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NFC Divisional Notes

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
AFC Divisional Notes | Odds to win Super Bowl 54 | Playoff Results

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)

Minnesota at San Francisco

Saturday, Jan. 11 (NBC, 4:35 p.m. ET)

Vikings Road Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS, 5-4 O/U
49ers Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 O/U

Record versus Playoff Teams

Includes Wild Card Results

Minnesota: 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS, 3-3 O/U
San Francisco: 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS, 2-2-1 O/U

Opening Odds

After the Vikings defeated the Saints 26-20 in their Wild Card matchup, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sent out San Francisco as a seven-point home favorite with a total of 45 ½. Early money came in on the Vikings and the currently line is 49ers -6 ½ while the ‘over/under’ has held in check.

2019 Off the Bye

San Francisco defeated Cleveland 31-3 in Week 5 after its ‘bye’ week and that snapped an eight-game winless streak (0-7-1) for the 49ers when playing with rest. It was also the first win for 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan when playing with rest since he took over the team in 2017 after starting 0-2.

Head-to-Head

These teams met in Week 1 of the 2018 regular season and Minnesota stopped San Francisco 24-16 as a six-point home favorite. 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo tossed a career-high three interceptions in that loss while his counterpart Kirk Cousins passed for 244 yards and two touchdowns in the win for the Vikings.

Minnesota dropped a 37-30 loss to Seattle in Week 13 on Monday Night Football. Including that loss, the Vikings have lost three of their last four encounters against NFC West foes and they haven’t captured a road win against this division since 2004.

San Francisco blitzed Green Bay 37-8 as a three-point home favorite in Week 11. Prior to that win, the 49ers went 1-3 in the 2018 regular season when matched up against the NFC North but Garropolo missed two of those games due to injury.

Playoff Notes

Minnesota’s win over New Orleans on Sunday was the first road playoff victory for the club since 2005. The win pushed head coach Mike Zimmer’s record to 2-2 overall in the postseason. The last appearance for the Vikings in the Divisional Playoff round came in 2017 and it snuck past the Saints 29-24 with a late touchdown reception. Cousins owns a 1-1 career playoff record as a starter.

San Francisco hasn’t been in the playoffs since the 2013-14 season. The club won its first two games on the road but came up short to Seattle (17-23) in the NFC Championship game. This will be the first career playoff start for Garropolo.

This will be the first playoff game for Shanahan but he does have experience in the postseason as a coordinator, most recently with Atlanta in 2016. The Falcons averaged 36 PPG during that playoff run, but the offense took the blame in their Super Bowl LI loss (28-34) to the Patriots when they were held to just seven points in the second-half.

Total Notes

Prior to Sunday’s ‘under’ result versus New Orleans, Minnesota was on a 5-0 ‘over’ run in its last five away games. Since being held to 16 and 6 points to divisional foes in the Packers and Bears respectively in September, the Minnesota offense has averaged 30.8 PPG in its last seven as a visitor.

San Francisco started the season with a 5-1 ‘under’ run before closing on a 7-2-1 ‘over’ surge. The Niners played their first eight games of the season against non-playoff teams before losing to Seattle (24-27) in Week 10. Make a note that All-Pro tight end George Kittle was ‘out’ for San Francisco in that setback to the Seahawks.

At home, the ‘over’ went 5-3 for the 49ers behind the top-ranked scoring offense at home this season with 32.4 PPG. As mentioned above, they scored 31 when playing with rest but the ‘under’ has gone 3-0 in games played after the ‘bye’ for San Francisco under Shanahan.

Minnesota has watched the ‘under’ go 3-2 in its last five postseason games, which includes the Wild Card result this past weekend at New Orleans. The 49ers have watched the ‘under’ go 3-0 in their last postseason appearance (2013-14).

Going back to 2003, the ‘under’ is on a 6-1 run in this head-to-head series.

Seattle at Green Bay

Sunday, Jan. 12 (FOX, 6:40 p.m. ET)

Seahwks Road Record:
7-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS, 4-4-1 O/U
Packers Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, 3-5 O/U

2019 Record versus Playoff Teams

Includes Wild Card Results

Seattle: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 3-3-1 O/U
Green Bay: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U

Opening Odds

The Superbook opened Green as a 3 ½-point favorite and the Packers were pushed up quickly to -4. The total dropped from 47 to 46.

Off the Bye

The Packers have lost their last three regular season games after their ‘bye’ week. Two of those defeats came on the road, which includes a humbling 37-8 loss at San Francisco this season in Week 12 on Sunday Night Football.

Head-to-Head

This series has been one-sided to the home team with the host winning the last eight encounters between the pair. The most recent meeting took place in the 2018 regular season when Seattle defeated Green Bay 27-24 as a three-point home favorite. Prior to that game, the Packers had won three straight games against the Seahawks. The pair met in the 2014-15 playoffs and Seattle pulled off an improbable 28-22 comeback victory at home over Green Bay.

Including that outcome, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is 5-4 all-time against Seattle and all four of the losses came at CenturyLink Field. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is 4-3 in his career against Green Bay but he’s 0-3 in his career at Lambeau Field and those teams were held to 17, 10 and 9 points.

Seattle has won four straight against the NFC North while Green Bay is on a 0-4 skid versus teams from the NFC West.

Playoff Notes

Green Bay hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2016 when they won its first two games before falling to Atlanta 44-21 in the NFC Championship. This will be the playoff coaching debut for Packers head coach Matt LaFleur. Rodgers owns a 9-7 career record in the playoffs as a starter and that includes a 3-2 mark at home.

Wilson improved to 9-5 in the playoffs in Sunday’s 17-9 Wild Card win at Philadelphia. That victory snapped a three-game road losing streak in the playoffs for the Seahawks. Since he took over as a starter in 2012, Wilson is 2-4 away from home in the postseason and that doesn’t include his 1-1 record in the Super Bowl.

Total Notes

Seattle has tallied the most road wins (8-1) in the NFL this season and the defense has traveled well (19.7 PPG). That effort has helped the ‘under’ go 5-4.

Green Bay’s total results had a tail of two seasons as the ‘over’ started 5-3 through the first eight games but the ‘under’ produced a 7-1 mark down the stretch. The offense only averaged 20.1 PPG during this span while the defense held opponents to 18.8 PPG. The ‘under’ went 5-3 at Lambeau Field and that includes a 3-0 run entering the playoffs.

The Packers have watched the ‘over’ go 5-1 in their last six playoff games, five of those contests taking place on the road. In the lone home game, the Packers put up 38 points during the 2016 postseason.

Seattle has seen the ‘over’ go 4-3 in its last seven road playoff games with Wilson at QB. The defense has looked sharp in three wins over this span, allowing 10.6 PPG. However, the unit has surrendered 30.3 PPG in four losses.

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