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NFL

TNF – Eagles at Packers

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
9 minute read
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LAST WEEK

The Eagles (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) are one of three teams in the NFL that has not covered a game yet this season, along with the Chargers and Dolphins (who meet this week). All three games for Philadelphia this season have been decided by five points or less, including last Sunday’s 27-24 home setback to Detroit. The Eagles failed to cash as four-point favorites to drop to 1-7 ATS in Carson Wentz’s last eight starts since Week 10 of 2018.

Philadelphia played without its top two wide receivers with DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery sidelined, while Wentz threw for 259 yards and two touchdowns. Both scoring strikes went to Nelson Agholor, who led Philadelphia with eight receptions, but the Eagles dropped to 0-2 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field this season. The Eagles allowed a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown by the Lions, but Philadelphia blocked a field goal late and had an opportunity to tie the game, but turned the ball over on downs.

The Packers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) are one of three NFC teams to own 3-0 records through three weeks, as Green Bay will face another one of those unbeaten squads in Week 5 with a trip to Dallas. Green Bay avoided a letdown spot after beating division rivals Chicago and Minnesota the first two weeks by pulling away from Denver last Sunday, 27-16 to cash as seven-point home favorites.

Green Bay’s defense has stepped up through the first three weeks by allowing a total of 35 points, which is the second-fewest given up in the league behind New England’s 17 points. Aaron Rodgers is not putting up normal Aaron Rodgers numbers through three weeks as the Packers’ All-Pro quarterback has not broken the 300-yard passing mark in any of the three games. Rodgers connected with Marquez Valdez-Scantling on a 40-yard touchdown early, but the Green Bay signal-caller finished with 235 yards, while the Packers rushed for only 77 yards on 23 carries.

SACRIFICIAL LAMBEAU

Green Bay continues to own a solid home-field advantage at Lambeau Field by posting a 7-2-1 record since the start of 2018. Taking it a step further, in the last 16 games in Green Bay (including the playoffs) that Rodgers has started and finished, the Packers are 14-1-1 SU and 12-4 ATS, with the only loss coming to Arizona last season as a 13 ½-point favorite. The caveat of starting and finishing the game applies since Rodgers played the opening three series in the Week 17 finale against Detroit last season in a meaningless 31-0 defeat.

SILENT DOGS

The Eagles sit in the underdog role for the first time this season, as Philadelphia posted a 3-2 ATS mark when receiving points last season. However, all three of those covers came with Nick Foles at quarterback, which included a victory as a 13 ½-point underdog against the Rams and the narrow playoff victory at Chicago. In fact, the Eagles went 0-2 ATS as a ‘dog with Wentz under center as Philadelphia was blown at New Orleans and was squeezed in an overtime setback at Dallas. However, the last underdog cover produced by Wentz did come in a Thursday night road game in a 28-23 triumph at Carolina in 2017.

SERIES HISTORY

The Eagles won five consecutive matchups with the Packers from 2003 through 2006, which included a divisional playoff victory in the 2003 postseason. However, Green Bay has turned the tables since then by winning five of six matchups from 2007 through 2016, although only three of the last 10 meetings have come at Lambeau Field.

Green Bay topped Philadelphia in a Monday night matchup at Lincoln Financial Field in the previous showdown in 2016 as the Pack pulled away for a 27-13 victory as four-point underdogs. The Packers entered that night on a four-game skid, but that win at Philadelphia sprung Green Bay on a six-game winning streak and a trip to the NFC championship before falling at Atlanta. Rodgers outdueled Wentz that night as Green Bay held the ball for over 35 minutes and the Green Bay quarterback threw for 313 yards and two touchdowns. Green Bay owns a 4-0 record against Philadelphia with Rodgers starting, while Wentz makes his first ever start at Lambeau Field.

FIRST HALF/SECOND HALF NUMBERS

The Packers have started well in all three games by outscoring their opponents, 45-23, while covering in all three first halves. The ‘under’ has cashed in the second half in all three of Green Bay’s games, as the Packers have scored only one touchdown after halftime this season.

The Eagles have not covered in the first half this season in three games, while going 2-1 ATS in the second half with both covers coming at home against the Redskins and Lions.

