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Super Bowl Parlay Analysis

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
11 minute read
Super Bowl 54 Prop Resources | Super Bowl 54 Betting Update

Super Bowl 54 Parlay Best Bet
Side & Over Analysis

NFL betting throughout the year is never a stranger to recreational action, but recreational bettors from near, far and everywhere inbetween want to have some stake on the Super Bowl each year. That's not to say regular weekly bettors don't get involved in Super Bowl parlays as well, but experienced bettors understand how difficult it can be getting both side and total correct, and yet plenty are willing to try on the Super Bowl each year, largely because it is the Super Bowl.

With that being the case, hopefully the information that follows can help some of you who are looking to go for a bigger score by parlaying the side and total, and similar to my totals piece the other day, I'm here to break down the past for you, with the goal of it hopefully helping you in the future. With a side/total parlay paying in the +260 range, that's a decent score for the Super Bowl if you can get it right, so let's start with a look at the past Super Bowls to see if there is anything we can use.

Super Bowl History

Going back through the Super Bowls, you'll see that four of them have to be omitted in the way we are considering things here with the four options of Favorite-Over, Favorite-Under, Underdog-Over, Underdog-Under.

There were two games that are completely ignored, as Super Bowl I had no total was every posted, and Super Bowl 49 when the side closed as a 'pick'em' between the Patriots and Seahawks. The other two (SB 31 and SB 34) are being ignored because the sides pushed in those instances, so as long as you got the total correct, your parlay would have been reduced to just a single wager. Which means we've got 49 different data points to break down historically.

In terms of a tally, this is how the four blind betting options break down:

Favorite-Over: 15 times
Favorite-Under: 11 times
Underdog-Over: 10 times
Underdog-Under: 13 times

Admittely, seeing that Favorite-Over has been the best course of action to take blind in Super Bowl history was a bit surprising given that everyone knows favorites and 'overs' are generally going to be the “public” side. Even with that to see it have the best results is interesting to say the least, but let's dig a little deeper shall we.

Favorite-Over

This correlation my have connected the most times in Super Bowl history, but like a fine wine, you'll have to be a certain vintage to significantly remember them all. Between 1985 (San Francisco vs Miami in SB 19) and the end of the century, this play connected eight different times, including three years in a row starting with that SB 19 game. We are also omitting SB 31 in this group as well when Green Bay pushed as -14 favorites and it sailed 'over' the total.

Super Bowl Betting History

In seven of the 11 Super Bowls between 1985 and 1995, the favorite-over combination was the way to go, and the San Francisco 49ers were a part of that run three different times. The 49ers aren't currently listed as the favorites for this year's game, but we can't completely rule out the possibility of them flipping to that side given where the current number sits.

However, since the 2000's appeared, this is not a correlation you generally want to play. It's only connected three different times in this century (SB 35, SB 45, and SB 51). So as rich as recreational bettors got betting the favorite to the 'over' in Super Bowls during the late 80's and 90's, they spent all of the 2000's giving it back. That's not exactly the run of recent results you want to hear if you are considering a play on KC-Over this year.

In terms of scenarios that are also applicable to this year's game – total in the 50's, 1 vs 2, played in Miami, spread of -3 or less – the one that probably provides the most relevance is the total being in the 50's. In the 11 Super Bowls we've had with a total at least that high, the favorite-over combination has connected four different times, with the last being the Patriots/Falcons games a few years back that saw Atlanta choke away that epic lead. The 49ers were involved in two of the other three though, so keep that in mind for what it's worth.

Favorite-Under

There isn't a whole lot to decifier from this correlation, although it was the most recent one to hit, connecting last year in the Patriots/Rams game. Ten of the 11 times it's connected the favorite was laying a touchdown or less which is applicable this year, and it's happened twice when the game was played in Miami.

One of those two games in Miami was SB 41 between the Colts and Bears, connecting on both despite the 'underdog Chicago Bears (+7) returning the opening kickoff. Recently, it's another combination that hasn't fared well in the 2000's as it's only hit three times with SB 34 being a push in there as well. Only twcie has it connected with a total in the 50's as well (SB 28, SB 53).

The thing that really stands out to me for this combination is two-fold. One, it was money in the early days of the Super Bowl, as it cashed five straight years in the early 1970's (1971-1975) and six times in the decade overall. The game was obviously much different back then, and it played as such.

The second is that, in all of these 11 occurances, (12 if you want to include that push in the Rams/Titans), the underdog only put up 17+ points twice, while the favorites only hit 30+ once, with the Dallas Cowboys landing right on 30 in SB 28 which was the only one that had a total in the 50's. What this suggests to me, is that if this is indeed the way you are looking at SB 54 this year, adding in a San Francisco team total 'under' bet may be in your best interest as well. Currently that line is siting at 26.5 for the 49ers, a number not one underdog has surpassed in this result.

