Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:55 AM
AFC Divisional Notes
Tennessee at Baltimore
Saturday, Jan. 11 (CBS, 8:05 p.m. ET)
Titans Road Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS, 5-4 O/U
Ravens Home Record: 7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U
Record versus Playoff Teams
Includes Wild Card Results
Tennessee: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 O/U
Baltimore: 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS, 2-4 O/U
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Baltimore as a 10-point favorite while the total was sent out at 49. The number on the Ravens has dropped to -9 ½ and the ‘over/under’ has dropped to 48 at the Westgate while a couple other sportsbooks have gone down to 47 ½.
2019 Off the Bye
Baltimore has been one of the best teams when playing with rest under head coach John Harbaugh. Since he started in 2018, the Ravens have gone 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS. This season, they blasted the Patriots 37-20 in Week 8 after their bye week. During Harbaugh’s tenure, Baltimore has only earned a playoff bye once when it was the No. 2 seed during the 2011 campaign. The Ravens defeated the Texans 20-13 but failed to cover as 7 ½-point favorites. Following that win, Baltimore would end up losing 23-20 at New England in the AFC Championship.
Prior to 2019, these teams met in each of the previous regular seasons with Tennessee capturing a 23-20 win at home in 2017 before Baltimore avenged that loss with a 21-0 victory at Nashville in 2018. The Ravens had Joe Flacco at quarterback in that road win while the Titans has Marcus Mariota under center.
Baltimore has won four straight (2-2 ATS) games against AFC South foes, which includes a 41-7 rout of Houston in Week 11 of this year’s season. Tennessee blasted Cleveland 43-13 in Week 1 as a 5 ½-point road underdog and that helped the team improve to 5-2 over their last seven encounters against teams from the AFC North.
Baltimore has gone 10-6 SU and 11-5 all-time in the playoffs under Harbaugh but only three of those games took place at home where the team went 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. This is the largest point-spread that Baltimore has been favored by in the playoffs under Harbaugh. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has only played in one playoff game and he’s 0-1 after the Ravens dropped a 23-17 decision to the Chargers as three-point home favorites in the Wild Card round.
Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel won his first career playoff game last Saturday as the Titans defeated the Patriots 20-13 as five-point road underdogs. Tennessee went 1-1 in the 2017 postseason, both games played on the road. The win over New England was also the first for Titans QB Ryan Tannehill.
Tennessee has watched the ‘over’ go 10-7, which included a 5-4 mark away from home. Since Tannehill took over as starter, the Titans have seen the ‘over’ go 9-2 and the team has scored 20 or more points in every game. Baltimore averaged 33.2 points per game on offense, which was ranked first in the league but the attack was more explosive (36.5 PPG) on the road than at home (29.9 PPG). The ‘over/under’ produced 4-4 results at M&T Bank Stadium and that was helped with strong defensive scoring averages (18.6 PPG).
Dating back to 2000, the Ravens have seen the ‘under’ cash in six straight home playoff games and only two opponents were able to score more than 20 points. Including last Saturday’s result at Foxboro, Tennessee has watched the ‘under’ cash in six of their last seven playoff games.
Going back to 2014, the Ravens have seen the ‘under’ go 7-2-1 against AFC South opponents and that includes a 4-0-1 mark at home. The defense only allowed 14.6 PPG. Meanwhile, the Titans have watched the ‘over’ go 7-3 versus AFC North teams during the same span.
Houston at Kansas City
Sunday, Jan. 12 (CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET)
Texans Road Record: 5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS, 3-5 O/U
Chiefs Home Record: 5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS, 5-3 O/U
2019 Record versus Playoff Teams
Includes Wild Card Results
Houston: 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS, 4-3 O/U
Kansas City: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 5-1 O/U
The SuperBook sent out Kansas City as a 7 ½-point home favorite and that number was quickly pushed up to Chiefs -9. The total opened 50 and has been moved to 49 at the Las Vegas outfit.
Off the Bye
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid owns an eye-opening 18-3 overall record in his career when his teams are playing with rest in the regular season. While most of the success came during his tenure with Philadelphia (13-1), he does own a 5-2 record with the Chiefs. This season, Kansas City diced up Oakland 40-9 in Week 13 after its ‘bye’ week. When playing with rest in the playoffs, Reid has gone 4-1 in the Divisional Playoff round.
The two teams have met twice in the last three regular seasons and the road team has won both matchups. Kansas City captured a 42-34 win at NRG stadium in 2017 while Houston earned a 31-24 at Arrowhead this year in Week 6.
Houston has gone 5-2 in its last seven games against the AFC West and it’s been perfect on the road versus this division, going 3-0 both SU and ATS as underdogs.
Kansas City defeated Jacksonville 40-26 in Week 1 but it closed the season with three consecutive losses to AFC South clubs, two of the setbacks coming at home.
Reid owns a 12-14 career record in the playoffs and he hasn’t had much success with Kansas City, going 2-5. At Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs have gone 1-3 under Reid in the playoffs and the lone win came in last year’s Divisional Playoff round against Indianapolis (31-13). Prior to the win over the Colts last season, Kansas City had dropped six straight at home in the playoffs with the last win coming in 1994.
Houston’s 22-19 overtime victory against Buffalo in last week’s Wild Card matchup pushed the club to 4-5 all-time in the postseason. Texans head coach Bill O’Brien is 2-3 and that includes a 0-1 mark on the road. Houston is 0-3 in the Divisional Playoff round, losing by an average of 12.6 PPG.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and Texans signal caller Deshaun Watson both own 1-1 records in the playoffs. The difference is that Kansas City has scored exactly 31 points in their games with him at QB while Watson has managed 7 and 22 points, the latter coming last Saturday at home. The Texans failed to score in the first-half of both those games and this will be the first road playoff start for the former Clemson standout.
The Texans own a 10-7 ‘under’ record this season and the low side went 5-3 away from home but the defense surrendered 31.6 PPG in three road games versus playoff teams. Kansas City saw the ‘over/under’ go 8-8 overall in the regular season, but it closed the season on a 5-1 ‘under’ run. The defense only allowed 11.5 PPG during this final stretch but that number could be misleading with five games against non-playoff squads. The ‘over’ went 5-3 at Arrowhead this stadium and that includes a 4-0 mark to the high side against postseason teams. The defense gave up 28.3 PPG in those games.
Houston has watched the ‘under’ go 5-4 in its only nine playoff games. Kansas City has watched the ‘under’ go 4-3 with Reid on the sidelines in the postseason. In his two coaching playoff wins with the Chiefs, they allowed a combined 13 points scored and the ‘under’ connected easily in both games.
The Texans have seen the ‘under’ go 2-1 in their last three road games versus the AFC West and the defense has only allowed 20.3 PPG. The Chiefs saw the ‘over’ go 3-1 against AFC South teams this season.
Sticking with the ‘bye’ factor above, Kansas City has outscored opponents 74-12 in its last two games at home when playing with rest.