5. That matches the opening line from months ago, although the Bucs dipped as low as -1 Aug. 20. By Tuesday, Tampa climbed back to -2.5 and has remained there since.
The Bucs are taking 62% of spread tickets and 70% of spread dollars. However, while moneyline tickets slightly favor Tampa. the Cowboys are drawing 76% of moneyline cash.
"It's two popular teams. So it's [bettors taking] Bucs -2.5 and Cowboys on the moneyline," WynnBet vice president of trading Alan Berg said. "It's almost the same as Thursday with the Rams and Bills."
So ideally, the book is rooting for a Tampa win and a Dallas cover, in that very narrow 2.5-point frame.
The total opened at 52, dipped to 51 in early August and 50.5 in mid-August. Early this week, the number climbed back to 51.5, but by early this evening, it was at its low point of 50.
"We shockingly need the Over at the moment," Berg said, noting 58% of tickets on the Under is translating to a hefty 91% of money on the Under.
UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: A few hours ahead of the Sunday night game, Tampa Bay is laying 2 points in Caesars Sports' NFL Week 1 odds market. The Bucs opened -2.5 in May, dipped to -2 in late June and bottomed out at -1 a few times in the second half of August.
However, Tampa climbed back to -2.5 by Tuesday, before nudging down to -2 late this morning. It's two-way point-spread action with a lean toward the Cowboys, at 52% of tickets/53% of money.
The total opened at 51.5, got to 52.5 in late July, then receded to 49.5 by Aug. 20. Since then, the total has toggled between 50, 50.5 and 51 a few times, and it's currently 50 (Over -115). The Under is taking 59% of bets, while 65% of money is on the Over.
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Back in mid-May, Tampa Bay opened as a 2-point road fave vs. Dallas at PointsBet USA. The Bucs made a couple trips to -2 over the next two months, then dipped to -1.5 Aug. 5. On Aug. 24, Tampa hit its low point of -1, then rebounded to -2.5 by Tuesday.
The Bucs are landing 70% of spread bets for Sunday Night Football, but that's translating to just 55% of spread dollars.
The total opened at 51.5 and peaked at 53.5 in late July. Since then, it's dropped off to as low as 50, and it's now at 50.5. Ticket count is dead even, while the Under is taking 69% of cash.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Tampa Bay opened -2.5 a couple of months ago at BetMGM Nevada and bottomed out at -1 on Aug. 21. The Bucs have been fairly stable at -1.5 since Aug. 16.
"This one is the best two-way game so far. Five more tickets on the Cowboys, and both teams have a lot of tickets. A few more dollars on the Bucs," Shelton said of point-spread play in Las Vegas.
The total moved from 52 to 52.5, but has since slid down to 50.
"There's hardly any money on the Over," Shelton said, while noting a $23,000 play on Under 52 and a 4/1 ticket count on the Under.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET MONDAY, AUG. 29: Coming off a Super Bowl win over Kansas City, Tampa Bay went 13-4 SU/8-9 ATS in the 2021-22 regular season. The Bucs then took care of the Eagles on Wild Card Weekend. But the season ended on Tampa's home field in the NFC Divisional Playoffs. As 2.5-point favorites, the Buccaneers lost to the Rams 30-27 on a final-seconds field goal.
Meanwhile, Dallas went 12-5 SU and an NFL-best 13-4 ATS in the regular season. But the Cowboys laid a Wild Card Weekend egg at home, losing 23-17 as 3.5-point faves against the 49ers.
Dallas and Tampa met in last year's regular-season opener, with the Bucs eking out a 31-29 victory, and the Cowboys cashing as 10-point 'dogs.
This year's Sunday Night Football opener has been thrown a bit of a curve. Bucs QB Tom Brady took significant time off during the preseason for personal reasons, though he's since returned. The Bucs are currently at -1.5, matching The SuperBook's opener in the NFL Week 1 odds market. But the total is down 2 points to 50.
"Nobody is quite sure what to make of Brady’s offseason and what is going on with him heading into the regular season. But we do know for sure that his offensive line has been decimated by preseason injuries," Murray said. "Dallas also lost standout offensive tackle Tryon Smith in the preseason. No need for much change to the line despite those injuries to both teams. We will need the Cowboys in what should be the most-heavily-bet game of Week 1."