Underdog-Over

This is the combination that's been most effective in recent years, as it connected in the 2018, 2014, 2013, and 2009 games. It's six hits in this century is tied with the underdog – under combination in the 2000's for the most, and has seen the eventual winner of the game put up 30+ in seven of it's last eight connections. That's good news for those of you who like San Francisco's chances this year, especially since the underdog has won the game outright seven of the 10 total times it's happened.

However, there are a few conflicting scenarios that do apply to this year's game. On the negative side, the underdog-over combination has never connected when a total was in the 50s, it's only happened twice in the 13 times we've had a #1 seed going against a #2, and one of the more recent times it's hit was when Baltimore beat this San Francisco 49ers organization back in early 2013.

Yet, on the plus side of things for the 49ers, when it was AFC West teams (currently) who entered the game as the favorite like the Chiefs are this year, this combination has connected three times, going 3-2 overall in Super Bowl history.

Underdog-Under

This blind correlation has connected six times this century as well, but the key part of this one hitting is it's propensity to do so when the game had a total in the 50's. In the 11 Super Bowls that closed with totals in that range, the underdog-under combination has connected five differnt times, all coming since SB 30 when Dallas beat Pittsburgh in early 1996.

Kansas City's only Super Bowl victory (SB 4) came when this combination connected, although the Chiefs were the ones getting all the points (+12) back then. That's not the case this yer, as this combination is generally one that should be saved for the Super Bowls with much bigger point spreads. Of the 13 times it's happened, only three of them closed with point spreads of -3 or less, and only one of those three have occurred since SB 18 back in early 1984.

Current Season Breakdown

KC ATS Win-Over: 5 times
KC ATS Win-Under: 7 times
KC ATS Loss-Over: 4 times
KC ATS Loss-Under: 1 time
KC ATS Pushed once, going 'over'

SF ATS Win-Over: 4 times
SF ATS Win-Under: 6 times
SF ATS Loss-Over: 4 times
SF ATS Loss-Under: 2 times
SF ATS Pushed once, going 'over'
SF ATS won, pushing on total once

Couple things to note from that list, and they really don't do much to help decifier a play.

One, both the Chiefs and 49ers best correlation was in winning ATS and staying 'under' the total. That's all well and good by itself, but when you look at their ATS losses, it's rare for either of them to fail to cover a spread and stay 'under' the total. Obviously, one of them is going to lose ATS in this year's Super Bowl, so I'm not entirely sure you can use that to help you in this case regardless. Both teams have been relatively equal in terms of O/U results overall this year – SF is 9-8-1 O/U and KC is 10-8 O/U – too, so not really a decisive edge either way.

Final Thoughts

Given that it's no secret on this site that I've had the Chiefs to win it all since the summer time (over the Chicago Bears back then cough, cough), I have no reason to get off that side now that KC has reached this point. Oh, and by the way, the last three times an AFC team has gone 'over' in the Divisional round and 'over' in the Championship round, they won the Super Bowl the following week (New England last year, New England vs Atlanta, and New England vs Seattle). So that leaves me with two options in this scenario, favorite-over or favorite-under.

And in this scenario, I do believe I've got to go with the favorite-under combination and here is why:

One, even knowing the initial money flocked to the 'over' on the total, I just can't bring myself to go with the favorite-over correlation. Yes, it's connected the most in history, but it's been a brutal way to go this century, and you do need a lot of things to go right. Both teams have found their most ATS success in games that have stayed 'under' the posted total so there is that as well, and you've got to feel like Kansas City feels like they'd be tempting fate a bit with another high-scoring affair like they had in the two games to get them to this point.

Historically, the 10 of the 11 times the favorite-under combination has hit has come when the point spread was a touchdown or less which is nice here, and while it's only connected twice with a total in the 50's, having one of those be last year is somewhat reassuring as well. Last year's game was expected to be a back-and-forth shootout between two great offenses, not totally unlike what many expect to see this year.

Finally, I do believe that when all is said and done, the bigger decision for the oddsmakers will be on the total, as it's much more likely to be heavily one-sided on the 'over' then either side is going to be. Siding with the oddsmakers is never a bad thing (as long as you are doing so for other reasons and not just to do so), and it's hard not to see plenty more 'over' money come in on this game as we get closer to kick-off.

So in terms of a correlated parlay, it's a unit on the favorite (Kansas City) and the 'under' (54) for me, although I might wait a bit to see if that total doesn't climb a little higher.

Super Bowl 54 Parlay Best Bet

Kansas City (-1.5) & Over (52.5) +230 (Bet $100 to win $230)

Odds provided by FanDuel (IN, NJ, PA & WV only)
Odds Subject to Change - T&C's Apply, 21+

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