HOORAY FOR THURSDAY

Philadelphia has won the last four Thursday night contests since 2016, including three with Wentz as the starting quarterback. The Packers own a 4-2 mark on Thursday night since 2015, as Green Bay is 2-1 in this stretch at Lambeau Field. The underdog/’under’ combination has hit in all three Thursday games this season, while the winning team has not scored more than 20 points in any of those contests.

TOTAL TALK

Including the 24-20 loss at Atlanta in Week 2, the Eagles have now seen the ‘under’ produce a 4-0-1 record in their last five road games dating back to last season. Chris David of VegasInsider.com is aware of that current streak but he believes the total run could be short-lived for Philadelphia based on previous tendencies.

David explains, “The book on Philadelphia has been a quick read under head coach Doug Pederson since he took over in 2016. You get great defensive efforts at the Linc, but the unit hasn’t travelled well. The current trend is leaning ‘under’ but two of those games were in the playoffs and the other matchup was a meaningless Week 17 matchup. In the other two contests, the Birds allowed 24 and 23 points.”

“Including those five games, Pederson has coached in 26 road games with Philadelphia. My attention is on the 21 other results and you’ve got data that’s hard to ignore. The Eagles went 8-13 in those games while allowing 25.6 PPG and that translated into an eye-opening 15-5-1 ‘over’ (75%) record. Coincidentally, the team total for Green Bay is hovering between 25 and 26 points. Knowing the Eagles are banged-up on defense and they haven’t looked sharp on that side of the ball, I’m expecting Green Bay to get on the board on the short week.”

“As far as the game total, I’d likely lean ‘over’ 46. Green Bay’s defense has looked great so far and it leads the league in takeaways (8) but I believe the overall numbers have been helped by the opponents they faced, in particular the offensive units. Wentz hasn’t been sharp for the Eagles and not having a healthy wide receiver corps has hurt, but he’s clearly better than the first trio that the Packers have faced in Trubisky, Cousins and Flacco.”

Historically, this series has been one-sided to the ‘under’ with the low side cashing in eight of the last 10 meetings.

For those looking for Thursday Night trends, the Eagles have watched the ‘over’ cash in their last three mid-week games dating back to 2016. Prior to the Week 1 win at Chicago this season, Green Bay watched it’s last two Thursday games go ‘over’ and the Packers put up 27 and 35 points, winning both decisions.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com NFL expert Joe Nelson provides his view on the Packers’ hot start, “Ranking 28th in yards per play offense (behind teams like Pittsburgh and Tennessee) the Packers don’t have a typical 3-0 profile even with a future Hall of Fame quarterback. The defense has good overall numbers but has allowed 4.9 yards per rush and in facing Chicago, Minnesota, and Denver, the Packers are yet to take on an elite offensive team or opposing quarterback.”

“The case can be made that the Packers are a phony contender with three narrow wins in which they have been out-gained by their opposition overall but have benefitted from posting the best turnover differential in the NFL at +6. Others will say that the team is only going to improve with more time under Matt LaFleur given some significant roster and system changes in the off-season and that this is a budding Super Bowl threat that is 3-0 without coming close to its potential yet,” Nelson notes.

Focusing on Philadelphia, Nelson makes some interesting points regarding the Eagles, “The scoring differential for the Eagles is just -2 through a 1-2 start and in contrast to the Packers, the Eagles have had one of the best run defenses in the NFL, allowing just 2.9 yards per rush, 2nd best in the league through three weeks. Philadelphia’s offense has disappointed so far through a schedule that isn’t likely to have featured elite defensive teams, 24th in the NFL posting 5.2 yards per play. That figure is 0.4 yards per play better than Green Bay but the Packers have faced teams with strong defensive reputations.”

PLAYER PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook

Total Completions – Carson Wentz (PHI)
Over 23 ½ (-110)
Under 23 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Carson Wentz (PHI)
Over 1 ½ (-120)
Under 1 ½ (Even)

Total Receiving Yards – Nelson Agholor (PHI)
Over 46 ½ (-110)
Under 46 ½ (-110)

Total Gross Passing Yards – Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Over 264 ½ (-110)
Under 264 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Over 1 ½ (-150)
Under 1 ½ (+130)

Total Receiving Yards – Davante Adams (GB)
Over 81 ½ (-110)
Under 81 ½ (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT

The Packers opened as two-point favorites when CG Technologies released their weekly odds back in June. Green Bay is currently a four-point favorite with the total sitting at 46. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-50’s at kickoff and there is no threat of rain at Lambeau Field.

You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com

Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.


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