Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:56 AM
Vegas Money Moves - Week 12
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The casual regular Joe bettor had their best week of the NFL season last week and they come into Week 12 flush with cash and strong opinions collectively on who is going to help them cash again. The South Point sportsbook in Las Vegas has identified the teams that stand out the most in regards to tickets written.
“The Lions (-3.5 at Washington) are the top public play, no sharp play on it at all,” said South Point book director Chris Andrews. “There’s an 8-to-1 ticket count on them. Everyone knows the Redskins are garbage.”
Yes, the Redskins with rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins have not been competitive. Also true, the Redskins with any QB have not been competitive. Their only win this season came at Miami, 17-16, but they didn’t even get the cover (-6) in that road victory back in Week 6.
The odd part about the public jumping all over the Lions this week is that QB Matthew Stafford has already been ruled 'out' for the third straight week. Back-up Jeff Driskel has looked decent the past two weeks starting, but the Lions still lost both games to extend their non-cover streak to five games.
Despite all those negative stats on the Lions, the public is basically saying “so what, the Redskins suck worse.”
The second most popular public wager at the South Point is the Seahawks who are getting +1 at Philadelphia.
“We’re at a 5-to-1 ratio on ticket counts with the Seahawks, and after them, the most popular is the Saints (-10 vs. Panthers) and Falcons (-3.5 vs. Buccaneers) each at a 4-to-1 ratio,” Andrews said
The Eagles are off a 17-10 home loss to the Patriots last Sunday while Seahawks will be coming off their bye week. The last image the public has of the Seahawks came in Week 10, when Seattle was giving the 49ers their first loss (27-24) of the season on Monday Night Football. The Seahawks are riding a three-game wining streak and are a perfect 5-0 on the road, 4-1 against the spread. Meanwhile, the Eagles are in desperation mode at 5-5 and their playoff hopes are slowly diminishing.
The Falcons have won and covered the last three meetings with the Buccaneers, but the public popularity with them this week is based on the Bucs failing to cover their last six games coupled with the Falcons climbing out of the grave with two big road wins the last two weeks at New Orleans (26-9) and at Carolina (29-3). The Falcons defense apparently works now and the effort from that unit has helped them stay 'under' the total in those victories and their last four overall.
However, sharp money feels differently about the Falcons, who lost six straight before breaking out the last two weeks.
“Sharp money took the Bucs at +5 and +4.5,” said Andrews.
There’s a mix around Las Vegas books showing the Falcons at -3.5 and -4.
Station Casinos Jason McCormick and CG Technology’s Tony DiTommaso both said the Bucs have been their most bet sharp game of the week.
Just a side note with the Bucs total at 51.5: the Bucs have gone 'over' the total in their last eight games:
McCormick also said sharp play has come on the Rams (+3 vs. Ravens on MNF) and Titans (-3.5 vs. Jaguars).
Jeff Davis at Caesars Palace says his top sharp plays have been the Seahawks, Titans, and the 'over' (48) in the Packers-49ers matchup on Sunday Night Football.
The 49ers have gone 'over' the total in their last four games and their strong defense has looked ragged at times in two wins against the Cardinals and a loss to the Seahawks.
The sharp play on the Titans was laying -3. The Jaguars got Nick Foles back at QB last week and while he completed 70 percent of his passes for 296 yards they still lost 31-13 at Indianapolis. The Titans come off a bye but have three of their last four with Ryan Tannehill looking sharp. The Titans last game was a 35-32 win against the Chiefs. The Jaguars beat the Titans in Week 3, 20-7, to continue an ongoing trend where the home team is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
The game I find most intriguing in regards to the spread is the Ravens -3 at the L.A. Rams on Monday. The numbers say there has been a meteoric rise with the Ravens rating while also equally decrease with the Rams rating. I think it may be too much of a knee-jerk reaction with both numbers.
The Ravens have won six straight behind the top rushing team (203 YPG) and they're also the highest-scoring team (34 PPG). At the same time, the Rams don’t resemble the Super Bowl team from last season with QB Jared Goff looking shaky at times. But they’re still 7-3 ATS this season while the Ravens are 5-5 ATS. The Rams are currently on an 11-4 ATS run plus the defense has been steady lately, which has helped the 'under' cash in their last five games.
No one can stop the Ravens run game, but the Rams run defense has been strong allowing only 89 yards per game this season.
Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 15 years.