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NFL

Jan 30, 2020

SB Props - WR-TE Best Bets

Super Bowl 54 Prop Resources

Undecided on the Chiefs or 49ers in Super Bowl 54? Can’t figure out to play the ‘over’ or the ‘Under’ next Sunday?

Fortunately for bettors on the fence, sportsbooks have increased their proposition wagers market for Super Bowl 54. Similar to past finales, a group of our top NFL experts are offering up their predictions on the most popular “props” for the finale between Kansas City and San Francisco.

This season, we’ve broken the props wagers into specific categories.

Wide Receiver & Tight End Props - Best Bets

Player Prop Odds provided by DraftKings (IN, NJ & PA only 21+)
Subject to Change

We asked six VegasInsider.com experts to provide their "Best Bets" on a handful of the most popular prop wagers for the two running back in Super Bowl 54.

Joe Nelson - Receiving Yards Emmanuel Sanders Under 40.5

298 of the 869 receiving yards for Emmanuel Sanders came in his first four games of the season, catching passes from Joe Flacco with the Broncos. He had only two big games with the 49ers while held to 41 or fewer receiving yards in nine of 12 games with San Francisco. He was targeted only three times in the two playoff wins for San Francisco and was targeted more than six times only twice in 12 games with Jimmy Garoppolo after getting 44 targets in seven games with Denver.

Joe Nelson - Receiving Yards Tyreek Hill Under 77.5

Hill is one of the most dynamic receivers in the NFL and a consistent big play threat but this is an inflated number, particularly with the 49ers in zone coverage often to limit big plays. Hill only topped 77 yards three times in 12 games and hasn't done so since Week 10 when he had 11 catches in the loss to the Titans. He has been held to 72 or fewer yards in each of the past eight games and containing him will be a priority for San Francisco.

Joe Williams - Most Receiving Yards - George Kittle +400

I like 49ers George Kittle to post the most receiving yards in this game. He is an absolute beast, and he’ll be on the same page with Jimmy Garoppolo, even if the latter isn’t great with returning his text messages off the field, something we learned earlier this week in an interview. Kittle was a non-factor in the first two playoff games, totaling just four catches and 35 yards. Expect a breakout. The Chiefs allowed 96 reception, 961 yards and five touchdowns to opposing tight ends during the regular season. The catches were the most allowed to opposing tight ends in the AFC, and the yardage total was fifth-highest in the NFL.

Tony Mejia -- Most Receiving Yards - Deebo Samuel +900

Deebo Samuel looks like the top value pick in this Super Bowl. His bar is set low since tight end George Kittle is the big name and Emmanuel Sanders is the veteran receiver with Super Bowl experience. Samuel, a rookie, can do damage on short and intermediate routs and shows great burst. He won’t attract as much attention early. On the Kansas City side, an offense that will likely need to keep Travis Kelce back to block in order to give Patrick Mahomes additional time to work should utilize Tyreek Hill often, but he’s got work to do to top his numbers. I like him to get there, but secondary threats like Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman also offer value.

Joe Nelson - Most Receiving Yards - Travis Kelce +350

Down the stretch in the biggest moments Kelce has been the go-to receiver for the Chiefs, actually leading the team in receiving yards in six of the final eight games of the season for the Chiefs going back to Week 11. He was also the leading receiver for Kansas City in many of the games against tough defenses that compare favorably to San Francisco including late season wins over New England, Denver, and Chicago, as well as the playoff win against Houston.

Joe Nelson - Player To Have Longest Reception - Sammy Watkins +800

Watkins had the longest reception for the Chiefs in both playoff wins with a 48-yard catch vs. Houston and a 60-yard catch vs. Tennessee. Watkins is likely to be the all-or-nothing option for the Chiefs down the sideline and catches a favorable price to be the big-play victor in the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl 54 WR Props - Consensus Picks

KC and SF Player Props at BetMGM (NJ only 21+)
Subject to Change

WR Props - Receiving Yards - Consensus
49ers Nelson Goldberg Blunt Rogers Mejia Williams Consensus
Emmanuel Sanders 40.5 Under Over Over Under Under Under Under
Deebo Samuel 53.5 Over Over Over Over Over Over Over
George Kittle 73.5 Under Under Under Over Under Over Under
Chiefs Nelson Goldberg Blunt Rogers Mejia Williams Consensus
Tyreek Hill 77.5 Under Over Over Over Over Under Over
Sammy Watkins 50.5 Over Under Under Over Over Over Over
Travice Kelce 73.5 Over Under Under Under Under Over Under


WR Props - Receptions - Consensus
49ers Nelson Goldberg Blunt Rogers Mejia Williams Consensus
Emmanuel Sanders 3.5 Under Under Over Over Under Under Under
Deebo Samuel 4.5 Over Under Over Over Over Over Over
George Kittle 5.5 Under Under Under Under Under Over Under
Chiefs Nelson Goldberg Blunt Rogers Mejia Williams Consensus
Tyreek Hill 5.5 Under Under Over Under Over Over Push
Sammy Watkins 3.5 Over Over Under Over Over Under Over
Travis Kelce 5.5 Over Under Over Under Under Over Push

Super Bowl 54 WR Top Performer Props

Wide Receiver Player Props at BetMGM (NJ only 21+)
Subject to Change

WR Props - SB54 Most Receiving Yards - Consensus
Props Nelson Goldberg Blunt Rogers Mejia Williams
Tyreek Hill +275 - Leader - - - -
Travis Kelce +350 Leader - - - - -
George Kittle +400 - - - - - Leader
Sammy Watkins +800 - - - - - -
Deebo Samuel +900 - - Leader Leader Leader -
Emmanuel Sanders +1200 - - - - - -
Mecole Hardman +2500 - - - - - -
Raheem Mostert +3000 - - - - - -
Demarcus Robinson +3300 - - - - - -
Kendrick Bourne +3300 - - - - - -
Damien Williams +3500 - - - - - -



Wide Receiver Player Props at BetMGM (NJ only 21+)
Subject to Change

WR Props - Player To Have Longest Reception - Consensus
Props Nelson Goldberg Blunt Rogers Mejia Williams
Tyreek Hill +350 Leader - - Leader - -
George Kittle +550 - Leader - - - Leader
Deebo Samuel +550 - - - - - -
Travis Kelce +700 - - - - - -
Sammy Watkins +800 - - - - - -
Emmanuel Sanders +900 - - - - - -
Mecole Hardman +1100 - - Leader Leader - -
Demarcus Robinson +1100 - - - - - -

Meet the VI Experts

Joe Nelson – Senior NFL writer and handicapper for VegasInsider.com. “Nelly” puts in the work and makes it looks easy.

Hank Goldberg – Staple of the industry and legendary Vegas expert. The “Hammer” has covered every Super Bowl since it began.

Matt Blunt – The VegasInsider.com genius behind our weekly “Best Bets” and also the master of data mining. His must-read SB54 pieces include analysis:

Kevin Rogers – Along with being host of the Bet and Collect Podcast, K-Rog provides his informative articles and experts picks to VI for multiple sports.

Tony Mejia – The best volume handicapper on VegasInsider.com, creator of the Antony Dinero brand. You can listen to him as a regular guest and co-host on the Bet and Collect podcast weekly.

Joe Williams – Built his chops by playing Daily Fantasy Sports and has turned that experience into sports betting profits. Provides weekly articles and picks for VI.

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