Betting Recap – Week 4

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

16 minute read

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Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

• Eagles (+8, ML +300) at 49ers, 25-20
• Browns (+3.5, ML +200) at Cowboys, 49-38
• Vikings (+3.5, ML +160) at Texans, 31-23
• Panthers (+3, ML +145) vs. Cardinals, 31-21

The largest favorites to cover

• Chiefs (-11.5) vs. Patriots, 26-10
• Packers (-5) vs. Falcons, 30-16
• Seahawks (-4.5) at Dolphins, 31-23
• Bills (-3) at Raiders, 30-23
• Saints (-3) at Lions, 35-29

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

Over and under bettors went on a roller coaster ride in the Philadelphia Eagles-San Francisco 49ers game on Sunday Night Football. The Eagles opened up the scoring with a touchdown and two-point conversion before the 49ers answered with a touchdown and standard extra point. There were 15 total points on the board, and the over was trending after 15 minutes. However, the two sides played a scoreless quarter, and the halftime score was 8-7. Under bettors were feeling very good about things with just 25 total points on the board heading into the final quarter.

With just 5:50 left in the game, there were still 32 points on the board until QB Carson Wentz hooked up with recent acquisiton WR Travis Fulgham for a 42-yard tip-toe job down the sideline, making it 18-14 in favor of the Eagles. Just eight seconds later the Eagles scored again, as CFL import LB Alex Singleton stepped in front of an errant QB Nick Mullens pass for a 30-yard interception return for touchdown. All of a sudden under (45.5) went from feeling confident to terrible within a matter of moments.

After the pick-six, the Niners removed Mullens in favor of QB C.J. Beathard, and the latter led a scoring drive to make it 25-20 pending the two-point conversion. Beathard threw a strike to TE George Kittle in the end zone, but the sure-handed receiver who was having a monster game was unable to corral it. The under was hanging on by a half-point, but there was still time left on the clock. The Eagles got the ball back, but were forced to punt just under two minutes, giving San Francisco another chance. The Niners drove down to the Philly 33, and Beathard threw a desperation pass into the end zone which touched hands, but eventually fell out of bounds. Over bettors must've felt like they lost twice.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board in Week 4 was on Thursday night in the Denver Broncos-New York Jets (41) game. Broncos QB Brett Rypien made his first NFL start and he ended up throwing three interceptions, but he still hang on to win. And the Broncos posted 37 points, nearly taking care of the over themselves in the nine-point victory.

The second-lowest total on the board, and lowest on the Sunday slate, was the Los Angeles Chargers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (42) cross-country battle. The teams got off to a quick start, as L.A. fired out to a 14-7 lead after 15 minutes, and a 24-14 lead at halftime. The Chargers already had a season-high for points in a single game with another entire half to go. They Bolts were averaging just 17.3 PPG through the first three outings, and the 'under' was 3-0. That changed Sunday, as the Bucs won 38-31.

The highest total on the board was in the Cleveland Browns-Dallas Cowboys (56.5) game, and this total wasn't even close to not cashing. The Browns fired up 31 points in the first half, leading 31-14 at the break. They led 41-14 after 45 minutes, so all that was needed was a field goal or more in the final quarter. That wasn't a problem, as the Cowboys made a furious run in the final 15, outscoring the Browns 24-8. The Browns held on for the 49-38 win, a total of 87 points for the highest-scoring game of the 2020 season. The point total eclipsed the 79 points the Falcons and Cowboys combined for in Week 2.

In the three primetime games we saw the under go 2-1, with the Monday night game between the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers a low-scoring affair. Technically, if you include the rescheduled New England Patriots-Kansas City Chiefs game, the primetime games in Week 4 were 3-1. But since that was an early game for Sunday, and not a SNF or MNF game, we'll include in the Sunday totals.

So far this season the over is 6-7 (46.2%) across 13 primetime games. In 2019, the 'over' was just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Buccaneers posted a 38-31 win over the Chargers in Week 4, failing to cover a 7.5-point number just barely. QB Tom Brady threw five touchdowns, becoming the oldest QB in NFL history to throw for five scores in a single game, and he spread the wealth to five different receivers. They have now won three in a row, but they're 2-2 ATS overall. The point total was a season high, and they're averaging 34.5 PPG in two games at the Ray Jay, both over results. On the road, they're 1-1 SU/ATS while going 1-1 on the over/under, too. They're averaging just 26.5 PPG in their two trips so far this season. The Bears were defeated for the first time, falling to 3-1 SU/2-2 ATS. They're 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS in two games at Soldier Field this season, both under results. The Bears are averaging just 14.0 PPG in two home games, and allowing just 16.0 PPG.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Bengals picked up their first win in the QB Joe Burrow era, topping the Jacksonville Jaguars. Cincinnati has now covered three straight games, including both of their road games. MVP QB Lamar Jackson and the Ravens won 31-17 on the road against the Washington Football Team, a push on the 14-point number. The Ravens are 0-1-1 ATS in their past two after going 2-0 ATS to open the season. The over was the first in four games after three straight under results. Baltimore has failed to cover its past three home games against Cincinnati, too.

Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

The Colts pushed past the Bears by a 19-11 score at Soldier Field, as they have now won and covered three in a row after their opening game loss at Jacksonville. They have tightened up defensively, too. In Week 1 they allowed 27 points, but they have allowed a total of just 29 points in their three-game winning streak, allowing 9.7 PPG. The under has hit in three in a row, too. For the Browns, they are streaking, winning three straight while scoring at least 34 points while the 'over' is also 3-0 during the run. Cleveland has scored 30 or more points in three straight games for the first time since 1968 when they turned the trick seven times.

Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Chargers won 16-13 in Week 1, but they have dropped three straight one-score games since. Rookie QB Justin Herbert put up big numbers in a 38-31 loss at Tampa Bay as the 'over' hit for the first time in four games this season. The defense also allowed 38 points, a season high, as they had yielded just 19.0 PPG in the first three. The Saints are averaging 30.8 PPG while yielding 30.8 PPG, so it's no surprise the 'over' is a perfect 4-for-4 to date.

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