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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:55 PM

SB Props - Team Best Bets

Super Bowl 54 Prop Resources

Undecided on the Chiefs or 49ers in Super Bowl 54? Can’t figure out to play the ‘over’ or the ‘under’ next Sunday?

Fortunately for bettors on the fence, sportsbooks have increased their proposition wagers market for Super Bowl 54. Similar to past finales, a group of our top NFL experts are offering up their predictions on the most popular “props” for the finale between Kansas City and San Francisco.

This season, we’ve broken the props wagers into specific categories. “Best Bets” with analysis are provided on a handful of them as well.

Team Props - Best Bets

Odds provided by DraftKings (IN, NJ & PA only 21+)
Subject to Change

Joe Nelson - Under Chiefs Total Points (27.5)

In half of Kansas City’s regular season games they were held to 27 or fewer points and this number is inflated with 86 points from Kansas City in two playoff wins. The Chiefs fell behind substantially in both of those games however and in his last eight games Patrick Mahomes only has two 300 yard passing games. Mahomes has had to lead the team in rushing as well and San Francisco will present one of the top pass defenses the Chiefs have seen all season long. The 49ers won’t aim to compete in a shootout in this game as long sustained drives will be the goal, likely keeping the scoring down on both sides. San Francisco was second in the NFL in allowing only 2.4 red zone trips per game on average while allowing an average of only 20.6 pass completions per game.

Hank Goldberg - Team to score longest TD - San Francisco

While the eye-test will make you believe that Kansas City is the more explosive of the two teams because of points scored per game, San Francisco has shown more big-play ability this season. The Chiefs had 42 passing plays this season of 25-plus yards but the 49ers were right behind them with 39. The difference was the running game and the Niners had 64 carries this season that resulted in 10-yards or more, ranked second in the league behind the run-first Baltimore Ravens. The Chiefs only had 33 rushing plays above 10 yards, ranked 29th. I’ll side with the statistics and expect SF to connect on a big play in the Super Bowl.

Tony Mejia - Special Teams Touchdown Scored - No

Fun Fact - There have been 14 Special Teams touchdowns scored in the Super Bowl. The first occuring in Super Bowl VII (7) and the most recent taking place in Super Bowl XLVIII (48). With that being said -- there won’t be a special teams touchdown because neither team really wants to bother with returning kickoffs and the Kansas City Chiefs only send wide receiver Tyreek Hill back to return punts if they need a lift. Both trust their conventional offense, so it would be foolish to take a shot on this prop.

Kevin Rogers - Two Point Conversion - No

In the last nine games, the San Francisco 49ers have attempted a pair of two-point conversions, failing on both tries. This season, the 49ers converted on two conversions. The Kansas City Chiefs attempted only one two-point conversion on the season and succeeded, but that is not a preferred method for them.

Team Props - Consensus

Team Props
Expert Nelson Goldberg Blunt Rogers Mejia Franco Williams Consensus
Chiefs Total Points Under Under Over Over Under Over Over Over
SF Total Points Under Over Under Under Under Over Under Under
Team to score longest TD KC KC KC KC KC KC KC KC
Team to score Longest FG SF KC KC KC SF KC KC KC

MVP Props - Best Bets

We asked seven VegasInsider.com experts to provide three different players to win the Super Bowl Most Valuable Player award based on the betting board.

Odds provided by DraftKings (IN, NJ & PA only 21+)
Subject to Change

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes (+115) and San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo (+225) were the only two options as favorites and all of experts believe the Chiefs leader will take home the award if Kansas City wins the game.

Matt Blunt dissected the MVP award further in this detailed betting piece and he believes Deebo Samuel (33/1) of the 49ers is worth a look at a middle tier price.

Long shots do happen in the Super Bowl and our stable have highlighted multiple players to watch.

"Considering the Super Bowl total was bet up immediately in the manner it was, it's pretty clear that the betting public is ignoring the defense entirely here and expecting fireworks," Mejia said. "San Francisco has the league's top pass defense and can get after Mahomes with the likes of Nick Bosa, who at +2500, is the defensive player most likely to win a Super Bowl MVP.

"Kansas City's Chris Jones (+9000) would be my choice now that he's had a few to heal up some more after returning to be a disruptive force in the AFC Championship, but teammates like safety Tyrann Mathieu (+6000) and DE Frank Clark (+8000) are viable candidates. On the 49ers side, corner Richard Sherman (+8000) and DE Dee Ford, who was traded from Kansas City to San Francisco prior to the season, could rise up."

SB54 MVP - Consensus

MVP Choice
Expert Favorite Middle Tier Long Shot
Joe Nelson KC - Patrick Mahomes SF - Deebo Samuel SF - Matt Breida
Hank Goldberg KC - Patrick Mahomes SF - Deebo Samuel SF - Kwon Alexander
Matt Blunt KC - Patrick Mahomes SF - Deebo Samuel SF - Arik Armstead
Kevin Rogers KC - Patrick Mahomes KC - Tyreek Hill SF - Richard Sherman
Tony Mejia KC - Patrick Mahomes KC - Tyreek Hill KC - Chris Jones
Mark Franco KC - Patrick Mahomes KC - Sammy Watkins SF - Richard Sherman
Joe Williams KC - Patrick Mahomes SF - George Kittle KC - Tyrann Mathieu
Consensus KC - Patrick Mahomes SF - Deebo Samuel SF - Richard Sherman

Meet the VI Experts

Joe Nelson – Senior NFL writer and handicapper for VegasInsider.com. “Nelly” puts in the work and makes it looks easy.

Hank Goldberg – Staple of the industry and legendary Vegas expert. The “Hammer” has covered every Super Bowl since it began.

Matt Blunt – The VegasInsider.com genius behind our weekly “Best Bets” and also the master of data mining. His must-read SB54 pieces include analysis:

Kevin Rogers – Along with being host of the Bet and Collect Podcast, K-Rog provides his informative articles and experts picks to VI for multiple sports.

Tony Mejia – The best volume handicapper on VegasInsider.com, creator of the Antony Dinero brand. You can listen to him as a regular guest and co-host on the Bet and Collect podcast weekly.

Mark Franco – The longest tenured handicapper on VegasInsider.com, with over 25-plus years of industry experience.

Joe Williams – Built his chops by playing Daily Fantasy Sports and has turned that experience into sports betting profits. Provides weekly articles and picks for VI.


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